Tracking the tropics - 2025

[ineedsnow]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

may have to watch this follow up wave (like @WxWatcher007 mentioned). Its a better pattern then what we have now. 

Honestly still watching Erin like @jbenedet mentioned in the tropical thread. That one could pump up the ridge a bit and cause Erin to move around a bit.. If that one can form quick enough . 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

may have to watch this follow up wave (like @WxWatcher007 mentioned). Its a better pattern then what we have now. 

Erin is in the 80th percentile of MH in size and it'll continue to grow the wind field, so I could def see TS force winds on the OBX and maybe in a place like Nantucket. It's indisputable that the track has been too far east/north throughout Erin's lifecycle. 

As for the follow up wave, absolutely worth a watch. Casual for now, but the signal is there for another close approach. I don't think Erin is out in time to build a ridge that forces this into the Gulf...unless this develops further south. It looks like it's going to be near "ideal" for where I'd want to see a TC develop.  

[WxWatcher007]

Now there's a lot more nuance to this obviously as we have to see 1) whether the wave develops, 2) where it develops, 3) when it develops, but unlike Erin, for an ensemble 7 days out and not 10+, this is an "in the ballgame" look. 

EPS is more paltry but that's how the EPS/Euro is--look at the lows buried in the Bahamas. 

GEFS show something similar.

 

Just as important is the 500mb pattern. Storms in the Bahamas don't matter if you don't have an Atlantic ridge to block and trough to our west to pull it north. Again, this is about 7 days out on the ensembles, so this isn't a fantasy steering pattern scenario. 

This is Erin at 72h. Everyone by now should know this is NOT a NE tropical pattern. Not even close with that depiction in Canada. 

 

Now look at the pattern in about a week as this possible wave approaches the Bahamas. Still work to do with the trough, but it's night and day with a ridge building in the maritimes. 

Verbatim that's not a lock for us, but what is at this range. The players on the table however show that this one is worth a closer eye. 

[SouthCoastMA]

On 8/12/2025 at 7:54 AM, SouthCoastMA said:

This is a classic track, splitting the uprights between ACK and Bermuda. Lock it in

Not much variability with this one..well modeled. 

[ROOSTA]

Evacuation Orders on the Outer Banks.
Absolutely fascinating watching the evolution.
Beating a dead horse for one last time.
Yah, Yah, Yah I know...

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I'm squarely at ground zero (only 10D to go) for the next

 

[MJO812]

So many people posting fake videos on Tik Tok about Erin hitting the coast

[Spanks45]

58 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So many people posting fake videos on Tik Tok about Erin hitting the coast

between weather and politics, all social media is a dumpster fire...making it worse, more believe the garbage than not

beautiful day out, 73 with a breeze under full sun...need some rain soon