August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

67 here.  Making beef jerky on the smoker.  Picked a good day for it.  

hurray my allergies are finally GONE-- I think it's drying out and I even saw a peek of sunshine!

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Supposed to hit 74 later but still sitting at 65

the sun is coming out and my allergies are GONE!

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

I disagree, we had some of the best color and lasting color too in the fall.  One of the better ones in years.  

Some people said that for some places but other locations were abysmal. I know because I saw the garbage color myself. 

[FPizz]

7 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Some people said that for some places but other locations were abysmal. I know because I saw the garbage color myself. 

It was actually good here, but driving north up 287 for work into NY, the color north of route 80 was amazing.  I tried to take pics while driving, this was the best I could get. Going 80 and taking pics not recommended, but lots of yellow, orange and red.

[SACRUS]

 

I think the cool departures will be greater this week vs next with a few >-10 this week yesterday.today.

[Roger Smith]

If we eliminate any correction for urban heat island, the top ten summer averages run closer to Don's top ten. The top contenders would be 

01_ 2010 _ 25.44 C __ 01 Don's list

02_ 1966 _ 25.18 C __ 02 Don

03_ 2005 _ 25.04 C __ 

04_ 1993 _ 24.94 C __ 03 Don

05t_ 1983 _ 24.93 C __ 

05t_ 2020 _ 24.93 C __

07_ 1949 _ 24.92 C __ 08 Don

08t_ 2016 _ 24.85 C __

08t_ 2022 _ 24.85 C __

10t_ 1999 _ 24.83 C __ 05 Don

10t_ 1980 _ 24.80 C __ 06 Don

10t_ 1988 _ 24.80 C __ 07 Don

13_ 2024 _ 24.78 C __

14_ 1995 _ 24.74 C __ 04 Don

15_ 1944 _ 24.72 C __

16t_1943 _ 24.63 C __

16t_2015 _ 24.63 C __

18_ 1991 _ 24.61 C __

19_ 1952 _ 24.59 C __

20_ 1908 _ 24.56 C __

21_ 1994 _ 24.55 C __ 10 Don

22_ 1973 _ 24.52 C __

23_ 1876 _ 24.46 C __

24t_1955 _ 24.43 C __

24t_2002 _ 24.43 C __

26_ 1971 _ 24.42 C __

27t_1906 _ 24.41 C __

27t_2011 _ 24.41 C __ 09 Don

27t_ 2021 _ 24.41 C __

30_ 1939 _ 24.39 C __

31_ 1981 _ 24.35 C __

32_ 2018 _ 24.33 C __

33_ 1953 _ 24.29 C __ 

34_ 2013 _ 24.28 C __

35t_1961 _ 24.22 C __

35t_2019 _ 24.22 C __

37_ 2012 _ 24.17 C __

38_ 2008 _ 24.11 C __

This summer will finish somewhere near 30th. 1953 would move up several spots if we took June 4 to Sep 3. 

As I understand how Don constructed his index, this list basically tells you how well various summers converted their temperature regime to noteworthy hot days. More recent years all fail because their average warmth is based largely on overnight low performance combined with a steady unspectacular heat. 

If Don has a few minutes to spare, perhaps he could fill in the ranks of the other years above in his index. 

 

[TriPol]

Had to look at the calendar today. Is it August or October? Odd

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Supposed to hit 74 later but still sitting at 65

Skies getting brighter here and up to 72.  

[gravitylover]

It's 82° with crystally clear skies up here in Glens Falls right now.

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

It was actually good here, but driving north up 287 for work into NY, the color north of route 80 was amazing.  I tried to take pics while driving, this was the best I could get. Going 80 and taking pics not recommended, but lots of yellow, orange and red.

You and I have had this conversation before I remember this pic haha

I think we concluded it was hit and miss depending on the area. 

[Sundog]

26 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Had to look at the calendar today. Is it August or October? Odd

Sun is out, temps low 70s. 

I was hoping it would stay cloudy, oh well. 

