Torch Tiger Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 29 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Savannah and Hilton Head rarely get hit by hurricanes. David in 1979 but only Cat 1. Yeah. It's interesting how bad the 1880-1900 period was for GA/SC, 1893 and 1898 particularly. Otherwise very rare new gfs rips the potential next system into the gulf, euro recurves similar to Erin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Insane. Another trend of RI…almost have to expect with with any storm now. Most of the Central and W Atlantic are +SST anomalies, it's wild. Erin looks to follow the gulf stream rather nicely too. plenty of OHC to keep going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah definitely one to watch. And it's already west of all those and still moving due west maybe a little south of west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Most of the Central and W Atlantic are +SST anomalies, it's wild. Erin looks to follow the gulf stream rather nicely too. plenty of OHC to keep going Yup just get these storms into favorable shear with no dry air around and they just explode. When you have these storms in waters that normally warm into the 80’s and are still above average…a degree or two at this stage equates to a great deal of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago This will likely start re-curving and gaining more latitude probably in the next several hours. These wobbles and what not are more likely attributed to the rapid organization of the storms structure and strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yup just get these storms into favorable shear with no dry air around and they just explode. When you have these storms in waters that normally warm into the 80’s and are still above average…a degree or two at this stage equates to a great deal of energy. Yeah .5-1.5°C is a nice boost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago And we have a cat 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Will it make cat 6 or 7? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Will it make cat 6 or 7? ineedsnow thinks it has a real chance for cat 6 or 7....possibly 8 3 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This will likely start re-curving and gaining more latitude probably in the next several hours. These wobbles and what not are more likely attributed to the rapid organization of the storms structure and strength It's more than a wobble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, ineedsnow said: It's more than a wobble Is it a weenie? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, ineedsnow said: It's more than a wobble It will start a more northerly headed very soon, once it starts to do so we’ll see it happen very quickly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Insane. Another trend of RI…almost have to expect with with any storm now. SW Atlantic will be the hot spot this season imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: SW Atlantic will be the hot spot this season imo. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just saw this…might be of interest to some here 27 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep. 2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20. 3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20. 4. 2020 (180) 8/26 5. 2019 (132) 8/30 6. 2018 (133) 9/10 7. 2017 (225) 8/25 8. 2016 (141) 8/30 ——— 2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago An ever so slight track to the N. That Inner Core is going to expand twice, three times its present size. Wondering what the strongest Cane at present location of LAT has ever been (917mb) has to be close? WILMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: It's more than a wobble It doesnt matter. There is no high to block its stage right exit and there is no upper level low sitting over the southeast US to slingshot it towards NE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: It doesnt matter. There is no high to block its stage right exit and there is no upper level low sitting over the southeast US to slingshot it towards NE. This is what you want for a land falling hurricane in the NE 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12z GFS Initialization only off by 66mb. ONLY 66! ----- Location is N and E only off a few (hundred) miles. Include the darts with the sharpie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: This is what you want for a land falling hurricane in the NE Great visual to demonstrate why Erin has absolutely no chance for the East coast in the current setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 15 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: This is what you want for a land falling hurricane in the NE as others have stated, unfortunately it is literally the opposite setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will it make cat 6 or 7? Lollies to 12? Can always go higher. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 22 hours ago, ineedsnow said: just need to lift that out a bit and move it up the coast before it gets kicked out.. 6 days out anything can happen and its close enough where we track One can't even calculate how many feet of snow we would have received from such speculations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Euro west of 6z through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago keep 'em hooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will it make cat 6 or 7? Cat 7 we all go to heaven 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: keep 'em hooked Huge shift west on the Euro NC probably gets in on some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Huge shift west on the Euro NC probably gets in on some fun Yea pretty large shift with major implications verbatim for SE Bahamas and would get some coastal flooding and sustained Tropical Storm force winds for Hatteras. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I imagine for folks who lust after high surf this week is your Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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