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August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks


wdrag
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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Heading for another season of 40 or more 90° days at the usual NJ warm spots. This is the first decade with so many 90° days through the first 6 summers of the 2020s.

The last cooler summer in NJ with most spots staying under 20 days was 2009. Have to go back to 1996 for Newark, Harrison, and SMQ to have under 10 days in the same season.

 

Data for January 1, 2025 through August 14, 2025 90° 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 35
Newark Area ThreadEx 35
TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 33
HARRISON COOP 33
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 32
TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 32


 

Data for January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 41
HARRISON COOP 41
CANOE BROOK COOP 37
SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 35
Newark Area ThreadEx 33
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 33
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 33
INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 31
TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 31
PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 30
TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 30


 

Data for January 1, 2023 through December 31, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
ESTELL MANOR COOP 34
HARRISON COOP 33
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 31
Newark Area ThreadEx 29
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 29
SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 24


 

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 53
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 49
Newark Area ThreadEx 49
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49
CANOE BROOK COOP 47
SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 46
HARRISON COOP 44
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 43
New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 43
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 42
ESTELL MANOR COOP 41
INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 40


 

Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 43
Newark Area ThreadEx 41
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 41
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 41
HARRISON COOP 38
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 37
New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 36
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 36
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 36
SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 33


 

Data for January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 42
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 40
HARRISON COOP 39
CANOE BROOK COOP 37
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 37
ESTELL MANOR COOP 36
HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 32
Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 31
Newark Area ThreadEx 31
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 31
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 31
New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 30
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 30
FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 30


 

Data for January 1, 2009 through December 31, 2009
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 22
CANOE BROOK COOP 18
MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 16
PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 16
CRANFORD COOP 16
SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 16
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 15
New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 15
TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 15
HARRISON COOP 15
TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 15
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 14
Newark Area ThreadEx 14
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 14


Data for January 1, 1996 through December 31, 1996
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Newark Area ThreadEx 9
CRANFORD COOP 9
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 9
GLASSBORO 2 NE COOP 8
HARRISON COOP 8
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 7
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 7
New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 7
Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 7
FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 5
PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 5
ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 5
BOONTON 1 SE COOP 5
EWING 3 WNW COOP 4
Trenton Area ThreadEx 4
JERSEY CITY COOP 4
LITTLE FALLS COOP 4
WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 4
LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 3
SANDY HOOK COOP 3
SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 3

Yes, the hotter places are hot as usual, not so hot for the rest of us.
I finally made it to 90 today for the first time this week.

It's not warm at night either, I turn off my a/c in the middle of the night.

I know New Jersey has a radically different climate from the rest of us (in the winter and the summer) but for us the 1990s and 2010s (at least the first half) were much hotter.  This decade the extreme heat is confined to areas away from the coast (except for that late June heatwave.)

For us climate change is much more about higher humidity than it is higher summertime temperatures.

 

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59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This outcome is consistent with the warming summers that the region has been experiencing. Warming is measured by summer mean temperature. I constructed a chart for seven regional sites for the last 60 years and pegged the shading to the median value for each site. 

image.thumb.png.69e2542766fd3c09bb69f9f96b2156dd.png

Don this matches my experience of 1983 and 2010 being the two hottest summers of my lifetime.  I see Central Park was extremely hot in 1966 too (as was JFK).  Can you extend this further back to the beginning of the climate history of JFK which is 1948 (I wish it was 1944 lol).  I know 1949 and some of those 1950s summers were all extremely hot.

 

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20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like it wont be as sunny as earlier thought, at least tomorrow and Saturday, Don?  Onshore flow?

Tomorrow should be partly sunny. Clouds could become more numerous during the afternoon into the evening. We'll see how Saturday evolves.

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20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes it's warmer but not necessarily hotter (as in more extremely hot.)

 

I thought it would be useful to provide greater context to how things are evolving. Some of the most extreme heatwaves occurred during summers that are relatively cool by recent standards i.e., 1966 and 1977. Even as some of the extreme heat has not occurred, the tradeoff has been summer warmth that is greater and more persistent. Of course, there have been some hot summers that fit both criteria e.g., 2010.