[FPizz]

20 minutes ago, Sundog said:

You and I have had this conversation before I remember this pic haha

I think we concluded it was hit and miss depending on the area. 

Yeah.  I wish 287 had a scenic overlook to actually park my car and take a few pics.  I guess in two months I'll see how this year compares to last. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

If we eliminate any correction for urban heat island, the top ten summer averages run closer to Don's top ten. The top contenders would be 

01_ 2010 _ 25.44 C __ 01 Don's list

02_ 1966 _ 25.18 C __ 02 Don

03_ 2005 _ 25.04 C __ 

04_ 1993 _ 24.94 C __ 03 Don

05t_ 1983 _ 24.93 C __ 

05t_ 2020 _ 24.93 C __

07_ 1949 _ 24.92 C __ 08 Don

08t_ 2016 _ 24.85 C __

08t_ 2022 _ 24.85 C __

10t_ 1999 _ 24.83 C __ 05 Don

10t_ 1980 _ 24.80 C __ 06 Don

10t_ 1988 _ 24.80 C __ 07 Don

13_ 2024 _ 24.78 C __

14_ 1995 _ 24.74 C __ 04 Don

15_ 1944 _ 24.72 C __

16t_1943 _ 24.63 C __

16t_2015 _ 24.63 C __

18_ 1991 _ 24.61 C __

19_ 1952 _ 24.59 C __

20_ 1908 _ 24.56 C __

21_ 1994 _ 24.55 C __ 10 Don

22_ 1973 _ 24.52 C __

23_ 1876 _ 24.46 C __

24t_1955 _ 24.43 C __

24t_2002 _ 24.43 C __

26_ 1971 _ 24.42 C __

27t_1906 _ 24.41 C __

27t_2011 _ 24.41 C __ 09 Don

27t_ 2021 _ 24.41 C __

30_ 1939 _ 24.39 C __

31_ 1981 _ 24.35 C __

32_ 2018 _ 24.33 C __

33_ 1953 _ 24.29 C __ 

34_ 2013 _ 24.28 C __

35t_1961 _ 24.22 C __

35t_2019 _ 24.22 C __

37_ 2012 _ 24.17 C __

38_ 2008 _ 24.11 C __

This summer will finish somewhere near 30th. 1953 would move up several spots if we took June 4 to Sep 3. 

As I understand how Don constructed his index, this list basically tells you how well various summers converted their temperature regime to noteworthy hot days. More recent years all fail because their average warmth is based largely on overnight low performance combined with a steady unspectacular heat. 

If Don has a few minutes to spare, perhaps he could fill in the ranks of the other years above in his index. 

 

My list was developed based on four criteria for which data is widely available:

1. Mean temperature
2. Highest maximum temperature
3. Highest minimum temperature
4. Number of 90F/32.2C or above high temperatures

These values were standardized (standard deviations from the historic mean values for the period of record)

I ran the numbers weighting each of the four criteria equally (initial approach) and also placing 50% weight on the mean temperature and then allocating the remaining 50% weight equally among the remaining three criteria.

Further, I ran these numbers for a true summer (June-August) and extended summer (June-September) scenario.

The different approaches were utilized based on various comments and "what if" questions made in the thread.

If asked, I lean toward the second approach to weights (50% weight for the mean temperature as opposed to equal weights for all criteria) for the June-September period, as even relatively cool summers can have a short bout of extreme heat. Weighting everything equally skews the values.

Separately, but not posted, I also looked at how much warming over the historic period has influenced summer mean temperatures. The coefficient of determination was 0.25, meaning that 25% of the variation in mean summer temperatures is explained by the ongoing warming and 75% is explained by internal variability. That's actually a quite high figure explained by warming, alone.

