August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

high 90 so far...day 5 of my 6th heatwave churns on

matched you with a 90 here at 3 pm

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Heading for another season of 40 or more 90° days at the usual NJ warm spots. This is the first decade with so many 90° days through the first 6 summers of the 2020s.

The last cooler summer in NJ with most spots staying under 20 days was 2009. Have to go back to 1996 for Newark, Harrison, and SMQ to have under 10 days in the same season.

 

Data for January 1, 2025 through August 14, 2025 90° 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	35
Newark Area	ThreadEx	35
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	33
HARRISON	COOP	33
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	32
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	32

 

Data for January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	41
HARRISON	COOP	41
CANOE BROOK	COOP	37
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	35
Newark Area	ThreadEx	33
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	33
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	33
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	31
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	31
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	30
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	30

 

Data for January 1, 2023 through December 31, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

ESTELL MANOR	COOP	34
HARRISON	COOP	33
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	31
Newark Area	ThreadEx	29
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	29
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	24

 

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	53
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	49
Newark Area	ThreadEx	49
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	49
CANOE BROOK	COOP	47
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	46
HARRISON	COOP	44
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	43
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	43
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	42
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	41
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	40

 

Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	43
Newark Area	ThreadEx	41
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	41
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	41
HARRISON	COOP	38
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	37
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	36
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	36
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	36
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	33

 

Data for January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	42
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	40
HARRISON	COOP	39
CANOE BROOK	COOP	37
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	37
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	36
HAMMONTON 1 NE	COOP	32
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	31
Newark Area	ThreadEx	31
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	31
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	31
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	30
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	30
FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	30

 

Data for January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2009
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

WRIGHTSTOWN	COOP	22
CANOE BROOK	COOP	18
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	16
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	16
CRANFORD	COOP	16
SOMERDALE 4 SW	COOP	16
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	15
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	15
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	15
HARRISON	COOP	15
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	15
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	14
Newark Area	ThreadEx	14
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	14

Data for January 1, 1996 through December 31, 1996
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Newark Area	ThreadEx	9
CRANFORD	COOP	9
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	9
GLASSBORO 2 NE	COOP	8
HARRISON	COOP	8
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	7
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	7
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	7
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	7
FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	5
PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE	COOP	5
ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	5
BOONTON 1 SE	COOP	5
EWING 3 WNW	COOP	4
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	4
JERSEY CITY	COOP	4
LITTLE FALLS	COOP	4
WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	4
LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST	COOP	3
SANDY HOOK	COOP	3
SOMERVILLE 4 NW	COOP	3

Yes, the hotter places are hot as usual, not so hot for the rest of us.
I finally made it to 90 today for the first time this week.

It's not warm at night either, I turn off my a/c in the middle of the night.

I know New Jersey has a radically different climate from the rest of us (in the winter and the summer) but for us the 1990s and 2010s (at least the first half) were much hotter.  This decade the extreme heat is confined to areas away from the coast (except for that late June heatwave.)

For us climate change is much more about higher humidity than it is higher summertime temperatures.

 

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This outcome is consistent with the warming summers that the region has been experiencing. Warming is measured by summer mean temperature. I constructed a chart for seven regional sites for the last 60 years and pegged the shading to the median value for each site. 

Don this matches my experience of 1983 and 2010 being the two hottest summers of my lifetime.  I see Central Park was extremely hot in 1966 too (as was JFK).  Can you extend this further back to the beginning of the climate history of JFK which is 1948 (I wish it was 1944 lol).  I know 1949 and some of those 1950s summers were all extremely hot.

 

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like it wont be as sunny as earlier thought, at least tomorrow and Saturday, Don?  Onshore flow?

Tomorrow should be partly sunny. Clouds could become more numerous during the afternoon into the evening. We'll see how Saturday evolves.

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes it's warmer but not necessarily hotter (as in more extremely hot.)

 

I thought it would be useful to provide greater context to how things are evolving. Some of the most extreme heatwaves occurred during summers that are relatively cool by recent standards i.e., 1966 and 1977. Even as some of the extreme heat has not occurred, the tradeoff has been summer warmth that is greater and more persistent. Of course, there have been some hot summers that fit both criteria e.g., 2010.

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don this matches my experience of 1983 and 2010 being the two hottest summers of my lifetime.  I see Central Park was extremely hot in 1966 too (as was JFK).  Can you extend this further back to the beginning of the climate history of JFK which is 1948 (I wish it was 1944 lol).  I know 1949 and some of those 1950s summers were all extremely hot.

 

Here it is. Since the dataset goes back to 1948, I pegged the summer temperatures to the 1951-1980 mean (as in the NASA GISS record).