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25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don this matches my experience of 1983 and 2010 being the two hottest summers of my lifetime.  I see Central Park was extremely hot in 1966 too (as was JFK).  Can you extend this further back to the beginning of the climate history of JFK which is 1948 (I wish it was 1944 lol).  I know 1949 and some of those 1950s summers were all extremely hot.

 

Here it is. Since the dataset goes back to 1948, I pegged the summer temperatures to the 1951-1980 mean (as in the NASA GISS record).

image.thumb.png.8d600c3688d8e0f4c2f5c9cb1b36a5c2.png

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24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here it is. Since the dataset goes back to 1948, I pegged the summer temperatures to the 1951-1980 mean (as in the NASA GISS record).

image.thumb.png.8d600c3688d8e0f4c2f5c9cb1b36a5c2.png

Thanks Don, it looks like the 1948-1949 period was the hottest until 1983-84 and then 2010 which really stands out.  Since then, hotter periods are happening more often although not to the extreme level of 2010.

Don, is there any way to ascertain if 1944 would have been hotter than the 1948-49 period even though there were no instruments there in 1944? Did Newark or LaGuardia have data going back to 1944? I know Central Park does, I think they were hotter in 1944.

 

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46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I thought it would be useful to provide greater context to how things are evolving. Some of the most extreme heatwaves occurred during summers that are relatively cool by recent standards i.e., 1966 and 1977. Even as some of the extreme heat has not occurred, the tradeoff has been summer warmth that is greater and more persistent. Of course, there have been some hot summers that fit both criteria e.g., 2010.

Yes 2010 really stands out on these color coded charts Don.

Don, is there a way to rank summers like we rank winters aka the WSI?

If so I'd like to rank summers in terms of extreme temperatures, duration of heatwaves, highest average temperature, highest mins, highest dewpoints, etc.  Is there some way to factor in all the dimensions and derive a list of the top 10 summers that excel in all categories?

Just based on intuition and my memory of the data I'd like to enter my top 10 in chronological order:

Let's start with 1944 since that really stood out from that era.

1. 1944

2. 1948

3. 1949

4. 1953

5. 1955

6. 1966

7. 1977

8. 1983

9. 1993

10. 2010

 

If it wasn't confined to just 10 I would have added a few more-- 1980, 1988, 1991, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2005

 

Maybe we should do a Top 20 instead lol

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31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, it looks like the 1948-1949 period was the hottest until 1983-84 and then 2010 which really stands out.  Since then, hotter periods are happening more often although not to the extreme level of 2010.

Don, is there any way to ascertain if 1944 would have been hotter than the 1948-49 period even though there were no instruments there in 1944? Did Newark or LaGuardia have data going back to 1944? I know Central Park does, I think they were hotter in 1944.

 

Summer 1944 was somewhat cooler at Central Park (0.4°) and LaGuardia Airport (0.5°) than summer 1949.

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36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes 2010 really stands out on these color coded charts Don.

Don, is there a way to rank summers like we rank winters aka the WSI?

If so I'd like to rank summers in terms of extreme temperatures, duration of heatwaves, highest average temperature, highest mins, highest dewpoints, etc.  Is there some way to factor in all the dimensions and derive a list of the top 10 summers that excel in all categories?

Just based on intuition and my memory of the data I'd like to enter my top 10 in chronological order:

Let's start with 1944 since that really stood out from that era.

1. 1944

2. 1948

3. 1949

4. 1953

5. 1955

6. 1966

7. 1977

8. 1983

9. 1993

10. 2010

 

If it wasn't confined to just 10 I would have added a few more-- 1980, 1988, 1991, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2005

 

Maybe we should do a Top 20 instead lol

Here's a statistical ranking for JFK. The description is at the bottom of the chart. 

image.png.9e3002d0bedb0b5cb2161c4130ca9d2a.png

1966 was 11th (pulled down by its relatively cool mean temperature and cool highest minimum temperature). Summer 1948 isn't listed, because about half the days (46) had no data.

2025 is currently battling for the third spot, but it will likely fade lower given the forecast for the second half of August.

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