August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[winterwarlock]

Dews are popping

 

87/78/99

[steve392]

87 degrees with a strong breeze out of the south.  It kinda helps cool you down even if just sitting in the shade.  Going to be a quick coffee while outside watching dog. 

[steve392]

Some big clouds to my north blocking all the sun for them... Luckyyyy

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The original idea of the heat this week coming in under June and July levels turned to be correct. This is what the models were originally showing before shifting to 102° heat in later runs. We haven’t had any 100° heat after August 13th since 1993. We also haven’t had 100° heat after August 10th since 2005. 
 

First/Last 100° Day Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1993	06-19 (1993)	102	09-03 (1993)	100	75
1953	06-21 (1953)	100	09-02 (1953)	105	72
1973	08-28 (1973)	100	08-28 (1973)	100	0
1948	08-26 (1948)	103	08-28 (1948)	102	1
2005	07-27 (2005)	101	08-13 (2005)	102	16
2002	07-04 (2002)	100	08-13 (2002)	100	39
1944	08-04 (1944)	100	08-13 (1944)	100	8
1949	07-03 (1949)	100	08-11 (1949)	102	38
2022	07-20 (2022)	100	08-09 (2022)	101	19
2001	08-07 (2001)	100	08-09 (2001)	105	1
2006	08-01 (2006)	100	08-03 (2006)	101	1
1955	07-05 (1955)	101	08-02 (1955)	100	27
2024	06-21 (2024)	100	08-01 (2024)	100	40

But I'd dispute that this can even be considered heat at all.

Someone said earlier that we should now consider 95+ to be heat.

I turn my a/c off at night because it gets so cold.

It's not hot at all.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Some big clouds to my north blocking all the sun for them... Luckyyyy

Hey the sun is nice!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The original idea of the heat this week coming in under June and July levels turned to be correct. This is what the models were originally showing before shifting to 102° heat in later runs. We haven’t had any 100° heat after August 13th since 1993. We also haven’t had 100° heat after August 10th since 2005. 
 

First/Last 100° Day Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1993	06-19 (1993)	102	09-03 (1993)	100	75
1953	06-21 (1953)	100	09-02 (1953)	105	72
1973	08-28 (1973)	100	08-28 (1973)	100	0
1948	08-26 (1948)	103	08-28 (1948)	102	1
2005	07-27 (2005)	101	08-13 (2005)	102	16
2002	07-04 (2002)	100	08-13 (2002)	100	39
1944	08-04 (1944)	100	08-13 (1944)	100	8
1949	07-03 (1949)	100	08-11 (1949)	102	38
2022	07-20 (2022)	100	08-09 (2022)	101	19
2001	08-07 (2001)	100	08-09 (2001)	105	1
2006	08-01 (2006)	100	08-03 (2006)	101	1
1955	07-05 (1955)	101	08-02 (1955)	100	27
2024	06-21 (2024)	100	08-01 (2024)	100	40

this is why 1993 and 1953 were such great summers (and it was hot everywhere and not just Newark.)

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There are many variables that are involved. SSTAs could promote a tendency for ridging in various locations. Teleconnections could influence the positioning of such synoptic features. Rossby waves can also shape the development of the synoptic pattern. 

is there a way to classify heatwaves the way we classify snowstorms Don?

For example, for KU events we have:

coverage of 4 inch snowfall

coverage of 10 inch snowfall

coverage of 20 inch snowfall

for heatwaves we can classify them 1-5 in the same way

coverage of 90 degree temperatures

coverage of 95 degree temperatures

coverage of 100 degree temperatures

on this scale the late June heatwave would be a 4 or even a 5 !

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Bermuda high has been shifting much further north during recent summers leading to more onshore flow here and record heat going to our north were the deep SW flow sets up.

This summer represents a turning point because we finally got a really strong hot ridge in June that gave us all 100+ degree temperatures.  I think we are cycling back to that-- this summer was the first shot across the bow.

How strong would the ridge have to be to give everyone over 100 degree temperatures from Canada all the way down to the Carolinas?

 

[winterwarlock]

Day 4 of 6th Heatwave rolls on

 

90/77/100

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Bermuda high has been shifting much further north during recent summers leading to more onshore flow here and record heat going to our north were the deep SW flow sets up.

also, what happened to that heat ridge from the west that gave us our big heat in late June?

we don't usually get our hottest weather from a Bermuda High, our hottest weather comes from when the big ridge out west expands eastward

 

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

is there a way to classify heatwaves the way we classify snowstorms Don?

