August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, steve392 said:

Watch your language!  Disgusting!  

100/55 sounds pretty good though lol

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Warmer than areas to the east like Long Island which get regular cooling sea breezes. A few NJ COOP sites have been warmer recently. Harrison has been pretty close. NJ just happens to be a very warm area away from the sea breeze. 

 

Data for June 21, 2025 through July 31, 2025 Average Maximum Temperarure
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SEABROOK FARMS	COOP	92.8
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	92.6
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	91.5
Newark Area	ThreadEx	91.5
HARRISON	COOP	91.0
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	90.7
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT	WBAN	90.6
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	90.5
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	90.2
BELVIDERE BRIDGE	COOP	90.0
Belvidere Area	ThreadEx	90.0

 

map

Data for June 21, 2025 through July 31, 2025 Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	103
HARRISON	COOP	103
Newark Area	ThreadEx	103
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT	WBAN	103
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	102
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	102
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	102
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	101
LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST	COOP	101
CANOE BROOK	COOP	101
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	101
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	101
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	101
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	101
SEABROOK FARMS	COOP	100
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	100
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	100
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	100
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	100
PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO	COOP	100
SALEM	COOP	100
EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY	RAWS	100
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	100

 

The reason I single out EWR though is because its number of 90 degree days always seem to be much more in line with PHL than they are with NYC even going back to the early 90s.

Their summers are very Philly like.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 91
TEB: 91
LGA: 90
ISP: 89
New Brnswck: 89
NYC: 89
PHL: 88
TTN: 87
BLM: 86
JFK: 85 * missing intre hour highs 1400 - 1900
ACY: 83

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

90

 

Heatwave #6 hopes stay alive

That's not a heatwave in our 2025 CC era, that's called normal. 

95+ for 3 days should be the new criteria 

[Sundog]

The 18z GFS has a recurver off the coast next Friday, but with some high clouds and NE or easterly winds, it gets us to near 90 degrees?

That's BS

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and even lower 90s across the region. Far more impressive heat covered upstate New York, northern New England, southern Quebec, and New Brunswick. Near record to record highs were commonplace. Highs included:

Bangor: 96°
Buffalo: 91°
Burlington: 96°
Caribou: 94° (old record: 92°, 2020)
Concord: 97°
Manchester: 96°
Plattsburgh: 91° (tied record set in 1970)
Saranac Lake: 90°

Miramichi, NB hit 99°. That is its second highest temperature on record. Montreal also topped out at 94°.

Tomorrow through Thursday will be hot days across the region. Temperatures could top out in the lower and middle 90s in the hot spots. 

Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend.

The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -10.80 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.449 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[Cfa]

High of 93 here, same as yesterday.

Very dry summer here, that July 31st event being the only exception.

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and even lower 90s across the region. Far more impressive heat covered upstate New York, northern New England, southern Quebec, and New Brunswick. Near record to record highs were commonplace. Highs included:

Bangor: 96°
Buffalo: 91°
Burlington: 96°
Caribou: 94° (old record: 92°, 2020)
Concord: 97°
Manchester: 96°
Plattsburgh: 91° (tied record set in 1970)
Saranac Lake: 90°

Miramichi, NB hit 99°. That is its second highest temperature on record. Montreal also topped out at 94°.

Tomorrow through Thursday will be hot days across the region. Temperatures could top out in the lower and middle 90s in the hot spots. 

Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend.

The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -10.80 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.449 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Some very impressive highs across the "Empire State" including 96 at Dansville, 95 at Massena, 95 at Ogdensburg, 94 at Fort Drum, 93 at Fulton and Syracuse. The Miramichi, NB reading was 37.6C BTW, or 99.68F (basically 100F if you use typical American temperature rounding)!

[winterwarlock]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's not a heatwave in our 2025 CC era, that's called normal. 

95+ for 3 days should be the new criteria 

Too bad so sad

[binbisso]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's not a heatwave in our 2025 CC era, that's called normal. 

