2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, Hvward said:

It really is a lose-lose situation.  We either finally get one right or we are always wrong.

You can't make the public happy...

[strongwxnc]

Just now, Hvward said:

It really is a lose-lose situation.  We either finally get one right or we are always wrong.

For MBY only, I will bet the streak until it is over. 

But Im trying real hard Ringo.. 

[Met1985]

Just now, Maggie Valley Steve said:

17 here at the house. GSP stated in their morning AFD the the National Blend is suggesting .25 to .50 of QPF with ratios of 15 to 20:1. 

That would be significant. 

[BretWx]

2 minutes ago, Hvward said:

It really is a lose-lose situation.  We either finally get one right or we are always wrong.

And many people forgot us down here where that cold wedge stuck the entire time. Tree loss all over. A lot of us are STILL iced in. Just because it's not right for everyone, doesn't mean it wasn't for some of us. Social media is a curse when it comes to forecasting/etc. and blaming meteorologist. Also, doesn't help that some of the hobbyist post the first model run a week out and scream that the sky is falling.

[BretWx]

12K NAM looks to be more east.

[wncsnow]

Decent jump for you guys too

[BretWx]

SREF MEAN is up to 4in at KAVL compared to 2 or so this AM.

[BretWx]

12Z GFS is a nice hit. And then factoring in the 20:1 mentions in this morning's discussion. Would be a solid one. 

[ncjoaquin]

It's probably blasphemy to say that I would be thrilled with 7 inches and let the ENC fellows have the 24 inches that the GFS shows. There are too many problems that come with 2 feet of snow! I know I am a stranded loner on an island by myself with that opinion, lol!

I mean. Don't  get me wrong. I would take it ! But, any decent snow works for me. 

[Hvward]

It's probably blasphemy to say that I would be thrilled with 7 inches and let the ENC fellows have the 24 inches that the GFS shows. There are too many problems that come with 2 feet of snow! I know I am a stranded loner on an island by myself with that opinion, lol!
I mean. Don't  get me wrong. I would take it ! But, any decent snow works for me. 

Agree with this. I want 12”-15” max.

[ncjoaquin]

Just now, Hvward said:

Agree with this. I want 12”-15” max.

That would work! 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

Posts like this is what makes Hunter's job tougher. 

Have they even looked at the models as it pertains to WNC, especially the border counties?

[BretWx]

Canadian ticked up: 

[BretWx]

19 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

It's probably blasphemy to say that I would be thrilled with 7 inches and let the ENC fellows have the 24 inches that the GFS shows. There are too many problems that come with 2 feet of snow! I know I am a stranded loner on an island by myself with that opinion, lol!

I mean. Don't  get me wrong. I would take it ! But, any decent snow works for me. 

Last storm, I forget what year it was at this point, we got 16in down here. We were stuck inside up the hill for 5 days.

[BooneWX]

@Hvwardvideo update today? I’m yearning for your thoughts. Seems like the AI data is really honing in on higher totals west under our ULL.

[Met1985]

31 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Posts like this is what makes Hunter's job tougher. 

Have they even looked at the models as it pertains to WNC, especially the border counties?

They must be looking at just the low pressure because even without the low pressure forming we are still getting snow from the pv dropping down.  These maps are stupid for us.

[wncsnow]

I really think WNC gets crushed under the ULL.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

6 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

They must be looking at just the low pressure because even without the low pressure forming we are still getting snow from the pv dropping down.  These maps are stupid for us.

I think between things like this and sharing every model run with a general populous who doesn't have the understanding or context to process what they're looking at, it creates a mess. Social media meteorology needs correcting. Hunter does a fantastic job at it but others make his job more difficult than necessary. 

[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I think between things like this and sharing every model run with a general populous who doesn't have the understanding or context to process what they're looking at, it creates a mess. Social media meteorology needs correcting. Hunter does a fantastic job at it but others make his job more difficult than necessary. 

Yeah I swore I was going to start a weather blog this season but between life and a big promotion at work I've not had a lot of time.  Women also... Been busy there also lol.

[Hvward]

[mention=6495]Hvward[/mention]video update today? I’m yearning for your thoughts. Seems like the AI data is really honing in on higher totals west under our ULL.

Yeah I’ll get one out this afternoon. Had meetings most of the morning, but ready to see what the euro has for us.

[Met1985]

Confidence is increasing...

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[strongwxnc]

Confidence is increasing...

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Boom !


.

[cold air aloft]

I really hope this is a Murphy to Manteo  event., it would be great to see everyone cash in.

[Tyler Penland]

6/10"+ QPF for the northern mountains. If things hold I wouldn't be surprised if the Smokies get smoked (haha) with a couple feet up high.

[NGTim]

Met1985, am i looking at that correctly, a big trend West, even SW?  (Of course I’m focusing on NE GA). I seem to be on the fringe every other time I’ve checked.

[Sw NC weather]

Even with the “bad” trends today pretty much every model paint 0.3-0.5” of precip which would equate to a great 5-10” snowfall for us. Wouldn’t be surprised to see qpf go up closer to go time with the ULL.  

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, NGTim said:

Met1985, am i looking at that correctly, a big trend West, even SW?  (Of course I’m focusing on NE GA). I seem to be on the fringe every other time I’ve checked.

Mmmm yes you are in a decent spot I think but still early.  But I do like the trends overnight and today. 

[BooneWX]

Fine euro run. 3-6” considering higher ratios, more in the smokies. 

[BretWx]

I'd gladly take this 12Z EURO: 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Well, it certainly appears we will not be dealing with that old pesky warm nose this time! That said, I expect the discussion to ramp up with the WPC/NWS with the possibility of a Watch hoisted by tomorrow afternoon.