E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion

[ChescoWx]

Some unseasonably chilly air taking hold over the area this afternoon with dew points below freezing at 1pm. Actual air temperatures this afternoon are likely to remain in the 50's in the higher spots in the area. There is a frost advisory in effect for overnight tonight and I suspect that some of our valley locations in Chester and Berks Counties may actually see some near freezing temperatures which could effectively end the growing season in those spots. The higher ridge areas will stay well above freezing by morning. Attention will then turn to a potential nor’easter moving up the coast that could have some major impact to the area by the end of the weekend and start of next week. Oh and of course Go Phillies tonight!!

[Birds~69]

Cecily 30 years at action news today.. I'm old.

 

[JTA66]

19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Cecily 30 years at action news today.. I'm old.

 

Cecily is old...I want MORE Payton! 

[Birds~69]

29 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Cecily is old...I want MORE Payton! 

6/10

Needs to do something with the hair. It looks burnt/fried...

 

[LVblizzard]

There looks to be agreement among the models that 1-2” of rain will fall Saturday night into Monday, possibly more in localized areas. The details are still being ironed out as there are some differences in when the most impactful rain and wind will be. That could come anytime between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon.

[LanghorneSnow]

14 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

6/10

Needs to do something with the hair. It looks burnt/fried...

 

Okay, now you post a pic of yourself, and we can all compare.

 

now, back to the weather!

[BBasile]

First frost this morning.  Low was 37.2F.  

[Hurricane Agnes]

Bottomed out at 40 this morning here in NW Philly, the lowest since April 13 IMBY.  That will probably trigger some leaf coloring in the area (most of the tree leaves around here are still mostly green, with a few starting to yellow and others going direct to brown - probably from the lack of rain).

Currently clear and 44 with dp 35.

P.S. - I know Philly is in mourning this morning with a trifecta of Philly teams losing last night. 

[Birds~69]

2 hours ago, LanghorneSnow said:

Okay, now you post a pic of yourself, and we can all compare.

 

now, back to the weather!

Gave her a 6/10 which is above average. But she could do better. Settle down...

[ChescoWx]

Many spots below 400 feet ASL saw freezing temperatures this morning across Chester and Berks counties. Freezing temperatures were recorded at West Chester, Chester Springs, West Bradford Twp. Devault, Warwick Township and Nottingham. The coldest reading was the 28.9 degrees at Warwick. Here in East Nantmeal at 685 feet ASL we recorded a low of 37.5. This is a record low for this date for this location with records since 2004. Regarding the weekend coastal storm some models have backed off a bit on the westward extent of the heaviest rain across Chester and Berks counties. Rain chances start to increase by tomorrow evening, and showers could continue into Monday.

[Chadzachadam]

The trend is my friend for Sunday! Looks like models are converging on the strung out euro solution. Euro AI and Ukie most consistently showed this and never really got on board with a full phase

[MGorse]

Had a low temperature of 34.8F early this morning.

[JTA66]

4 hours ago, Chadzachadam said:

The trend is my friend for Sunday! Looks like models are converging on the strung out euro solution. Euro AI and Ukie most consistently showed this and never really got on board with a full phase

12z Euro says, "what storm??"

It was over when the NYC and MA forums started threads on this.

[LVblizzard]

Still a ton of disagreement on the 0z models about the timing and intensity of this storm, despite the start of it being 1-2 days away. If this was winter this place would be going insane right now.

[Kevin Reilly]

5 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Still a ton of disagreement on the 0z models about the timing and intensity of this storm, despite the start of it being 1-2 days away. If this was winter this place would be going insane right now.

Models are really backing off.  Weaker storm almost looks like it splits in 2. 

[LVblizzard]

3 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Models are really backing off.  Weaker storm almost looks like it splits in 2. 

Euro still wants to tuck it into the coast and make Monday morning very rainy and windy. Most other models give us some showers with a light breeze and that’s it.

[JTA66]

God bless the NAM, it wants to bring the low up the Chesapeake.

[Birds~69]

Hope it stays 500 miles off the coast. I have some outside things to do and driving sucks in the rain. Plus it'll piss drought guy off and he'll post more...maybe even make a winter prediction if he hasn't already.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Hope it stays 500 miles off the coast. I have some outside things to do and driving sucks in the rain. Plus it'll piss drought guy off and he'll post more...maybe even make a winter prediction if he hasn't already.

All I know is that when drought guy posts, I expect the exact opposite to happen in my area.

Yes, he made this prediction on page 3 of thread on 9/19:

1. Being a neutral year, we are in for a real cold and snowy winter which will definitely help the groundwater tables. See lots of northeaster's and the potential freezing rain/sleet  events early in December. 

(Yep, this winter is cooked. I expect a warm winter with very little snow.)

[Birds~69]

13 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

All I know is that when drought guy posts, I expect the exact opposite to happen in my area.

Yes, he made this prediction on page 3 of thread on 9/19:

1. Being a neutral year, we are in for a real cold and snowy winter which will definitely help the groundwater tables. See lots of northeaster's and the potential freezing rain/sleet  events early in December. 

(Yep, this winter is cooked. I expect a warm winter with very little snow.)

Let's give him a chance, he has to hit once in a while. 

Cecily's should be coming up within a month. I think FOX has theirs within the same time frame. Did channel cbs3 and channel nbc10 gave up on the winter outlook forecast. Not sure?

[Hurricane Agnes]

Bottomed out at 48 this morning at midnight before clouds must have rolled in to kill any radiational cooling.  Ended up hitting 64 for a high just before noon and what are some intermittent bands of light rain that have passed overhead backing in from the SE.

It's currently 61 with a little band that gave me 0.03" so far, and dp 59.

Also saw that it appears La Nina is here through the rest of fall and into early winter - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

I think we sort of know the drill on that!

[JTA66]

First outer bands of Sandy 2 rolling through, 61F.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Still a ton of disagreement on the 0z models about the timing and intensity of this storm, despite the start of it being 1-2 days away. If this was winter this place would be going insane right now.

If this was winter, being a Nina, a good chunk of us would know getting a clean flush phase isnt usually in the cards.  Going to be a long winter for ppl that hug the long range stuff.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Models are really backing off.  Weaker storm almost looks like it splits in 2. 

Classic Nina rug pull?

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

All I know is that when drought guy posts, I expect the exact opposite to happen in my area.

Yes, he made this prediction on page 3 of thread on 9/19:

1. Being a neutral year, we are in for a real cold and snowy winter which will definitely help the groundwater tables. See lots of northeaster's and the potential freezing rain/sleet  events early in December. 

(Yep, this winter is cooked. I expect a warm winter with very little snow.)

Pretty sure this won't be neutral. But what do I know? (restrain yourselves from answering that last part, ty)

[Birds~69]

First heavy duty band just roll through. Sky's already brightening..

 

[Birds~69]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty sure this won't be neutral. But what do I know? (restrain yourselves from answering that last part, ty)

I was going to send someone out to wake you from your den. 

Winter thoughts or still compiling?

[Mikeymac5306]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty sure this won't be neutral. But what do I know? (restrain yourselves from answering that last part, ty)

You know it's getting colder when Wiggum is up and throwing in the bullpen. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I was going to send someone out to wake you from your den. 

Winter thoughts or still compiling?

I have some ideas but not going to unleash them yet. 

[Birds~69]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I have some ideas but not going to unleash them yet. 

Gotcha.

Another wave ready to roll through...