LibertyBell Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 4 hours ago, steve392 said: Watch your language! Disgusting! 100/55 sounds pretty good though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Warmer than areas to the east like Long Island which get regular cooling sea breezes. A few NJ COOP sites have been warmer recently. Harrison has been pretty close. NJ just happens to be a very warm area away from the sea breeze. Data for June 21, 2025 through July 31, 2025 Average Maximum TemperarureClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SEABROOK FARMS COOP 92.8 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 92.6 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 91.5 Newark Area ThreadEx 91.5 HARRISON COOP 91.0 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 90.7 OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 90.6 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 90.5 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 90.2 BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 90.0 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 90.0 map Data for June 21, 2025 through July 31, 2025 Maximum TemperatureClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 HARRISON COOP 103 Newark Area ThreadEx 103 OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 103 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 102 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 102 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 102 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 101 CANOE BROOK COOP 101 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 101 ESTELL MANOR COOP 101 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 100 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 100 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 100 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 100 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 100 SALEM COOP 100 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 100 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 100 The reason I single out EWR though is because its number of 90 degree days always seem to be much more in line with PHL than they are with NYC even going back to the early 90s. Their summers are very Philly like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Highs: EWR: 91 TEB: 91 LGA: 90 ISP: 89 New Brnswck: 89 NYC: 89 PHL: 88 TTN: 87 BLM: 86 JFK: 85 * missing intre hour highs 1400 - 1900 ACY: 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 4 hours ago, winterwarlock said: 90 Heatwave #6 hopes stay alive That's not a heatwave in our 2025 CC era, that's called normal. 95+ for 3 days should be the new criteria 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago The 18z GFS has a recurver off the coast next Friday, but with some high clouds and NE or easterly winds, it gets us to near 90 degrees? That's BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and even lower 90s across the region. Far more impressive heat covered upstate New York, northern New England, southern Quebec, and New Brunswick. Near record to record highs were commonplace. Highs included: Bangor: 96° Buffalo: 91° Burlington: 96° Caribou: 94° (old record: 92°, 2020) Concord: 97° Manchester: 96° Plattsburgh: 91° (tied record set in 1970) Saranac Lake: 90° Miramichi, NB hit 99°. That is its second highest temperature on record. Montreal also topped out at 94°. Tomorrow through Thursday will be hot days across the region. Temperatures could top out in the lower and middle 90s in the hot spots. Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend. The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was -10.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.449 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago High of 93 here, same as yesterday. Very dry summer here, that July 31st event being the only exception. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and even lower 90s across the region. Far more impressive heat covered upstate New York, northern New England, southern Quebec, and New Brunswick. Near record to record highs were commonplace. Highs included: Bangor: 96° Buffalo: 91° Burlington: 96° Caribou: 94° (old record: 92°, 2020) Concord: 97° Manchester: 96° Plattsburgh: 91° (tied record set in 1970) Saranac Lake: 90° Miramichi, NB hit 99°. That is its second highest temperature on record. Montreal also topped out at 94°. Tomorrow through Thursday will be hot days across the region. Temperatures could top out in the lower and middle 90s in the hot spots. Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend. The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was -10.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.449 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Some very impressive highs across the "Empire State" including 96 at Dansville, 95 at Massena, 95 at Ogdensburg, 94 at Fort Drum, 93 at Fulton and Syracuse. The Miramichi, NB reading was 37.6C BTW, or 99.68F (basically 100F if you use typical American temperature rounding)! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: That's not a heatwave in our 2025 CC era, that's called normal. 95+ for 3 days should be the new criteria Too bad so sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: That's not a heatwave in our 2025 CC era, that's called normal. 