Here's what summers look like at Central Park (1869-2024):

Here's what they look like when the warming component is removed (as expected, the trend would be 0, but I included the trend line to illustrate that the warming was fully removed):

In other words, here's what they would look like were internal variability, alone, responsible. Based on the data, Summer 2010 was just over 1.1F warmer than it would have been without the warming. Based on the internal variability, if a summer similar to 1876 occurs, the mean would be around 78.5F for the summer given the warming. It's probably a matter of time before the Summer 2010 figure is eclipsed (probably no later than the 2030s). Moreover, when it happens, the margin by which the record is broken could be fairly large, as one has seen elsewhere  in recent years where summer records were broken.

[SACRUS]

 

Clearing more

 

75 / 59

[donsutherland1]

Clouds were breaking across the region this afternoon as the rain of yesterday into this morning had departed. Rainfall amounts included:

Bridgeport: None
Hartford: 1.52"
Islip: 0.38"
New Haven: 0.81"
New York City-Central Park: 0.78"
New York City-JFK Airport: 1.03"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.53"
Newark: 0.68"
Philadelphia: 0.14"
Poughkeepsie: 1.23"
White Plains: 1.21"

It will turn warmer tomorrow. High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow through the weekend. 

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +1.33 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.858 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[Brian5671]

BDR rain gauge must be broken-we had about 1.50 inches here 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

BDR rain gauge must be broken-we had about 1.50 inches here 

Hopefully, a corrected figure will be provided.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

so wild, I think some places reached 100 degrees in 1983 in July, August AND September??? Can you check to see which ones did that-- I'm sure some place in Queens did as JFK hit 100 in both July and August in 1983 and 98 in September (NYC hit 99).

 

The only stations I could find that made it to 100° from July to September in 1983 were in an around Philly.

Monthly Data for July 1983 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

DE	NEWARK AG FARM	COOP	105
NJ	MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	102
PA	NORRISTOWN	COOP	101
MD	DENTON 2 E	COOP	100
PA	MARCUS HOOK	COOP	100
DE	WILMINGTON AIRPORT	WBAN	100
PA	PHILADELPHIA	WBAN	100
PA	DREXEL UNIV	COOP	100
NJ	ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	100
NJ	INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	100

 

Monthly Data for August 1983 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

MD	CHESTERTOWN	COOP	101
MD	MILLINGTON 1 SE	COOP	101
PA	PHOENIXVILLE 1 E	COOP	101
PA	PHILADELPHIA	WBAN	101
PA	DREXEL UNIV	COOP	101
MD	CENTREVILLE	COOP	100
DE	BRIDGEVILLE 1 NW	COOP	100
MD	DENTON 2 E	COOP	100
DE	NEWARK AG FARM	COOP	100
PA	MARCUS HOOK	COOP	100
DE	WILMINGTON AIRPORT	WBAN	100
PA	DEVAULT 1 W	COOP	100
PA	NORRISTOWN	COOP	100
NJ	HAMMONTON 1 NE	COOP	100
NJ	INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	100

 

Monthly Data for September 1983 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

PA	PHILADELPHIA	WBAN	102
NJ	HAMMONTON 1 NE	COOP	102
NJ	EWING 3 WNW	COOP	101
MD	CENTREVILLE	COOP	100
MD	CHESTERTOWN	COOP	100
DE	BRIDGEVILLE 1 NW	COOP	100
DE	NEWARK AG FARM	COOP	100
DE	MIDDLETOWN 3 E	COOP	100
PA	MARCUS HOOK	COOP	100
NJ	SHILOH	COOP	100
DE	WILMINGTON AIRPORT	WBAN	100
PA	DEVAULT 1 W	COOP	100
PA	NORRISTOWN	COOP	100
PA	READING 4 NNW	COOP	100
NJ	AUDUBON	COOP	100
NJ	LAMBERTVILLE	COOP	100

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Clouds were breaking across the region this afternoon as the rain of yesterday into this morning had departed. Rainfall amounts included:

Bridgeport: None
Hartford: 1.52"
Islip: 0.38"
New Haven: 0.81"
New York City-Central Park: 0.78"
New York City-JFK Airport: 1.03"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.53"
Newark: 0.68"
Philadelphia: 0.14"
Poughkeepsie: 1.23"
White Plains: 1.21"

It will turn warmer tomorrow. High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow through the weekend. 

