September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[wdrag]

Am not using GEFS predictors etc beyond 2 weeks and messing up the anticipation mid month onward, like the August 2025 post. 

Instead I've added the 6-10 day issued yesterday, as well as the page you can go to look at CPC's daily updates of 6-10, 8-14 day, the weekly Friday updates of the 2-3 week and twice monthly updates of the monthly outlook, as well as other occasionally helpful predictors, based on the still nascent developing long ranging science beyond 2 weeks.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

[wdrag]

fwiw...5H pattern is looking interesting for me here as of the 06z/27 ensembles. my interest is west of I95 where it's been pretty darn dry since the 22nd.  Am I seeing opportunity for for 1/2-2" of rain in nw NJ next week beginning periodically Monday night Sept 1?  

[Stormlover74]

Euro still has a storm next week but not until Wednesday now. Given its track record of late and no other model support I'd say its a long shot

[donsutherland1]

Miscellaneous: New York City's two highest hourly rainfall amounts occurred in September. 3.15" fell from 8 pm-9 pm on September 1, 2021 and 3.05" fell from 11 pm - 12 am on September 4, 1913. Times are standardized (standard time).

Note: The highest average maximum temperature at Newark for a September that is missing no daily records is 83.3°, which was set in 2005. The erroneous 1891 value was left in the table.

[Stormlover74]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro still has a storm next week but not until Wednesday now. Given its track record of late and no other model support I'd say its a long shot

Aaaand its gone.