95+ for 3 days should be the new criteria 

I agree. Especially when heat index are below 90°

[Roger Smith]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow that sounds like absolutely perfect weather!

Great for the peak of the Perseids tonight too!

Yes, hoping tomorrow evening still has good viewing because moon will rise a bit later (it's 10:00 pm here, already cooled down nicely to 72 F, and a big old moon looking like God's ear above the horizon now in east-south-east). Except for moon we have very dark skies outside of town here, good for viewing auroral displays and meteor showers and night sky etc. 

[steve392]

62, beautiful sunrise.  Must've had a sprinkle of rain overnight as my windshield has dried up water drops on it.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The reason I single out EWR though is because its number of 90 degree days always seem to be much more in line with PHL than they are with NYC even going back to the early 90s.

Their summers are very Philly like.

 

All the warm spots from Philly to Corona, Queens are pretty uniform around 30 days reaching 90°.

90° days for 2025 so far

Philly…30

Highstown…32

TEB…31

EWR…33

Harrison….30

Corona…27

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

Great week to be at the NJ shore warmers warm too

[SACRUS]

 

75 / 69 - most humid day in a week or so.   Upper 80s / low 90s.  Tomorrow PM and Thursday  pending on clouds and rain / showers (0.25 - 0.50) continues the heatwave or makes a heatwave for others.   Continues warm - hot through Monday or Tuesday next week as Erin approaches and then gets the big hook out to sea as currently projected.  Ridge backs west similar to the opening week of August in the 8/20 - 8/25 period, with the Atlantic ridge nearby - should see a warmer week by the 25/26th, and see if the Atlantic ridge exceeds most forecasts as has been the tendency.

 

8/12 - 8/18 :  Warm - hot / humid - Strongest heat Sunday/Monday
8/19 - transition day pending on trough/front   Erin approaches and hooks northeast Out to sea
8/20 - 8/25 :  RIdge back west -  cooler period - near normal to below (similar to 8/1 - 8/6)
8/26 - Beyond :  Warmer / some potential heat

 

[bluewave]

Hopefully, we can get the Erin recurve west of Bermuda next week so the WAR gets weakened enough. Big shift to cooler on the EPS for the 18-25. Now the models have a trough along the East Coast instead of a ridge. 

Longer range will continue to be about the tropics. If we keep getting troughs in the East and tropical systems moving into the weakness, then maybe we can avoid 95+ heat after August 20th.

But if the tropical moisture remains east, then the drought conditions will continue expanding. It’s already been the driest summer on record for spots like BDR. 

The tropics will continue to be the wild card into September. Since a continuing dry pattern and any lack of tropical systems and Eastern  trough would allow the ridge to expand again. 

So the pattern could be mid-August warmth…late August closer to average…early September rebound in temperatures if we stay dry. But enhanced tropical activity in early September could push back against the heat by lowering heights over the Western Atlantic.

Cooler trends for August 18-25

New runs

Old runs

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2021)
NYC: 97 (1944)
LGA: 98 (2021)
JFK: 92 (1970)


Lows:

EWR: 54 (1954)
NYC: 55 (1889)
LGA: 56 (1979)
JFK: 55 (1979)


Historical:
 

Posted August 13, 2024

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  98 (2021)
NYC: 97 (1944)
LGA: 98 (2021)
JFK: 92 (1970)


Lows: 

EWR: 54 (1954)
NYC: 55 (1889)
LGA: 56 (1979)
JFK: 55 (1979)

Historical:

 

1752 - The following is from the Journals of the Rev. Thomas Smith, and the Rev. Samuel Deane, published in 1849. In the evening there was dismal thunder and lightning, and abundance of rain, and such a hurricane as was never the like in these parts of the world. This hurricane struck Portland,

 

1752: Portland, Maine: “It blew down houses and barns, trees, corn and everything in its way. Such a hurricane as was never the like in these parts of the world” — Rev. Thomas Smith (Ref. WxDoctor) Maine.