95+ for 3 days should be the new criteria I agree. Especially when heat index are below 90° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wow that sounds like absolutely perfect weather! Great for the peak of the Perseids tonight too! Yes, hoping tomorrow evening still has good viewing because moon will rise a bit later (it's 10:00 pm here, already cooled down nicely to 72 F, and a big old moon looking like God's ear above the horizon now in east-south-east). Except for moon we have very dark skies outside of town here, good for viewing auroral displays and meteor showers and night sky etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 62, beautiful sunrise. Must've had a sprinkle of rain overnight as my windshield has dried up water drops on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 12 hours ago, LibertyBell said: The reason I single out EWR though is because its number of 90 degree days always seem to be much more in line with PHL than they are with NYC even going back to the early 90s. Their summers are very Philly like. All the warm spots from Philly to Corona, Queens are pretty uniform around 30 days reaching 90°. 90° days for 2025 so far Philly…30 Highstown…32 TEB…31 EWR…33 Harrison….30 Corona…27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Great week to be at the NJ shore warmers warm too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 75 / 69 - most humid day in a week or so. Upper 80s / low 90s. Tomorrow PM and Thursday pending on clouds and rain / showers (0.25 - 0.50) continues the heatwave or makes a heatwave for others. Continues warm - hot through Monday or Tuesday next week as Erin approaches and then gets the big hook out to sea as currently projected. Ridge backs west similar to the opening week of August in the 8/20 - 8/25 period, with the Atlantic ridge nearby - should see a warmer week by the 25/26th, and see if the Atlantic ridge exceeds most forecasts as has been the tendency. 8/12 - 8/18 : Warm - hot / humid - Strongest heat Sunday/Monday 8/19 - transition day pending on trough/front Erin approaches and hooks northeast Out to sea 8/20 - 8/25 : RIdge back west - cooler period - near normal to below (similar to 8/1 - 8/6) 8/26 - Beyond : Warmer / some potential heat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Hopefully, we can get the Erin recurve west of Bermuda next week so the WAR gets weakened enough. Big shift to cooler on the EPS for the 18-25. Now the models have a trough along the East Coast instead of a ridge. Longer range will continue to be about the tropics. If we keep getting troughs in the East and tropical systems moving into the weakness, then maybe we can avoid 95+ heat after August 20th. But if the tropical moisture remains east, then the drought conditions will continue expanding. It’s already been the driest summer on record for spots like BDR. The tropics will continue to be the wild card into September. Since a continuing dry pattern and any lack of tropical systems and Eastern trough would allow the ridge to expand again. So the pattern could be mid-August warmth…late August closer to average…early September rebound in temperatures if we stay dry. But enhanced tropical activity in early September could push back against the heat by lowering heights over the Western Atlantic. Cooler trends for August 18-25 New runs Old runs 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (2021) NYC: 97 (1944) LGA: 98 (2021) JFK: 92 (1970) Lows: EWR: 54 (1954) NYC: 55 (1889) LGA: 56 (1979) JFK: 55 (1979) Historical: Posted August 13, 2024 Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (2021) NYC: 97 (1944) LGA: 98 (2021) JFK: 92 (1970) Lows: EWR: 54 (1954) NYC: 55 (1889) LGA: 56 (1979) JFK: 55 (1979) Historical: 1752 - The following is from the Journals of the Rev. Thomas Smith, and the Rev. Samuel Deane, published in 1849. In the evening there was dismal thunder and lightning, and abundance of rain, and such a hurricane as was never the like in these parts of the world. This hurricane struck Portland, 1752: Portland, Maine: “It blew down houses and barns, trees, corn and everything in its way. Such a hurricane as was never the like in these parts of the world” — Rev. Thomas Smith (Ref. WxDoctor) Maine. 1778 - A Rhode Island hurricane prevented an impending British-French sea battle, and caused extensive damage over southeast New England. (David Ludlum) 1901: Three inches of rain fell in 40 minutes during the morning at Rancocas, NJ. A similar event occurred in the same region 99 years later. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1910: Electrical storms ignited numerous forest fires in the Bitterroot Mountains of Idaho. Entire towns were burned and 163 people died, including 78 firefighters. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1933 - The temperature at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, CA, hit 127 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of August. (The Weather Channel) 1936 - The temperature at Seymour, TX, hit 120 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1936: The temperature at Seymour, TX hit 120° to establish a state record. Altus tied the Oklahoma state temperature record by reaching 120°. The high of 109° tied the record high for the month of August at Dodge City, KS. From the 12th through the 24th, there was a record 13 days on which temperatures reached 100° or more at St. Louis, MO. (Ref. The Weather Channel) (Ref. WxDoctor) 1955 - During the second week of August hurricanes Connie and Diane produced as much as 19 inches of rain in the northeastern U.S. forcing rivers from Virginia to Massachusetts into a high flood. Westfield MA was deluged with 18.15 inches of rain in 24 hours, and at Woonsocket RI the Blackstone River swelled from seventy feet in width to a mile and a half. Connecticut and the Delaware Valley were hardest hit. Total damage in New England was 800 million dollars, and flooding claimed 187 lives. (David Ludlum) 1955: The greatest DAILY precipitation to occur in the month of August or any month in Richmond, Virginia was 8.79 inches from Hurricane Connie. (Ref. Richmond International Airport Records) 1982: Sparta, WI recorded their coldest August temperature with 32°. This is also their earliest freezing temperature. La Crosse, WI set a record low with 46 °F.: (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985: The "New Lisbon Tornado" F2 tornado set down south of Kendall, WI, destroying a barn and damaging a home before moving northeast into Juneau County. The tornado moved from the countryside into New Lisbon, ripping through a trailer court on the northern edge of town before dissipating on the north edge of Castle Rock Lake. A couple was killed and 22 others were injured in Juneau County. Numerous trees and power lines were downed, including 100 acres of forest at Buckhorn State Park. Over $620,000 in damage occurred. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Early afternoon thunderstorms in Arizona produced 3.90 inches of rain in ninety minutes at Walnut National Monument (located east of Flagstaff), along with three inches of pea size hail, which had to be plowed off the roads. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Fifteen cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Youngstown OH reported twenty-six days of 90 degree weather for the year, a total equal to that for the entire decade of the 1970s. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms were scattered across nearly every state in the Union by late in the day. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Fergus Falls MN, and golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph at Black Creek WI. In the Chicago area, seven persons at a forest preserve in North Riverside were injured by lightning. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1993: The Great Mississippi River Flood continued as flood waters flowing past Tarbert Landing, , MS reached 832,000 cubic feet per second, which is nearly 4 times the normal August flow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1999: Severe thunderstorms developed in west central Illinois during the early evening, and moved to the Indiana border during the next several hours. Winds gusting over 80 mph caused over $50 million dollars in crop damage to Schuyler, Mason, Menard, Logan, Cass, Morgan and Scott Counties. Miles of power lines were blown down in Cass County, and numerous trees were damaged through the area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2000: Three inches of rain fell in 40 minutes during the morning at Rancocas, NJ. A similar event occurred in the same region 99 years before. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2001: An Amelia County, VA man was struck and injured by lightning in his home after lightning hit a porch railing and jumped to the door he had been holding. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) Overnight rains up to 8.4 inches in Sussex County, Delaware led to failure of a dam on Hearns Pond during the early morning. Historic Hearns and Rawlings Mills were heavily damaged, along with roads and buildings, with damage at $1.1 million dollars.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2004: Hurricane Charley was the third named storm and the second hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season. Charley lasted from August 9 to August 15, and at its peak intensity, it attained 150 mph winds, making it a strong Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. It made landfall in southwestern Florida at maximum strength, making it the most powerful hurricane to hit the United States since Hurricane Andrew struck Florida in 1992. 2004: Bonnie made landfall as a 45 mph (72 km/h) tropical storm just south of Apalachicola, Florida on August 12. It accelerated northeastward, and became a remnant area of low pressure on August 14 to the southeast of New Jersey. 2005 - A tornado strikes Wright, Wyoming, a coal-mining community, killing two and destroying 91 homes and damaging about 30 more in around the town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, we can get the Erin recurve west of Bermuda next week so the WAR gets weakened enough. Big shift to cooler on the EPS for the 18-25. Now the models have a trough along the East Coast instead of a ridge. Longer range will continue to be about the tropics. If we keep getting troughs in the East and tropical systems moving into the weakness, then maybe we can avoid 95+ heat after August 20th. But if the tropical moisture remains east, then the drought conditions will continue expanding. It’s already been the driest summer on record for spots like BDR. The tropics will continue to be the wild card into September. Since a continuing dry pattern