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +1.33 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.858 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

around 1 inch of rain looks about right for here

winds gusted to 40 mph

there probably should have been a wind advisory and a gale warning here

I noticed there was a tropical storm warning up to central NJ-- why not here Don?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

My list was developed based on four criteria for which data is widely available:

1. Mean temperature
2. Highest maximum temperature
3. Highest minimum temperature
4. Number of 90F/32.2C or above high temperatures

These values were standardized (standard deviations from the historic mean values for the period of record)

I ran the numbers weighting each of the four criteria equally (initial approach) and also placing 50% weight on the mean temperature and then allocating the remaining 50% weight equally among the remaining three criteria.

Further, I ran these numbers for a true summer (June-August) and extended summer (June-September) scenario.

The different approaches were utilized based on various comments and "what if" questions made in the thread.

If asked, I lean toward the second approach to weights (50% weight for the mean temperature as opposed to equal weights for all criteria) for the June-September period, as even relatively cool summers can have a short bout of extreme heat. Weighting everything equally skews the values.

Separately, but not posted, I also looked at how much warming over the historic period has influenced summer mean temperatures. The coefficient of determination was 0.25, meaning that 25% of the variation in mean summer temperatures is explained by the ongoing warming and 75% is explained by internal variability. That's actually a quite high figure explained by warming, alone.

Here's what summers look like at Central Park (1869-2024):

Here's what they look like when the warming component is removed (as expected, the trend would be 0, but I included the trend line to illustrate that the warming was fully removed):

In other words, here's what they would look like were internal variability, alone, responsible. Based on the data, Summer 2010 was just over 1.1F warmer than it would have been without the warming. Based on the internal variability, if a summer similar to 1876 occurs, the mean would be around 78.5F for the summer given the warming. It's probably a matter of time before the Summer 2010 figure is eclipsed (probably no later than the 2030s). Moreover, when it happens, the margin by which the record is broken could be fairly large, as one has seen elsewhere  in recent years where summer records were broken.

Do you think Summer 2010 will even be eclipsed by the 2030s at JFK for number of 90, number of 95, and number of 100 degree days Don?

My target year is 2032 because it follows the 11 year cycle of super hot summers.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Sun is out, temps low 70s. 

I was hoping it would stay cloudy, oh well. 

why lol, clouds suck!

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

If we eliminate any correction for urban heat island, the top ten summer averages run closer to Don's top ten. The top contenders would be 

01_ 2010 _ 25.44 C __ 01 Don's list

02_ 1966 _ 25.18 C __ 02 Don

03_ 2005 _ 25.04 C __ 

04_ 1993 _ 24.94 C __ 03 Don

05t_ 1983 _ 24.93 C __ 

05t_ 2020 _ 24.93 C __

07_ 1949 _ 24.92 C __ 08 Don

08t_ 2016 _ 24.85 C __

08t_ 2022 _ 24.85 C __

10t_ 1999 _ 24.83 C __ 05 Don

10t_ 1980 _ 24.80 C __ 06 Don

10t_ 1988 _ 24.80 C __ 07 Don

13_ 2024 _ 24.78 C __

14_ 1995 _ 24.74 C __ 04 Don

15_ 1944 _ 24.72 C __

16t_1943 _ 24.63 C __

16t_2015 _ 24.63 C __

18_ 1991 _ 24.61 C __

19_ 1952 _ 24.59 C __

20_ 1908 _ 24.56 C __

21_ 1994 _ 24.55 C __ 10 Don

22_ 1973 _ 24.52 C __

23_ 1876 _ 24.46 C __

24t_1955 _ 24.43 C __

24t_2002 _ 24.43 C __

26_ 1971 _ 24.42 C __

27t_1906 _ 24.41 C __

27t_2011 _ 24.41 C __ 09 Don

27t_ 2021 _ 24.41 C __

30_ 1939 _ 24.39 C __

31_ 1981 _ 24.35 C __

32_ 2018 _ 24.33 C __

33_ 1953 _ 24.29 C __ 

34_ 2013 _ 24.28 C __

35t_1961 _ 24.22 C __

35t_2019 _ 24.22 C __

37_ 2012 _ 24.17 C __

38_ 2008 _ 24.11 C __

This summer will finish somewhere near 30th. 1953 would move up several spots if we took June 4 to Sep 3. 

