August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

67 here.  Making beef jerky on the smoker.  Picked a good day for it.  

hurray my allergies are finally GONE-- I think it's drying out and I even saw a peek of sunshine!

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Supposed to hit 74 later but still sitting at 65

the sun is coming out and my allergies are GONE!

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

I disagree, we had some of the best color and lasting color too in the fall.  One of the better ones in years.  

Some people said that for some places but other locations were abysmal. I know because I saw the garbage color myself. 

[FPizz]

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Some people said that for some places but other locations were abysmal. I know because I saw the garbage color myself. 

It was actually good here, but driving north up 287 for work into NY, the color north of route 80 was amazing.  I tried to take pics while driving, this was the best I could get. Going 80 and taking pics not recommended, but lots of yellow, orange and red.

[SACRUS]

 

I think the cool departures will be greater this week vs next with a few >-10 this week yesterday.today.

[Roger Smith]

If we eliminate any correction for urban heat island, the top ten summer averages run closer to Don's top ten. The top contenders would be 

01_ 2010 _ 25.44 C __ 01 Don's list

02_ 1966 _ 25.18 C __ 02 Don

03_ 2005 _ 25.04 C __ 

04_ 1993 _ 24.94 C __ 03 Don

05t_ 1983 _ 24.93 C __ 

05t_ 2020 _ 24.93 C __

07_ 1949 _ 24.92 C __ 08 Don

08t_ 2016 _ 24.85 C __

08t_ 2022 _ 24.85 C __

10t_ 1999 _ 24.83 C __ 05 Don

10t_ 1980 _ 24.80 C __ 06 Don

10t_ 1988 _ 24.80 C __ 07 Don

13_ 2024 _ 24.78 C __

14_ 1995 _ 24.74 C __ 04 Don

15_ 1944 _ 24.72 C __

16t_1943 _ 24.63 C __

16t_2015 _ 24.63 C __

18_ 1991 _ 24.61 C __

19_ 1952 _ 24.59 C __

20_ 1908 _ 24.56 C __

21_ 1994 _ 24.55 C __ 10 Don

22_ 1973 _ 24.52 C __

23_ 1876 _ 24.46 C __

24t_1955 _ 24.43 C __

24t_2002 _ 24.43 C __

26_ 1971 _ 24.42 C __

27t_1906 _ 24.41 C __

27t_2011 _ 24.41 C __ 09 Don

27t_ 2021 _ 24.41 C __

30_ 1939 _ 24.39 C __

31_ 1981 _ 24.35 C __

32_ 2018 _ 24.33 C __

33_ 1953 _ 24.29 C __ 

34_ 2013 _ 24.28 C __

35t_1961 _ 24.22 C __

35t_2019 _ 24.22 C __

37_ 2012 _ 24.17 C __

38_ 2008 _ 24.11 C __

This summer will finish somewhere near 30th. 1953 would move up several spots if we took June 4 to Sep 3. 

As I understand how Don constructed his index, this list basically tells you how well various summers converted their temperature regime to noteworthy hot days. More recent years all fail because their average warmth is based largely on overnight low performance combined with a steady unspectacular heat. 

If Don has a few minutes to spare, perhaps he could fill in the ranks of the other years above in his index. 

 

[TriPol]

Had to look at the calendar today. Is it August or October? Odd

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Supposed to hit 74 later but still sitting at 65

Skies getting brighter here and up to 72.  

[gravitylover]

It's 82° with crystally clear skies up here in Glens Falls right now.

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

It was actually good here, but driving north up 287 for work into NY, the color north of route 80 was amazing.  I tried to take pics while driving, this was the best I could get. Going 80 and taking pics not recommended, but lots of yellow, orange and red.

You and I have had this conversation before I remember this pic haha

I think we concluded it was hit and miss depending on the area. 

[Sundog]

26 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Had to look at the calendar today. Is it August or October? Odd

Sun is out, temps low 70s. 

I was hoping it would stay cloudy, oh well. 

[FPizz]

20 minutes ago, Sundog said:

You and I have had this conversation before I remember this pic haha

I think we concluded it was hit and miss depending on the area. 