and any lack of tropical systems and Eastern trough would allow the ridge to expand again. So the pattern could be mid-August warmth…late August closer to average…early September rebound in temperatures if we stay dry. But enhanced tropical activity in early September could push back against the heat by lowering heights over the Western Atlantic. Cooler trends for August 18-25 New runs Old runs Eastern North America is night and day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 56 minutes ago, Sundog said: Eastern North America is night and day It was pretty much wall to wall heat and ridging from June 21st through July 31st. We got a relaxation of this pattern for the first week of August. This current heat wave is a weaker reflection of what we got back in June and July. So the shift in the modeling for next week is the hurricane lowering heights in the East as it recurves west of Bermuda. Would like to see some improvement in the rainfall situation. Since we have seen time and time again how heat has remerged in September into October during dry patterns. We would at least need to keep the tropics active in Atlantic to have a shot at avoiding potential fall record heat when the pattern has been so dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago if erin doesn't recurve it changes the whole pattern. i could see it slipping south into the gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Very upside down month, based on the average highs for the first 11 days of August. Charlotte is nearly 7F colder than Burlington, Vermont, and 6F colder than Buffalo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: Very upside down month, based on the average highs for the first 11 days of August. Charlotte is nearly 7F colder than Burlington, Vermont, and 6F colder than Buffalo. Onshore barrage / heavy rain there. We had more like a California first week here dry / onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 30 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if erin doesn't recurve it changes the whole pattern. i could see it slipping south into the gulf Not from that latitude way out east. This recurving near or just west of Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Not from that latitude way out east. This recurving near or just west of Bermuda it needs to develop into something first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Yeah, some of the AIFS members are closer to the Southeast than the EPS. This would be a big modeling coup for AI if it comes to pass. Could affect the whole pattern going forward. A slower development would allow a more southerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 86 / 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 hours ago, bluewave said: All the warm spots from Philly to Corona, Queens are pretty uniform around 30 days reaching 90°. 90° days for 2025 so far Philly…30 Highstown…32 TEB…31 EWR…33 Harrison….30 Corona…27 In my experience, all these urban locations are much hotter than the suburban places I'm used to. I can tell you about my experiences driving from here to the Poconos, there are two main heat spikes, one is in Queens and the other one is in Eastern NJ. I find both of these places intolerable to walk around outside in more than a few minutes so I didn't unless I was out of gas lol. Once I drove past eastern NJ on I-80 and got past about Morristown, the weather always got much nicer. It's like this every summer, no matter how hot it is, those places are always hot. I can understand why some people have to work in these places, but why would anyone ever want to live there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 32 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Very upside down month, based on the average highs for the first 11 days of August. Charlotte is nearly 7F colder than Burlington, Vermont, and 6F colder than Buffalo. This is normal as the hottest departures always seem to be to the north. The Arctic has been heating up faster than any other region on the planet. I'm sure eventually, as the years ago by, those departures will reach us. It's like a fire spreading from the roof through the attic and then downwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: if erin doesn't recurve it changes the whole pattern. i could see it slipping south into the gulf would that make it hotter or would a recurving hurricane make it hotter here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It was pretty much wall to wall heat and ridging from June 21st through July 31st. We got a relaxation of this pattern for the first week of August. This current heat wave is a weaker reflection of what we got back in June and July. So the shift in the modeling for next week is the hurricane lowering heights in the East as it recurves west of Bermuda. Would like to see some improvement in the rainfall situation. Since we have seen time and time again how heat has remerged in September into October during dry patterns. We would at least need to keep the tropics active in Atlantic to have a shot at avoiding potential fall record heat when the pattern has been so dry. I think it could be like last fall, but don't see any fall record heat, as it's going to hard to beat 1983 when it comes to September heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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