As I understand how Don constructed his index, this list basically tells you how well various summers converted their temperature regime to noteworthy hot days. More recent years all fail because their average warmth is based largely on overnight low performance combined with a steady unspectacular heat. 

If Don has a few minutes to spare, perhaps he could fill in the ranks of the other years above in his index. 

 

September is mostly within the borders of summer so I think it should be considered, our seasons mostly follow the astronomical calendar, so it's approximately June 20 - September 20

1953 and 1983 should both be several spots higher.

I generally agree with 2010 and 1966 being at the top though.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

It was actually good here, but driving north up 287 for work into NY, the color north of route 80 was amazing.  I tried to take pics while driving, this was the best I could get. Going 80 and taking pics not recommended, but lots of yellow, orange and red.

wow, now THIS really looks like October!

 

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you think Summer 2010 will even be eclipsed by the 2030s at JFK for number of 90, number of 95, and number of 100 degree days Don?

My target year is 2032 because it follows the 11 year cycle of super hot summers.

 

I suspect that it will. 

[LoboLeader1]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

around 1 inch of rain looks about right for here

winds gusted to 40 mph

there probably should have been a wind advisory and a gale warning here

I noticed there was a tropical storm warning up to central NJ-- why not here Don?

 

 

 

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Clouds were breaking across the region this afternoon as the rain of yesterday into this morning had departed. Rainfall amounts included:

Bridgeport: None
Hartford: 1.52"
Islip: 0.38"
New Haven: 0.81"
New York City-Central Park: 0.78"
New York City-JFK Airport: 1.03"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.53"
Newark: 0.68"
Philadelphia: 0.14"
Poughkeepsie: 1.23"
White Plains: 1.21"

It will turn warmer tomorrow. High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow through the weekend. 

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +1.33 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.858 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

1.25"of H2O here last night. It gave the sprinkler system a much needed break.

[anthonymm]

Are we taking the over or under for 90 degrees at central park at some point in September. Climo says its roughly 50/50 but I'd think it'd be harder to achieve outside the first week of the month. That's usually when temps really start dropping.

[Wannabehippie]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

It was actually good here, but driving north up 287 for work into NY, the color north of route 80 was amazing.  I tried to take pics while driving, this was the best I could get. Going 80 and taking pics not recommended, but lots of yellow, orange and red.

Seems early to see such vibrant colors.

 

[donsutherland1]

The ECMWF weekly guidance shows almost coast-to-coast cool anomalies in the U.S. The Pacific Northwest and northwestern Canada would be much warmer than normal.

[Sundog]

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why lol, clouds suck!

Today I managed to make it all the way through the day without turning on the AC with the good breeze helping. 

Clouds came back like an hour after I wrote that which helped keep the house from getting too warm on the 2nd floor. 

I just wanted to avoid the AC for one day and the clouds were the only way I was going to pull it off. 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Today I managed to make it all the way through the day without turning on the AC with the good breeze helping. 

Clouds came back like an hour after I wrote that which helped keep the house from getting too warm on the 2nd floor. 

I just wanted to avoid the AC for one day and the clouds were the only way I was going to pull it off. 

the AC is good to filter out bad air, I sometimes even turn it on during the winter as it helps keep my air clean.

I haven't turned it on in the past 2 days but did turn on my space heater for a few hours each day.  I have my fan on right now.

If it's not hot (85 degrees or hotter), just turning on a fan will cool you down.