For example, for KU events we have:

coverage of 4 inch snowfall

coverage of 10 inch snowfall

coverage of 20 inch snowfall

for heatwaves we can classify them 1-5 in the same way

coverage of 90 degree temperatures

coverage of 95 degree temperatures

coverage of 100 degree temperatures

on this scale the late June heatwave would be a 4 or even a 5 !

 

Conceptually, it could be done. I suspect that reasons that such classifications have not been pursued are the additional elements of duration and nighttime temperatures that help define heatwave severity.

[Stormlover74]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

is there a way to classify heatwaves the way we classify snowstorms Don?

For example, for KU events we have:

coverage of 4 inch snowfall

coverage of 10 inch snowfall

coverage of 20 inch snowfall

for heatwaves we can classify them 1-5 in the same way

coverage of 90 degree temperatures

coverage of 95 degree temperatures

coverage of 100 degree temperatures

on this scale the late June heatwave would be a 4 or even a 5 !

 

Yeah the current one is pretty lame. No 95+ so it gets a 1 out of 5

[forkyfork]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah the current one is pretty lame. No 95+ so it gets a 1 out of 5

we used to get entire summer months that didn't hit 90

[SACRUS]

 

90 / 70 

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

I would be happy with anything honestly.  So dry.   Anything over 1/2" would be a gift.

Almost no rain the last few weeks. We went from flooding to an extremely dry ground here. I'm having to water the vegetable garden almost every day. As Stormlover said, today's activity will be hit or miss. I'm really hoping we get a heavy downpour today, but I'm heading down to Seaside Heights so I won't be here to see it if it happens. 

[winterwx21]

16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes clear skies and some are saying tonight is the peak?

I thought it was last night lol

I went outside last night at 1am and watched for an hour. As expected, it was nothing like last year's show due to the bright moon. The moon was in the part of the sky in which I saw the most meteors last year. It really ruined the show .... I only saw a few faint looking ones.

I'm looking forward to the Geminid meteor shower in december. The moon won't be an issue so that should be by far the best meteor shower of the year. Hopefully we'll have clear skies for it. I don't care about being out there in colder weather as long as it's a nice show. 

[LoboLeader1]

94/75

[Dark Star]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

They really should have and actually the beaches should be closed if there are no lifeguards there. The other person who died was a grandmother at Manhattan Beach in Brooklyn.  In both cases it was after lifeguards left at 5 pm.  They should either make the lifeguards work until 8 pm (sun set) or close the beaches at 5 pm when they leave.

When that hurricane recurves the rip current problem will be even worse.

 

Lifeguards, although certified, are not "full time" employees.  They would have to have several shifts, meaning hiring even more to extend the hours.  I am surprised in NJ that they even allow paying to get onto the beaches, since any land directly affected by the daily tides is considered public property, meaning you can't prevent anybody from being on it.  I had a bayfront house on Barnegat Bay, until Sandy took it away.  While not affected by riptides, I always tried to keep an eye on my kids, being right on the water.  Signs are posted.  If you live down near the ocean beaches, you would have to keep your young children from going to the beach without guardianship.  Easier said than done.  Should people be prevented from walking near the surf in the evening?  I can't say.  When I was 18, I went into the ocean and there was an extremely strong under tow.  My friend had to escort me out of the ocean even though I was only waist deep.  Gotta respect the ocean...

[Sundog]

12 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Lifeguards, although certified, are not "full time" employees.  They would have to have several shifts, meaning hiring even more to extend the hours.  I am surprised in NJ that they even allow paying to get onto the beaches, since any land directly affected by the daily tides is considered public property, meaning you can't prevent anybody from being on it.  I had a bayfront house on Barnegat Bay, until Sandy took it away.  While not affected by riptides, I always tried to keep an eye on my kids, being right on the water.  Signs are posted.  If you live down near the ocean beaches, you would have to keep your young children from going to the beach without guardianship.  Easier said than done.  Should people be prevented from walking near the surf in the evening?  I can't say.  When I was 18, I went into the ocean and there was an extremely strong under tow.  My friend had to escort me out of the ocean even though I was only waist deep.  Gotta respect the ocean...

People should be allowed to swim if they want. Lifeguards or not. 

Should we hire armed guards to make sure no one sneaks onto the beach after all beachgoers have been escorted off the sand when the lifeguards leave?

If the the town put up appropriate signs of dangers then after that it's up to you if you want to ignore them.