Invest 97L - 50/90

[BarryStantonGBP]

42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You could tell pretty early that the 12z Euro would be OTS. All just noise at this point. No model is going to nail the strength of ridges/troughs and the placement of weaknesses at this range. 

Edouard redux 

[TheDreamTraveler]

Past few runs of the GFS seems hellbent on getting this close to the east coast as a powerful cane. Definitely worth watching but we are still very far out for this to be a legitimate threat yet. What really gets my interest is the fact the GFS keeps showing it in a similar spot at a similar strength the past few runs. If that keeps happening then it's definitely something to keep a close eye on.

[BarryStantonGBP]

15 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Past few runs of the GFS seems hellbent on getting this close to the east coast as a powerful cane. Definitely worth watching but we are still very far out for this to be a legitimate threat yet. What really gets my interest is the fact the GFS keeps showing it in a similar spot at a similar strength the past few runs. If that keeps happening then it's definitely something to keep a close eye on.

Do you think she will score a goal for North Carolina 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Past few runs of the GFS seems hellbent on getting this close to the east coast as a powerful cane. Definitely worth watching but we are still very far out for this to be a legitimate threat yet. What really gets my interest is the fact the GFS keeps showing it in a similar spot at a similar strength the past few runs. If that keeps happening then it's definitely something to keep a close eye on.

18z

[WxFreak11]

.

[tiger_deF]

If this (unlikely) track verified it would be the strongest hurricane for New England since Hurricane Carol in 1954 (71 years ago)

[Yanksfan]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18z

I’m a snowstorm fanatic by nature but if I can’t have one a cat 3 hurricane that threatens us would be a consolation prize. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

ERINNNN, 97L

BAM BAM BAM

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
just off the west coast of Africa.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week 
while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern 
and central tropical Atlantic.  Locally heavy rainfall is possible 
Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[BarryStantonGBP]

6 hours ago, TampaMan said:

NC/SC target wouldn't be good for anyone. Especially after those in Western NC last year around this same time. Hope it just shoots up North. 

 

[WxFreak11]

If this (unlikely) track verified it would be the strongest hurricane for New England since Hurricane Carol in 1954 (71 years ago)

True. Everything has to align perfectly for this to verify. I live in RI and Hurricane Bob was the last storm I remember. During Sandy I was living in SC so missed that. Other than an occasional snow storm weather here is pretty mundane


.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Past few runs of the GFS seems hellbent on getting this close to the east coast as a powerful cane. Definitely worth watching but we are still very far out for this to be a legitimate threat yet. What really gets my interest is the fact the GFS keeps showing it in a similar spot at a similar strength the past few runs. If that keeps happening then it's definitely something to keep a close eye on.

Also, shows a north Atlantic block that is noteworthy.

[TriPol]

https://x.com/lockingitin/status/1954335676637630589?s=61

300 hr GFS wants to destroy New England

[WxWatcher007]

Pay attention to the super ensemble

[Diggiebot]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Pay attention to the super ensemble

According to history this is the sweet spot for a NE hurricane with big blocking. 

 

 

[GaWx]

The 0Z UKMET for some reason doesn’t classify this as a TC. I’d like to see the WxBell or weather.us maps once they’re released to see why. From what I can tell on Pivotal, there still is a sfc low.

 The 0Z Euro goes near Bermuda.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The 0Z UKMET for some reason doesn’t classify this as a TC. I’d like to see the WxBell or weather.us maps once they’re released to see why. From what I can tell on Pivotal, there still is a sfc low.

 The 0Z Euro goes near Bermuda.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
just to the east and southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the 
middle to latter portion of this week while moving 
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.  Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are 
possible today and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[tiger_deF]

I can’t even remember the last time a tropical wave looked this good so close to Africa

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a 
tropical wave located just to the southeast of the Cabo Verde 
Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for further 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving 
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.  Regardless of development, locally heavy 
rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday across the 
Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[BarryStantonGBP]

COME ON ERIN

*BANG BANG BANG*
 

[BarryStantonGBP]

CAM ON ERIN

Special outlook lads!!!

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance 
located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands (AL97).

BAM BAM BAM

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Updated:  Recently received satellite-derived wind data indicate 
that a well-defined low pressure system has formed about midway 
between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands with 
maximum winds of about 35 mph.  Although the associated shower and 
thunderstorm activity still lacks some organization, only a small 
increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a 
tropical depression before the low moves near or across the Cabo 
Verde Islands tonight and on Monday.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday 
across the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor 
the progress of this system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so, 
environmental conditions appear conducive for later development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter 
portion of this week while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph 
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Boston Bulldog]

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

COME ON ERIN

*BANG BANG BANG*
 

I would strongly advise against using telescoping hurricane models, such as HAFS, or the now depreciated HWRF model, until an actual system has formed.

These models will key in on spurious or hallucinated rotation to “justify” kicking off the telescoped run, thus will almost always be extremely overdeveloped for nascent systems. Not saying it’s not right, but the odds are stacked against that run, especially for a depreciated model like HWRF

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

I would strongly advise against using telescoping hurricane models, such as HAFS, or the now depreciated HWRF model, until an actual system has formed.

These models will key in on spurious or hallucinated rotation to “justify” kicking off the telescoped run, thus will almost always be extremely overdeveloped for nascent systems. Not saying it’s not right, but the odds are stacked against that run, especially for a depreciated model like HWRF

Beat me to it  

[eyewall]

12z GFS re-curves east of Bermuda. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

one model has Erin scoring a category 5 goal

cam on erin 

[BarryStantonGBP]

[dbullsfan]

I’m sure a lot of us quietly would love a storm to track and love the natural beauty of big storms, but maybe don’t openly act so excited and seemingly be rooting for a devastating storm. Real lives are affected and it isn’t just a video game. I can only hope as this or any storm gets closer to land these kinds of post get cleaned up. You can start your own wish casting thread if you want but don’t bring it in here.


.

[TriPol]

16 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

I’m sure a lot of us quietly would love a storm to track and love the natural beauty of big storms, but maybe don’t openly act so excited and seemingly be rooting for a devastating storm. Real lives are affected and it isn’t just a video game. I can only hope as this or any storm gets closer to land these kinds of post get cleaned up. You can start your own wish casting thread if you want but don’t bring it in here.


.

Sorry, sir. This is a Wendy’s. We root for storms around here like college football teams.