Hurricane Erin: 110 MPH - 943 mb - N @ 13

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

Is that an outer eye wall forming? New ERC ongoing?

I believe it is what is known as a long lived concentric eyewall. I would not expect a traditional ERC to occur as the outer eyewall is so large.

 

[Wannabehippie]

You can see how large Erin has gotten

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/7a96c6d7-c750-4edf-a392-f54ab95c2ee5

 

 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Erin is sending us her first feeder band in to our area,that's how big she is. 

[wthrmn654]

I'm now under coastal flood warning. 

Well this storm has escalated lol

[NC US Geological Survice]

What model do we think Surfline uses for its wave height forecasts? It has maintained a peak of 30-35 ft waves at the beach---starting 3am tomorrow---in Frisco, NC, between Hatteras Village and Buxton. 

[jm1220]

38 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Erin is sending us her first feeder band in to our area,that's how big she is. 

This isn't any kind of band from Erin. It's actually the system that's booting it out. 

[Wannabehippie]

Erin moving due north now.

5:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 20
Location: 31.2°N 73.6°W
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

16 minutes ago, NC US Geological Survice said:

What model do we think Surfline uses for its wave height forecasts? It has maintained a peak of 30-35 ft waves at the beach---starting 3am tomorrow---in Frisco, NC, between Hatteras Village and Buxton. 

They have their own proprietary model called Lotus. 30-35’ is impossible on the east coast anywhere less then a mile offshore. The bottom is just too gradual and shallow. Basically anything bigger then 15’ just breaks further and further out. 

[WEATHER53]

33 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

They have their own proprietary model called Lotus. 30-35’ is impossible on the east coast anywhere less then a mile offshore. The bottom is just too gradual and shallow. Basically anything bigger then 15’ just breaks further and further out. 

Correct

no 30 foot onshore breaking but I do think 6’ in general and possibly up to 8 

[Coach McGuirk]

Erin reminds me of hurricane Floyd in 1999 but out to sea. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Erin reminds me of hurricane Floyd in 1999 but out to sea. 

Were you in hurricane Georges in 1998

[Coach McGuirk]

3 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Were you in hurricane Georges in 1998

I don't recall it but just looked it up. I live in SEVA. 
Georges 1998 track - Hurricane Georges - Wikipedia

[Coach McGuirk]

As a kid, I remember traveling to Florida from Virginia after hurricane Hugo.  The place was devastated. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

Reminds me of:

[Wannabehippie]

8:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 20
Location: 32.2°N 73.2°W
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

 

[Interstate]

It is definitely moving north east now. Look at KMHX radar. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Outer Banks didn’t see any rain at all. 

[Coach McGuirk]

Erin is kind of boring now.  Hurricane Andrew landfall radar: https://imgur.com/G5IB3vI

[NorthHillsWx]

It hasn’t strengthened at all based on that first pass. Winds probably still a bit generous. Think the opportunity to regain 3 intensity is rapidly fading.

It does appear to be kicking east some. Based on buoy reports between the storm and hatteras I’m not certain tropical storm force wind will make it to land. I think the models may have overdone the western extent of TS force winds somewhat really unimpressive buoy reports anywhere near the coast

[Coach McGuirk]

Erin might be the most overrated hurricane ever.  

[wthrmn654]

2 hours ago: 

Unfortunately, Hurricane Erin's storm surge was too much for NC12 tonight. We will be CLOSING NC12 from Oregon Inlet to Hatteras Village at 6:30 p.m. Conditions are too unsafe for people to be driving in. If you come across any flood waters, turn around, don't drown. #ncwx

[wthrmn654]

The waters are freaking high everywhere 

[Coach McGuirk]

I guess we're all bored with Erin.  Hurricane Isabel 165 MPH winds with a bizarre rotating eye in the eye.  Never before, never again. 

[wthrmn654]

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next 
day or so, and Erin could become a major hurricane again tonight. 
Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to 
remain a hurricane into the weekend.
 
Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up 
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force 
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). During the past few 
hours, NOAA buoy 41002, located west of the center, has reported 
sustained winds of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph   
(115 km/h).
 
The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).

[NorthHillsWx]

Waves look pretty damn huge in Atlantic beach right now 

https://www.oceananapier.com/fishing-pier

[wthrmn654]

Erin is about the water not so much the wind. 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Erin is about the water not so much the wind. 

Folks focus on wind way too often. 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

It is definitely moving north east now. Look at KMHX radar. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Outer Banks didn’t see any rain at all. 

They already have gotten some rain, just going by satellite photos.

[Maxwell03]

Water energy from afar was always the focus with this storm. As long as wave heights and storm tide forecasts broadly verify I don't think we could call this a bust. But it does feel underwhelming thus far lol. 

[dseagull]

6 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

Water energy from afar was always the focus with this storm. As long as wave heights and storm tide forecasts broadly verify I don't think we could call this a bust. But it does feel underwhelming thus far lol. 

Not so underwhelming here on ocracoke

[Coach McGuirk]

17 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

Water energy from afar was always the focus with this storm. As long as wave heights and storm tide forecasts broadly verify I don't think we could call this a bust. But it does feel underwhelming thus far lol. 

People were saying this might hit as a major hurricane, the models were saying otherwise and the models won.  Now we're talking about wave heights.