September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[wdrag]

Am not using GEFS predictors etc beyond 2 weeks and messing up the anticipation mid month onward, like the August 2025 post. 

Instead I've added the 6-10 day issued yesterday, as well as the page you can go to look at CPC's daily updates of 6-10, 8-14 day, the weekly Friday updates of the 2-3 week and twice monthly updates of the monthly outlook, as well as other occasionally helpful predictors, based on the still nascent developing long ranging science beyond 2 weeks.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

[wdrag]

fwiw...5H pattern is looking interesting for me here as of the 06z/27 ensembles. my interest is west of I95 where it's been pretty darn dry since the 22nd.  Am I seeing opportunity for for 1/2-2" of rain in nw NJ next week beginning periodically Monday night Sept 1?  

[Stormlover74]

Euro still has a storm next week but not until Wednesday now. Given its track record of late and no other model support I'd say its a long shot

[donsutherland1]

Miscellaneous: New York City's two highest hourly rainfall amounts occurred in September. 3.15" fell from 8 pm-9 pm on September 1, 2021 and 3.05" fell from 11 pm - 12 am on September 4, 1913. Times are standardized (standard time).

Note: The highest average maximum temperature at Newark for a September that is missing no daily records is 83.3°, which was set in 2005. The erroneous 1891 value was left in the table.

[Stormlover74]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro still has a storm next week but not until Wednesday now. Given its track record of late and no other model support I'd say its a long shot

Aaaand its gone.

[wdrag]

21 hours ago, wdrag said:

fwiw...5H pattern is looking interesting for me here as of the 06z/27 ensembles. my interest is west of I95 where it's been pretty darn dry since the 22nd.  Am I seeing opportunity for for 1/2-2" of rain in nw NJ next week beginning periodically Monday night Sept 1?  

Updated 654A/28: I am seeing a probable approximate 1/2-2" rain event or periodic rains between Tue and Sat of next week. 00z/28  Ensembles coming into agreement with fairly substantial high amplitude troughing near and west of 80W longitude the middle of next week.    Who gets 2 and who gets relatively meager 1/2" far too early but finally in my viewer assembling, a more widespread event appears on the distant ensemble horizon.  The 2" reference is not necessarily the high end.

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Updated 654A/28: I am seeing a probable approximate 1/2-2" rain event or periodic rains between Tue and Sat of next week. 00z/28  Ensembles coming into agreement with fairly substantial high amplitude troughing near and west of 80W longitude the middle of next week.    Who gets 2 and who gets relatively meager 1/2" far too early but finally in my viewer assembling, a more widespread event appears on the distant ensemble horizon.  The 2" reference is not necessarily the high end.

High amplitude troughing near and west of 80W.....I'll take it!  Please!  Would be nice to have something in the tropics to take advantage of that position but nothing in the pipeline.

Hoping for something meaningful.  In the meantime August looks to finish with nothing and be a very dry month overall.

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

High amplitude troughing near and west of 80W.....I'll take it!  Please!  Would be nice to have something in the tropics to take advantage of that position but nothing in the pipeline.

Hoping for something meaningful.  In the meantime August looks to finish with nothing and be a very dry month overall.

at least you got your surprise .20 two nights ago... we've traced the past couple of afternoon-evenings.  I didnt check CoCoRaHs and the Mesonet climate sites but am sure there were some meager amounts.  Grandsitting another day or two.

 

 

[RU848789]

On 8/27/2025 at 9:37 AM, wdrag said:

fwiw...5H pattern is looking interesting for me here as of the 06z/27 ensembles. my interest is west of I95 where it's been pretty darn dry since the 22nd.  Am I seeing opportunity for for 1/2-2" of rain in nw NJ next week beginning periodically Monday night Sept 1?  

Walt (or others) - would be interested in your take on 9/6 in the SNJ area adjacent to Philly, as our son is getting married there that day and hoping to do an outdoor ceremony (it's at a working farm) followed by an "upscale barn" reception.  Not too worried about rain, as there is an enclosed space next to the barn if it rains, but would love it to not be hot and humid.  Right now the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC forecasts look like normal to maybe a bit below normal in temps, but normal to above normal in precip.  Obviously, those aren't predictions for a specific day, but I am happy to see no major heatwaves on the horizon and the last few deterministic model runs (GFS/Euor/CMC at least) show some significant rainfall on 9/4-5 clearing out for 9/6 with seasonable or below temps, but 9 days out we all know that that timing can change, but all things being equal, I'll take it for now.  TIA.  

[wdrag]

10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Walt (or others) - would be interested in your take on 9/6 in the SNJ area adjacent to Philly, as our son is getting married there that day and hoping to do an outdoor ceremony (it's at a working farm) followed by an "upscale barn" reception.  Not too worried about rain, as there is an enclosed space next to the barn if it rains, but would love it to not be hot and humid.  Right now the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC forecasts look like normal to maybe a bit below normal in temps, but normal to above normal in precip.  Obviously, those aren't predictions for a specific day, but I am happy to see no major heatwaves on the horizon and the last few deterministic model runs (GFS/Euor/CMC at least) show some significant rainfall on 9/4-5 clearing out for 9/6 with seasonable or below temps, but 9 days out we all know that that timing can change, but all things being equal, I'll take it for now.  TIA.  

Well reviewed. I can’t quibble. Main thing for favorable decent event  is a southern short wave separation from northern Jet, eventually shoving northeast.   That option is still there   

if it’s weak then not so good for rain.  WPC starting to show rainfall D7 and CPC with new 6-10 D outlooks etc around 3-4p