Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[pasnownut]

53 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Trust the vibe! We are due for a December to Remember

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Nice trends continue on nooner GFS.  Still plenty of sorting out, but the look is not hard to stare at for this early in the season.  

[GrandmasterB]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Nice trends continue on nooner GFS.  Still plenty of sorting out, but the look is not hard to stare at for this early in the season.  

Agreed. A little snowier for the Sunday one and less snowy for the mid-week threat, but hard to complain for early December. 

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Agreed. A little snowier for the Sunday one and less snowy for the mid-week threat, but hard to complain for early December. 

Yeah, all we can do is look at large scale features and sort them out before we start the backyard stuff.  Safe to say many/all backyards will be white and thats a big win this early.  Verbatim entire sub is gettin some snow.  As Mag suggested, its a progressive pattern, so while 6z snowmaps were a virtual pants tent....one should use much caution when observing. IMO 12z a much more believable/achievable scenario.  Im headed to cabin Friday, so I'll be looking from afar.  Hope you guys can reel this one in for us. 

 

[WmsptWx]

The subforum East of 99 are due for a non-screwing. 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

OK, I’m in.

That pattern next week has evolved into something much more favorable on modelling the last few days since my last post. Gone is dumping the trough in the west and building southeast ridging. Instead, we’re bringing the energy for what is now Sunday’s system out quicker. While that low still cuts, the faster timing and fairly weak low invites a potential light snowfall/mix event in at least interior C-PA with some cold air still in place. So that’s actually the first thing I’m looking at with this period.

That system resets the boundary, and we have a nice placement of the PV over Hudson Bay to help push down any semblance of SE ridging and we’re set for this Tues-Wed system that is looking way more wintry than it did several days ago. GFS is obviously a big and widespread snowstorm for a lot of folks. The Euro and Euro Ensemble are in fact showing this system as well. 0z Euro had the widespread precip but a more confined snow area, 6z Euro was shaping to look pretty decent but ran out of hours. Euro GPT doesn’t have it at all and those ensembles are weakly hinting at the system. Key will be a balance of amping this system up enough and placing/strength of the high to the north to set up cold and a more widespread snow swath. The feature itself looks progressive (no closed 500mb low or neg tilted trough) but low originates in the Gulf, so moisture source is there. 

It just moved. 

[canderson]

Oh I had .59” rain yesterday. Glorious stuff. 

[pasnownut]

After looking over the 12GFS again, that saying "the hits keep on coming" comes to mind.  Several chances beyond next week.  Looks like we get out of the winter gate runnin in the right direction for sure.  Who wins....dunno, but likely will have an active pattern/board.  Another glance at tellies while not overly supportive of troughing in the east, they are headed twds neutral, and MJO also headed into favorable 7 which is a colder signal.  How it all rolls....gonna find out in a few days.  

 

Once again, Happy Turk Day to my fellow weather homies.

Much to be thankful for.  

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

56 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, all we can do is look at large scale features and sort them out before we start the backyard stuff.  Safe to say many/all backyards will be white and thats a big win this early.  Verbatim entire sub is gettin some snow.  As Mag suggested, its a progressive pattern, so while 6z snowmaps were a virtual pants tent....one should use much caution when observing. IMO 12z a much more believable/achievable scenario.  Im headed to cabin Friday, so I'll be looking from afar.  Hope you guys can reel this one in for us. 

 

Yes sir - big time snows are not favorable with the pattern. We can win much easier with a wave running under us that brings a 3-6", 4-8" type of deal. I'll sign immediately on that line. 

Safe travels to and home! 

[pasnownut]

Just now, pasnownut said:

After looking over the 12GFS again, that saying "the hits keep on coming" comes to mind.  Several chances beyond next week.  Looks like we get out of the winter gate runnin in the right direction for sure.  While not a lock, other majors keep "the look".  Who wins....dunno, but likely will have an active pattern/board. 

Another glance at tellies while not overly supportive of troughing in the east, they are headed twds neutral, and MJO also headed into favorable 7 which is a colder signal.  How it all rolls....gonna find out in a few days.  

 

Once again, Happy Turk Day to my fellow weather homies.

Much to be thankful for.  

 

 

 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes sir - big time snows are not favorable with the pattern. We can win much easier with a wave running under us that brings a 3-6", 4-8" type of deal. I'll sign immediately on that line. 

Safe travels to and home! 

Thanks pal.  Agreed.  First week of Dec 3-6" is a great win.  No matter what one run "showed". 

 

Same to you and yours.  

[Superstorm]

Thanks pal.  Agreed.  First week of Dec 3-6" is a great win.  No matter what one run "showed". 
 
Same to you and yours.  

I like 4” to 8” better.


.

[pasnownut]

26 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

I like 4” to 8” better.


.

what a difference a couple inches makes....

 

[ChescoWx]

All 3 of the major ensemble or average runs of the European / GFS and Canadian all have some measurable snow on average on Tuesday. 

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

All 3 of the major ensemble or average runs of the European / GFS and Canadian all have some measurable snow on average on Tuesday. 

I feel cheated.

[Blizzard of 93]

Good to see the 12z GFS, Canadian & Euro each showing a winter storm chance for Tuesday at this point.

Plenty of time to sort out the details, but it would be great to get on the board so early even if it ends up as a light event:

It should be just the beginning of our chances in December.

[Jns2183]

So does wind start tonight and go through Friday?

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