ineedsnow Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Just now, weatherwiz said: may have to watch this follow up wave (like @WxWatcher007 mentioned). Its a better pattern then what we have now. Honestly still watching Erin like @jbenedet mentioned in the tropical thread. That one could pump up the ridge a bit and cause Erin to move around a bit.. If that one can form quick enough . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: may have to watch this follow up wave (like @WxWatcher007 mentioned). Its a better pattern then what we have now. Erin is in the 80th percentile of MH in size and it'll continue to grow the wind field, so I could def see TS force winds on the OBX and maybe in a place like Nantucket. It's indisputable that the track has been too far east/north throughout Erin's lifecycle. As for the follow up wave, absolutely worth a watch. Casual for now, but the signal is there for another close approach. I don't think Erin is out in time to build a ridge that forces this into the Gulf...unless this develops further south. It looks like it's going to be near "ideal" for where I'd want to see a TC develop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Now there's a lot more nuance to this obviously as we have to see 1) whether the wave develops, 2) where it develops, 3) when it develops, but unlike Erin, for an ensemble 7 days out and not 10+, this is an "in the ballgame" look. EPS is more paltry but that's how the EPS/Euro is--look at the lows buried in the Bahamas. GEFS show something similar. Just as important is the 500mb pattern. Storms in the Bahamas don't matter if you don't have an Atlantic ridge to block and trough to our west to pull it north. Again, this is about 7 days out on the ensembles, so this isn't a fantasy steering pattern scenario. This is Erin at 72h. Everyone by now should know this is NOT a NE tropical pattern. Not even close with that depiction in Canada. Now look at the pattern in about a week as this possible wave approaches the Bahamas. Still work to do with the trough, but it's night and day with a ridge building in the maritimes. Verbatim that's not a lock for us, but what is at this range. The players on the table however show that this one is worth a closer eye. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago On 8/12/2025 at 7:54 AM, SouthCoastMA said: This is a classic track, splitting the uprights between ACK and Bermuda. Lock it in Not much variability with this one..well modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Evacuation Orders on the Outer Banks. Absolutely fascinating watching the evolution. Beating a dead horse for one last time. Yah, Yah, Yah I know... -------- I'm squarely at ground zero (only 10D to go) for the next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago So many people posting fake videos on Tik Tok about Erin hitting the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 58 minutes ago, MJO812 said: So many people posting fake videos on Tik Tok about Erin hitting the coast between weather and politics, all social media is a dumpster fire...making it worse, more believe the garbage than not beautiful day out, 73 with a breeze under full sun...need some rain soon 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Watches have been issued for Mainland US as of the 5pm. advisory. WHO CARES! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago GFS with the shift west.. ICON FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 38 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GFS with the shift west.. ICON FTW? Doesn’t mean much of anything for us: meh. But looks like you initialized the next storm lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Doesn’t mean much of anything for us: meh. But looks like you initialized the next storm lol. Ya can we just lock that in now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago That's a monster hit sucks it's 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: That's a monster hit sucks it's 10 days out Will be another fish storm lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Will be another fish storm lol. I’m not so sure the Euro has that right but we’ll see. It’s not the prettiest trough/ridge combo but it’s better than what we have today lol. I can definitely see that wave struggling to consolidate until it gets past 60W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Man what a massive shift west today. Models really blew this one as did NHC . CC to ACK now into TS conditions 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m not so sure the Euro has that right but we’ll see. It’s not the prettiest trough/ridge combo but it’s better than what we have today lol. I can definitely see that wave struggling to consolidate until it gets past 60W. Yeah I Know. That part is better. But risk is trough too far east. Eventually it will work out right? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago what the heck is going on? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m not so sure the Euro has that right but we’ll see. It’s not the prettiest trough/ridge combo but it’s better than what we have today lol. I can definitely see that wave struggling to consolidate until it gets past 60W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: That's a monster hit sucks it's 10 days out wish it ripped into W LI instead of limping, but take! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Somewhere in NYC, a patrol car just drove through a Macy’s and didn’t even notice. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I Know. That part is better. But risk is trough too far east. Eventually it will work out right? lol. Yup…now that would be funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Still south of where the NHC has it.. I still think atleast the cape could get brushed pretty good and the Carolina coast . When the 12z hurricane models come out they will be initialized with the further north position.. guessing track shifts west a bit at 18z or 0z 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man what a massive shift west today. Models really blew this one as did NHC . CC to ACK now into TS conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago NHC is to far north with the 8pm advisory according to recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: wish it ripped into W LI instead of limping, but take! Limping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago "TURN ON ANYTHING YOU'LL GET IT." "THIS PLACE SURE GONE CRAZY." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 23 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Limping? I have limp dick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: "TURN ON ANYTHING YOU'LL GET IT." "THIS PLACE SURE GONE CRAZY." Stooges! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 36 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Limping? Weenie-range so it's pointless That's not even a half-a-cane. lol Looks like a worse Gloria. I was imply that it's moving in more slowly than what one would want for a bonifide hit. It's like 200? 250? miles in 12 hours, that's a slow-mover above 40N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted 45 minutes ago Share Posted 45 minutes ago 58 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Weenie-range so it's pointless That's not even a half-a-cane. lol Looks like a worse Gloria. I was imply that it's moving in more slowly than what one would want for a bonifide hit. It's like 200? 250? miles in 12 hours, that's a slow-mover above 40N Didn’t we just get a lesson in weenie range from Erin. Don’t even look at ops till inside 120 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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