Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

27 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

That resembles (but is still less) than WPC's updated map, which took a big step back with their latest update. 

[canderson]

I’ll go on a limb MDT doesn’t get .75” for this upcoming event. More like .4-5”. 

[Voyager]

8 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

30 this morning with fog and frost.

31 this morning here. How many times over the past year or so have you beaten me by one degree??? 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Home from the Poconos. Looks like my low last night was 36. Also never reported my final tally from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, which was .47”. 

[mahantango#1]

2 hours ago, Voyager said:

31 this morning here. How many times over the past year or so have you beaten me by one degree??? 

You live in town, I live in the boonies...so you technically should be a little warmer.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, canderson said:

I’ll go on a limb MDT doesn’t get .75” for this upcoming event. More like .4-5”. 

Getting warmed up for this Winter I see, Lol!

[Itstrainingtime]

22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Getting warmed up for this Winter I see, Lol!

Haha! I thought the same thing, but in this case he might be right.

[Yardstickgozinya]

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Haha! I thought the same thing, but in this case he might be right.

One of my most useful methodologies i've developed here at the forum is to blend the Canderson Forecasting System with the Blizcon. This seems to always produce extremely accurate and reliable forecasts for me. 

[canderson]

43 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Getting warmed up for this Winter I see, Lol!

Trends are not our friend if you want good, heavy rain here. 

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

You live in town, I live in the boonies...so you technically should be a little warmer.

You're right. If Tamaqua were big time, I'd be in the inner city.

[Jns2183]

I am amazed at the variation in model rainfall outputs for this storm. By Monday at noon the range is 0.1" to 2.0". Further they each have the storm doing something different and run to run consistency is horrible. I hope this is not a preview of how the models will be this winter.

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[Mount Joy Snowman]

3 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

I am amazed at the variation in model rainfall outputs for this storm. By Monday at noon the range is 0.1" to 2.0". Further they each have the storm doing something different and run to run consistency is horrible. I hope this is not a preview of how the models will be this winter.

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It surely will be, and we will all handle it like mature adults haha. 

[mahantango#1]

[Jns2183]

Current model predictions for Harrisburg
Gfs .4" has over 1" just east
Gfs AI .8"
Euro .7"
Euro AI .2"
Gdps .2
Ukmet .1
Nam 2.0"

Each of these models somehow are also all on their own little islands with the evolution of this storm and rain distribution. Each one wants to setup a secondary max somewhere in central to north central Pennsylvania with a nice big moat in between. Thank God this cluster f**** of a storm isn't a snow storm because it seems blending and averging precipitation amounts has a high chance of busting both high and low in many areas and good luck figuring that out before tomorrow

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[Superstorm]

Occasional light mist


.