Yeah.  I wish 287 had a scenic overlook to actually park my car and take a few pics.  I guess in two months I'll see how this year compares to last. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

If we eliminate any correction for urban heat island, the top ten summer averages run closer to Don's top ten. The top contenders would be 

01_ 2010 _ 25.44 C __ 01 Don's list

02_ 1966 _ 25.18 C __ 02 Don

03_ 2005 _ 25.04 C __ 

04_ 1993 _ 24.94 C __ 03 Don

05t_ 1983 _ 24.93 C __ 

05t_ 2020 _ 24.93 C __

07_ 1949 _ 24.92 C __ 08 Don

08t_ 2016 _ 24.85 C __

08t_ 2022 _ 24.85 C __

10t_ 1999 _ 24.83 C __ 05 Don

10t_ 1980 _ 24.80 C __ 06 Don

10t_ 1988 _ 24.80 C __ 07 Don

13_ 2024 _ 24.78 C __

14_ 1995 _ 24.74 C __ 04 Don

15_ 1944 _ 24.72 C __

16t_1943 _ 24.63 C __

16t_2015 _ 24.63 C __

18_ 1991 _ 24.61 C __

19_ 1952 _ 24.59 C __

20_ 1908 _ 24.56 C __

21_ 1994 _ 24.55 C __ 10 Don

22_ 1973 _ 24.52 C __

23_ 1876 _ 24.46 C __

24t_1955 _ 24.43 C __

24t_2002 _ 24.43 C __

26_ 1971 _ 24.42 C __

27t_1906 _ 24.41 C __

27t_2011 _ 24.41 C __ 09 Don

27t_ 2021 _ 24.41 C __

30_ 1939 _ 24.39 C __

31_ 1981 _ 24.35 C __

32_ 2018 _ 24.33 C __

33_ 1953 _ 24.29 C __ 

34_ 2013 _ 24.28 C __

35t_1961 _ 24.22 C __

35t_2019 _ 24.22 C __

37_ 2012 _ 24.17 C __

38_ 2008 _ 24.11 C __

This summer will finish somewhere near 30th. 1953 would move up several spots if we took June 4 to Sep 3. 

As I understand how Don constructed his index, this list basically tells you how well various summers converted their temperature regime to noteworthy hot days. More recent years all fail because their average warmth is based largely on overnight low performance combined with a steady unspectacular heat. 

If Don has a few minutes to spare, perhaps he could fill in the ranks of the other years above in his index. 

 

My list was developed based on four criteria for which data is widely available:

1. Mean temperature
2. Highest maximum temperature
3. Highest minimum temperature
4. Number of 90F/32.2C or above high temperatures

These values were standardized (standard deviations from the historic mean values for the period of record)

I ran the numbers weighting each of the four criteria equally (initial approach) and also placing 50% weight on the mean temperature and then allocating the remaining 50% weight equally among the remaining three criteria.

Further, I ran these numbers for a true summer (June-August) and extended summer (June-September) scenario.

The different approaches were utilized based on various comments and "what if" questions made in the thread.

If asked, I lean toward the second approach to weights (50% weight for the mean temperature as opposed to equal weights for all criteria) for the June-September period, as even relatively cool summers can have a short bout of extreme heat. Weighting everything equally skews the values.

Separately, but not posted, I also looked at how much warming over the historic period has influenced summer mean temperatures. The coefficient of determination was 0.25, meaning that 25% of the variation in mean summer temperatures is explained by the ongoing warming and 75% is explained by internal variability. That's actually a quite high figure explained by warming, alone.

Here's what summers look like at Central Park (1869-2024):

Here's what they look like when the warming component is removed (as expected, the trend would be 0, but I included the trend line to illustrate that the warming was fully removed):

In other words, here's what they would look like were internal variability, alone, responsible. Based on the data, Summer 2010 was just over 1.1F warmer than it would have been without the warming. Based on the internal variability, if a summer similar to 1876 occurs, the mean would be around 78.5F for the summer given the warming. It's probably a matter of time before the Summer 2010 figure is eclipsed (probably no later than the 2030s). Moreover, when it happens, the margin by which the record is broken could be fairly large, as one has seen elsewhere  in recent years where summer records were broken.