LibertyBell Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 6 minutes ago, FPizz said: 67 here. Making beef jerky on the smoker. Picked a good day for it. hurray my allergies are finally GONE-- I think it's drying out and I even saw a peek of sunshine! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Supposed to hit 74 later but still sitting at 65 the sun is coming out and my allergies are GONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, steve392 said: I disagree, we had some of the best color and lasting color too in the fall. One of the better ones in years. Some people said that for some places but other locations were abysmal. I know because I saw the garbage color myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Sundog said: Some people said that for some places but other locations were abysmal. I know because I saw the garbage color myself. It was actually good here, but driving north up 287 for work into NY, the color north of route 80 was amazing. I tried to take pics while driving, this was the best I could get. Going 80 and taking pics not recommended, but lots of yellow, orange and red. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I think the cool departures will be greater this week vs next with a few >-10 this week yesterday.today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago If we eliminate any correction for urban heat island, the top ten summer averages run closer to Don's top ten. The top contenders would be 01_ 2010 _ 25.44 C __ 01 Don's list 02_ 1966 _ 25.18 C __ 02 Don 03_ 2005 _ 25.04 C __ 04_ 1993 _ 24.94 C __ 03 Don 05t_ 1983 _ 24.93 C __ 05t_ 2020 _ 24.93 C __ 07_ 1949 _ 24.92 C __ 08 Don 08t_ 2016 _ 24.85 C __ 08t_ 2022 _ 24.85 C __ 10t_ 1999 _ 24.83 C __ 05 Don 10t_ 1980 _ 24.80 C __ 06 Don 10t_ 1988 _ 24.80 C __ 07 Don 13_ 2024 _ 24.78 C __ 14_ 1995 _ 24.74 C __ 04 Don 15_ 1944 _ 24.72 C __ 16t_1943 _ 24.63 C __ 16t_2015 _ 24.63 C __ 18_ 1991 _ 24.61 C __ 19_ 1952 _ 24.59 C __ 20_ 1908 _ 24.56 C __ 21_ 1994 _ 24.55 C __ 10 Don 22_ 1973 _ 24.52 C __ 23_ 1876 _ 24.46 C __ 24t_1955 _ 24.43 C __ 24t_2002 _ 24.43 C __ 26_ 1971 _ 24.42 C __ 27t_1906 _ 24.41 C __ 27t_2011 _ 24.41 C __ 09 Don 27t_ 2021 _ 24.41 C __ 30_ 1939 _ 24.39 C __ 31_ 1981 _ 24.35 C __ 32_ 2018 _ 24.33 C __ 33_ 1953 _ 24.29 C __ 34_ 2013 _ 24.28 C __ 35t_1961 _ 24.22 C __ 35t_2019 _ 24.22 C __ 37_ 2012 _ 24.17 C __ 38_ 2008 _ 24.11 C __ This summer will finish somewhere near 30th. 1953 would move up several spots if we took June 4 to Sep 3. As I understand how Don constructed his index, this list basically tells you how well various summers converted their temperature regime to noteworthy hot days. More recent years all fail because their average warmth is based largely on overnight low performance combined with a steady unspectacular heat. If Don has a few minutes to spare, perhaps he could fill in the ranks of the other years above in his index. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Had to look at the calendar today. Is it August or October? Odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Supposed to hit 74 later but still sitting at 65 Skies getting brighter here and up to 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago It's 82° with crystally clear skies up here in Glens Falls right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, FPizz said: It was actually good here, but driving north up 287 for work into NY, the color north of route 80 was amazing. I tried to take pics while driving, this was the best I could get. Going 80 and taking pics not recommended, but lots of yellow, orange and red. You and I have had this conversation before I remember this pic haha I think we concluded it was hit and miss depending on the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 26 minutes ago, TriPol said: Had to look at the calendar today. Is it August or October? Odd Sun is out, temps low 70s. I was hoping it would stay cloudy, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Sundog said: You and I have had this conversation before I remember this pic haha I think we concluded it was hit and miss depending on the area. Yeah. I wish 287 had a scenic overlook to actually park my car and take a few pics. I guess in two months I'll see how this year compares to last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, Roger Smith said: If we eliminate any correction for urban heat island, the top ten summer averages run closer to Don's top ten. The top contenders would be 01_ 2010 _ 25.44 C __ 01 Don's list 02_ 1966 _ 25.18 C __ 02 Don 03_ 2005 _ 25.04 C __ 04_ 1993 _ 24.94 C __ 03 Don 05t_ 1983 _ 24.93 C __ 05t_ 2020 _ 24.93 C __ 07_ 1949 _ 24.92 C __ 08 Don 08t_ 2016 _ 24.85 C __ 08t_ 2022 _ 24.85 C __ 10t_ 