Tracking the tropics - 2025

[Torch Tiger]

29 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Savannah and Hilton Head rarely get hit by hurricanes.  
David in 1979 but only Cat 1. 

Yeah.  It's interesting how bad the 1880-1900 period was for GA/SC, 1893 and 1898 particularly.  Otherwise very rare 

new gfs rips the potential next system into the gulf, euro recurves similar to Erin.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Insane. Another trend of RI…almost have to expect with with any storm now. 

Most of the Central and W Atlantic are +SST anomalies, it's wild.

Erin looks to follow the gulf stream rather nicely too. plenty of OHC to keep going

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah definitely one to watch. 
 

 

And it's already west of all those and still moving due west maybe a little south of west 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Most of the Central and W Atlantic are +SST anomalies, it's wild.

Erin looks to follow the gulf stream rather nicely too. plenty of OHC to keep going

Yup just get these storms into favorable shear with no dry air around and they just explode. When you have these storms in waters that normally warm into the 80’s and are still above average…a degree or two at this stage equates to a great deal of energy. 

[weatherwiz]

This will likely start re-curving and gaining more latitude probably in the next several hours. These wobbles and what not are more likely attributed to the rapid organization of the storms structure and strength 

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup just get these storms into favorable shear with no dry air around and they just explode. When you have these storms in waters that normally warm into the 80’s and are still above average…a degree or two at this stage equates to a great deal of energy. 

Yeah .5-1.5°C is a nice boost.  

[weatherwiz]

And we have a cat 5 

[Damage In Tolland]

Will it make cat 6 or 7?

[butterfish55]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Will it make cat 6 or 7?

ineedsnow thinks it has a real chance for cat 6 or 7....possibly 8

[ineedsnow]

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This will likely start re-curving and gaining more latitude probably in the next several hours. These wobbles and what not are more likely attributed to the rapid organization of the storms structure and strength 

It's more than a wobble

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

It's more than a wobble

Is it a weenie?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

It's more than a wobble

It will start a more northerly headed very soon, once it starts to do so we’ll see it happen very quickly. 

[Torch Tiger]

close

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Insane. Another trend of RI…almost have to expect with with any storm now. 

SW Atlantic will be the hot spot this season imo.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

SW Atlantic will be the hot spot this season imo.

Agreed 

[WxWatcher007]

Just saw this…might be of interest to some here

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep.

2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20.

3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20.

4. 2020 (180) 8/26

5. 2019 (132) 8/30

6. 2018 (133) 9/10

7. 2017 (225) 8/25

8. 2016 (141) 8/30

———

 2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%).

 

[ROOSTA]

An ever so slight track to the N. 
That Inner Core is going to expand twice, three times its present size. Wondering what the strongest Cane at present location of LAT has ever been (917mb) has to be close? 

WILMA

[Sn0waddict]

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

It's more than a wobble

It doesnt matter. There is no high to block its stage right exit and there is no upper level low sitting over the southeast US to slingshot it towards NE.

[Sn0waddict]

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

It doesnt matter. There is no high to block its stage right exit and there is no upper level low sitting over the southeast US to slingshot it towards NE.

This is what you want for a land falling hurricane in the NE

 

[ROOSTA]

12z GFS Initialization only off by 66mb. ONLY 66!

-----

Location is N and E only off a few (hundred) miles.
Include the darts with the sharpie.
 

[CCHurricane]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

This is what you want for a land falling hurricane in the NE

 

Great visual to demonstrate why Erin has absolutely no chance for the East coast in the current setup. 

[Torch Tiger]

15 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

This is what you want for a land falling hurricane in the NE

 

as others have stated, unfortunately it is literally the opposite setup.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will it make cat 6 or 7?

Lollies to 12? Can always go higher.

[moneypitmike]

22 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

just need to lift that out a bit and move it up the coast before it gets kicked out..  6 days out anything can happen and its close enough where we track

One can't even calculate how many feet of snow we would have received from such speculations.

[ineedsnow]

Euro west of 6z through 72

[Torch Tiger]

keep 'em hooked

[Cyclone-68]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will it make cat 6 or 7?

Cat 7 we all go to heaven 

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

keep 'em hooked

Huge shift west on the Euro NC probably gets in on some fun

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Huge shift west on the Euro NC probably gets in on some fun

Yea pretty large shift with major implications verbatim for SE Bahamas and would get some coastal flooding and sustained Tropical Storm force winds for Hatteras.  

[Cyclone-68]

I imagine for folks who lust after high surf this week is your Christmas