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here it is. Since the dataset goes back to 1948, I pegged the summer temperatures to the 1951-1980 mean (as in the NASA GISS record).

Thanks Don, it looks like the 1948-1949 period was the hottest until 1983-84 and then 2010 which really stands out.  Since then, hotter periods are happening more often although not to the extreme level of 2010.

Don, is there any way to ascertain if 1944 would have been hotter than the 1948-49 period even though there were no instruments there in 1944? Did Newark or LaGuardia have data going back to 1944? I know Central Park does, I think they were hotter in 1944.

 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I thought it would be useful to provide greater context to how things are evolving. Some of the most extreme heatwaves occurred during summers that are relatively cool by recent standards i.e., 1966 and 1977. Even as some of the extreme heat has not occurred, the tradeoff has been summer warmth that is greater and more persistent. Of course, there have been some hot summers that fit both criteria e.g., 2010.

Yes 2010 really stands out on these color coded charts Don.

Don, is there a way to rank summers like we rank winters aka the WSI?

If so I'd like to rank summers in terms of extreme temperatures, duration of heatwaves, highest average temperature, highest mins, highest dewpoints, etc.  Is there some way to factor in all the dimensions and derive a list of the top 10 summers that excel in all categories?

Just based on intuition and my memory of the data I'd like to enter my top 10 in chronological order:

Let's start with 1944 since that really stood out from that era.

1. 1944

2. 1948

3. 1949

4. 1953

5. 1955

6. 1966

7. 1977

8. 1983

9. 1993

10. 2010

 

If it wasn't confined to just 10 I would have added a few more-- 1980, 1988, 1991, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2005

 

Maybe we should do a Top 20 instead lol

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, it looks like the 1948-1949 period was the hottest until 1983-84 and then 2010 which really stands out.  Since then, hotter periods are happening more often although not to the extreme level of 2010.

Don, is there any way to ascertain if 1944 would have been hotter than the 1948-49 period even though there were no instruments there in 1944? Did Newark or LaGuardia have data going back to 1944? I know Central Park does, I think they were hotter in 1944.

 

Summer 1944 was somewhat cooler at Central Park (0.4°) and LaGuardia Airport (0.5°) than summer 1949.

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes 2010 really stands out on these color coded charts Don.

Don, is there a way to rank summers like we rank winters aka the WSI?

If so I'd like to rank summers in terms of extreme temperatures, duration of heatwaves, highest average temperature, highest mins, highest dewpoints, etc.  Is there some way to factor in all the dimensions and derive a list of the top 10 summers that excel in all categories?

Just based on intuition and my memory of the data I'd like to enter my top 10 in chronological order:

Let's start with 1944 since that really stood out from that era.

1. 1944

2. 1948

3. 1949

4. 1953

5. 1955

6. 1966

7. 1977

8. 1983

9. 1993

10. 2010

 

If it wasn't confined to just 10 I would have added a few more-- 1980, 1988, 1991, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2005

 

Maybe we should do a Top 20 instead lol

Here's a statistical ranking for JFK. The description is at the bottom of the chart. 

1966 was 11th (pulled down by its relatively cool mean temperature and cool highest minimum temperature). Summer 1948 isn't listed, because about half the days (46) had no data.

2025 is currently battling for the third spot, but it will likely fade lower given the forecast for the second half of August.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

TEB: 92
EWR: 91
PHL: 91
LGA: 90
TTN: 90
New Brnswck: 90
ISP: 89
NYC: 89
ACY: 88
BLM: 86
JFK: 85 * no intra hour highs again

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's a statistical ranking for JFK. The description is at the bottom of the chart. 

1966 was 11th (pulled down by its relatively cool mean temperature and cool highest minimum temperature). Summer 1948 isn't listed, because about half the days (46) had no data.

2025 is currently battling for the third spot, but it will likely fade lower given the forecast for the second half of August.

The higher humidity with dewpoints often over 75 helps heat it up overall since it carries more heat. So even though winds are onshore much of the time at JFK, it carries the higher dewpoints. 

[lee59]

90 today, 18th of season

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The higher humidity with dewpoints often over 75 helps heat it up overall since it carries more heat. So even though winds are onshore much of the time at JFK, it carries the higher dewpoints. 

Yes. That’s true. I don’t have a sufficient base of daily dewpoint data to add it into the mix.

[SACRUS]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Heading for another season of 40 or more 90° days at the usual NJ warm spots. This is the first decade with so many 90° days through the first 6 summers of the 2020s.

The last cooler summer in NJ with most spots staying under 20 days was 2009. Have to go back to 1996 for Newark, Harrison, and SMQ to have under 10 days in the same season.