1999 _ 24.83 C __ 05 Don 10t_ 1980 _ 24.80 C __ 06 Don 10t_ 1988 _ 24.80 C __ 07 Don 13_ 2024 _ 24.78 C __ 14_ 1995 _ 24.74 C __ 04 Don 15_ 1944 _ 24.72 C __ 16t_1943 _ 24.63 C __ 16t_2015 _ 24.63 C __ 18_ 1991 _ 24.61 C __ 19_ 1952 _ 24.59 C __ 20_ 1908 _ 24.56 C __ 21_ 1994 _ 24.55 C __ 10 Don 22_ 1973 _ 24.52 C __ 23_ 1876 _ 24.46 C __ 24t_1955 _ 24.43 C __ 24t_2002 _ 24.43 C __ 26_ 1971 _ 24.42 C __ 27t_1906 _ 24.41 C __ 27t_2011 _ 24.41 C __ 09 Don 27t_ 2021 _ 24.41 C __ 30_ 1939 _ 24.39 C __ 31_ 1981 _ 24.35 C __ 32_ 2018 _ 24.33 C __ 33_ 1953 _ 24.29 C __ 34_ 2013 _ 24.28 C __ 35t_1961 _ 24.22 C __ 35t_2019 _ 24.22 C __ 37_ 2012 _ 24.17 C __ 38_ 2008 _ 24.11 C __ This summer will finish somewhere near 30th. 1953 would move up several spots if we took June 4 to Sep 3. As I understand how Don constructed his index, this list basically tells you how well various summers converted their temperature regime to noteworthy hot days. More recent years all fail because their average warmth is based largely on overnight low performance combined with a steady unspectacular heat. If Don has a few minutes to spare, perhaps he could fill in the ranks of the other years above in his index. My list was developed based on four criteria for which data is widely available: 1. Mean temperature 2. Highest maximum temperature 3. Highest minimum temperature 4. Number of 90F/32.2C or above high temperatures These values were standardized (standard deviations from the historic mean values for the period of record) I ran the numbers weighting each of the four criteria equally (initial approach) and also placing 50% weight on the mean temperature and then allocating the remaining 50% weight equally among the remaining three criteria. Further, I ran these numbers for a true summer (June-August) and extended summer (June-September) scenario. The different approaches were utilized based on various comments and "what if" questions made in the thread. If asked, I lean toward the second approach to weights (50% weight for the mean temperature as opposed to equal weights for all criteria) for the June-September period, as even relatively cool summers can have a short bout of extreme heat. Weighting everything equally skews the values. Separately, but not posted, I also looked at how much warming over the historic period has influenced summer mean temperatures. The coefficient of determination was 0.25, meaning that 25% of the variation in mean summer temperatures is explained by the ongoing warming and 75% is explained by internal variability. That's actually a quite high figure explained by warming, alone. Here's what summers look like at Central Park (1869-2024): Here's what they look like when the warming component is removed (as expected, the trend would be 0, but I included the trend line to illustrate that the warming was fully removed): In other words, here's what they would look like were internal variability, alone, responsible. Based on the data, Summer 2010 was just over 1.1F warmer than it would have been without the warming. Based on the internal variability, if a summer similar to 1876 occurs, the mean would be around 78.5F for the summer given the warming. It's probably a matter of time before the Summer 2010 figure is eclipsed (probably no later than the 2030s). Moreover, when it happens, the margin by which the record is broken could be fairly large, as one has seen elsewhere in recent years where summer records were broken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Clearing more 75 / 59 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago Clouds were breaking across the region this afternoon as the rain of yesterday into this morning had departed. Rainfall amounts included: Bridgeport: None Hartford: 1.52" Islip: 0.38" New Haven: 0.81" New York City-Central Park: 0.78" New York City-JFK Airport: 1.03" New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 0.53" Newark: 0.68" Philadelphia: 0.14" Poughkeepsie: 1.23" White Plains: 1.21" It will turn warmer tomorrow. High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow through the weekend. The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +1.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.858 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 28 minutes ago Share Posted 28 minutes ago BDR rain gauge must be broken-we had about 1.50 inches here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 17 minutes ago Share Posted 17 minutes ago 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: BDR rain gauge must be broken-we had about 1.50 inches here Hopefully, a corrected figure will be provided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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