September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[FPizz]

Light rain, .02" haha

[winterwarlock]

81/67/82

 

 

[psv88]

81. .03

[SnoSki14]

What a blowtorch. We cool off maybe 1-2 days next week and then 80s well into October. Probably another top 3-5 warmest month likely 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, FPizz said:

Light rain, .02" haha

While in theory rain sounded like a good idea, in reality when you get light rain like this at night it really sucks.

It just makes the air more uncomfortable and much more humid and I've been up all night with a stuffy nose and sneezing.  I'm about to turn on my air conditioning.  A dry cool night with temperatures in the 50s is FAR superior to this.

I hope the next time it rains it's when we get a noreaster.  Either that or a strong frontal passage with cool dry weather behind it.  Not this nonsense of a nonstorm.  This is nothing but a godawful humidity pump.

 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What a blowtorch. We cool off maybe 1-2 days next week and then 80s well into October. Probably another top 3-5 warmest month likely 

I don't think it's going to be that extreme.  Temperatures in the 70s are fine. There is no hot air around to make it that hot.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Not quite 2017 but this will be a top five September for increase in mean temperature from 1st half to 2nd half ... I know we had some posts about this back before the increase began, and seems to me only two or three increased more than this one will. 

The odd thing is, 2017 was among the warmest Octobers, but so was 1947 which followed the exact opposite sequence of largest decrease from Sep 1-15 to Sep 16-30. 

1891 was another September with a large increase from first half to second half. I don't think 2025 can catch it for second place but it may finish third (for increase, not for average). 

I thought we weren't going to use 1891 because of its very limited dataset? The limited data at EWR in 1891 makes September look erroneously warm and makes October look erroneously cool lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

81/67/82

 

 

This is probably why I'm so uncomfortable tonight, this socalled storm is nothing more than a humidity pump that triggered my allergies.

[steve392]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

This is probably why I'm so uncomfortable tonight, this socalled storm is nothing more than a humidity pump that triggered my allergies.

Mid 60's leaving my house but it felt like a brick wall i was walking through with the humidity.  Disgusting out and sun isn't even up yet.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Not quite 2017 but this will be a top five September for increase in mean temperature from 1st half to 2nd half ... I know we had some posts about this back before the increase began, and seems to me only two or three increased more than this one will. 

This was the point that I made back in late August. Anytime we have had a cooldown like in August from June and July, the rebound warmer from the cooldown is of a greater magnitude than the cooldown was.

Several areas had top 10 warmth from June into July. But the August average temperatures did reach top 10 coolest. Now much of the area will finish September in the top 10 or top 20 warmest. The long range models underestimated this warm up.

But understanding this temperature pattern over the last decade can see where the model bias lies and forecast accordingly. The warm spots reached 90° earlier in the month and several stations had record highs and low maxes over the last 10 days. 

[Sundog]

I got almost as much rain from a system models were giving me ZERO precip as I did a few days ago when they were showing 1 to 2 inches.

0.13 last night compared to 0.19 a few days ago. 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't think it's going to be that extreme.  Temperatures in the 70s are fine. There is no hot air around to make it that hot.

There's a big ridge in the east. There's near 90F temps well into Canada forecast 

[STORMANLI]

0.07"

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought we weren't going to use 1891 because of its very limited dataset? The limited data at EWR in 1891 makes September look erroneously warm and makes October look erroneously cool lol.

 

The 1891 data is largely missing for Newark not NYC.

September 1–15, 1891: 70.1°

September 16–30, 1891: 74.0°

October 1891: 54.9°

 

[winterwarlock]

My station has reported rain 6 days in a row

 

Total: .42

[uofmiami]

0.19” in Syosset & 0.14” in Muttontown.

[lee59]

.12 here. This has been some stretch of non eventful weather.