 

Data for January 1, 1996 through December 31, 1996
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

 

 

 

For Newark there were only two seasons with under 10 90 degree days,

Here are the lowest years on record with full data sets

 

1933	19
1974	18
1938	18
1934	18
1950	18
1951	18
1954	18
2000	16
1978	16
1976	15
1969	15
1940	15
1942	15
2014	15
1960	15
2009	14
1935	14
1962	14
1956	14
2004	13
1946	12
1982	12
1975	12
1985	11
1996	9
1967	7

 

[donsutherland1]

Central Park and Islip had identical high and low temperatures for the first time since May 16th. During the 1991-2020 period, they had identical high and low temperatures on an average of 6.6 days per year.

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes 2010 really stands out on these color coded charts Don.

Don, is there a way to rank summers like we rank winters aka the WSI?

If so I'd like to rank summers in terms of extreme temperatures, duration of heatwaves, highest average temperature, highest mins, highest dewpoints, etc.  Is there some way to factor in all the dimensions and derive a list of the top 10 summers that excel in all categories?

Just based on intuition and my memory of the data I'd like to enter my top 10 in chronological order:

Let's start with 1944 since that really stood out from that era.

1. 1944

2. 1948

3. 1949

4. 1953

5. 1955

6. 1966

7. 1977

8. 1983

9. 1993

10. 2010

 

If it wasn't confined to just 10 I would have added a few more-- 1980, 1988, 1991, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2005

 

Maybe we should do a Top 20 instead lol

2005 looks like the hottest summer overall for New York State, per NCEI.

June & July 2025 came in it third place at 69.3F. Right now, I have August around 68.5F for a gridded statewide mean, which would yield a meteorological summer mean of 69.0F for the state. 2005 was a scorcher! With as hot as this summer has been, it's hard to believe it was more than 1F warmer. That's huge for a statewide average.

[psv88]

89 today. 

[uofmiami]

87.7 in Muttontown & 87.2 in Syosset today.

[winterwx21]

It hit 91 here today, so we made it a 5 day heat wave. It most likely ends tomorrow but it's going to be close. I think we'll probably stop at 88 here tomorrow, but we have a slight chance to extend the heat wave to 6 days. 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, the hotter places are hot as usual, not so hot for the rest of us.
I finally made it to 90 today for the first time this week.

It's not warm at night either, I turn off my a/c in the middle of the night.

I know New Jersey has a radically different climate from the rest of us (in the winter and the summer) but for us the 1990s and 2010s (at least the first half) were much hotter.  This decade the extreme heat is confined to areas away from the coast (except for that late June heatwave.)

For us climate change is much more about higher humidity than it is higher summertime temperatures.

 

The summer high tempersrures at JFK and Newark are rising at a similar rate. But JFK is still 4° cooler for summer highs than Newark since it’s right on the water with more sea breezes.

But if this current rate of warming continues, then JFK will start seeing a big increase in 90° days as the summer average gets closer to 90°. So the equivalent to Newark 90° days at JFK is 86°. 
 

JFK number of 86° days since 1996

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	29	139
2024	28	0
2023	23	0
2022	41	0
2021	35	0
2020	37	0
2019	35	0
2018	31	0
2017	28	0
2016	41	0
2015	49	0
2014	13	0
2013	24	0
2012	36	0
2011	36	0
2010	55	0
2009	15	0
2008	26	0
2007	20	0
2006	22	0
2005	32	0
2004	7	0
2003	22	0
2002	38	0
2001	18	0
2000	16	0
1999	27	0
1998	28	0
1997	25	0
1996	10	0

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

79 / 67 .  Continued warm, partly cloudy.  Isolated showers mainly South/West,  Mid 80s to 90 in the hot areas.   Weekend looking great for i think mostly 4 in a row now.  Split warm saturday mid 80s / upper 80s ,  Hot / Humid Sunday low - mid 90s, perhaps some 96,97 in the hottest areas, only isolated showers ot storms possible.  Onshore flow Monday NE flow keeps it coolers upper 70s / low 80s or perhaps some midnight/1Am highs Sunday overnight into Monday.  Erin hooks northeast mid week.  Week is near normal overall with onshore flow and scattered showers Wed/Thu mainly west of the areas as forecast.   Warmer by the end of the week and into next weekend briefly with perhaps next shot at 90 Sat or Sun.   Ridge west trough into the GL/NE with cooler period the following week.   Ridging coming east by the close of the month with warmer - hotter flow.

 

8/15 - 8/17:  Warm - Hot/ Humid - Heat Sunday - only isolated/scattered storms
8/18 - 8/22 :  Near normal - cooler than normal  Erin east
8/23 - 8/24 :   Warmer weekend perhaps a 90 in the hottest areas
8/25 - 8/28 :   Cooler 
8/29 - Beyond : Ridge builds warmer / hotter flow