1778 - A Rhode Island hurricane prevented an impending British-French sea battle, and caused extensive damage over southeast New England. (David Ludlum)

 

1901: Three inches of rain fell in 40 minutes during the morning at Rancocas, NJ. A similar event occurred in the same region 99 years later.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1910: Electrical storms ignited numerous forest fires in the Bitterroot Mountains of Idaho. Entire towns were burned and 163 people died, including 78 firefighters. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1933 - The temperature at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, CA, hit 127 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of August. (The Weather Channel)

1936 - The temperature at Seymour, TX, hit 120 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

 

1936: The temperature at Seymour, TX hit 120° to establish a state record. Altus tied the Oklahoma state temperature record by reaching 120°. The high of 109° tied the record high for the month of August at Dodge City, KS. From the 12th through the 24th, there was a record 13 days on which temperatures reached 100° or more at St. Louis, MO. (Ref. The Weather Channel) (Ref. WxDoctor)

1955 - During the second week of August hurricanes Connie and Diane produced as much as 19 inches of rain in the northeastern U.S. forcing rivers from Virginia to Massachusetts into a high flood. Westfield MA was deluged with 18.15 inches of rain in 24 hours, and at Woonsocket RI the Blackstone River swelled from seventy feet in width to a mile and a half. Connecticut and the Delaware Valley were hardest hit. Total damage in New England was 800 million dollars, and flooding claimed 187 lives. (David Ludlum)

1955: The greatest DAILY precipitation to occur in the month of August or any month in Richmond, Virginia was 8.79 inches from Hurricane Connie. (Ref. Richmond International Airport Records)

1982: Sparta, WI recorded their coldest August temperature with 32°. This is also their earliest freezing temperature. La Crosse, WI set a record low with 46 °F.: (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1985: The "New Lisbon Tornado" F2 tornado set down south of Kendall, WI, destroying a barn and damaging a home before moving northeast into Juneau County. The tornado moved from the countryside into New Lisbon, ripping through a trailer court on the northern edge of town before dissipating on the north edge of Castle Rock Lake. A couple was killed and 22 others were injured in Juneau County. Numerous trees and power lines were downed, including 100 acres of forest at Buckhorn State Park. Over $620,000 in damage occurred. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Early afternoon thunderstorms in Arizona produced 3.90 inches of rain in ninety minutes at Walnut National Monument (located east of Flagstaff), along with three inches of pea size hail, which had to be plowed off the roads. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Fifteen cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Youngstown OH reported twenty-six days of 90 degree weather for the year, a total equal to that for the entire decade of the 1970s. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms were scattered across nearly every state in the Union by late in the day. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Fergus Falls MN, and golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph at Black Creek WI. In the Chicago area, seven persons at a forest preserve in North Riverside were injured by lightning. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1993: The Great Mississippi River Flood continued as flood waters flowing past Tarbert Landing, , MS reached 832,000 cubic feet per second, which is nearly 4 times the normal August flow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1999: Severe thunderstorms developed in west central Illinois during the early evening, and moved to the Indiana border during the next several hours. Winds gusting over 80 mph caused over $50 million dollars in crop damage to Schuyler, Mason, Menard, Logan, Cass, Morgan and Scott Counties. Miles of power lines were blown down in Cass County, and numerous trees were damaged through the area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2000: Three inches of rain fell in 40 minutes during the morning at Rancocas, NJ. A similar event occurred in the same region 99 years before. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2001: An Amelia County, VA man was struck and injured by lightning in his home after lightning hit a porch railing and jumped to the door he had been holding. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)  Overnight rains up to 8.4 inches in Sussex County, Delaware led to failure of a dam on Hearns Pond during the early morning. Historic Hearns and Rawlings Mills were heavily damaged, along with roads and buildings, with damage at $1.1 million dollars.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


2004: Hurricane Charley was the third named storm and the second hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season. Charley lasted from August 9 to August 15, and at its peak intensity, it attained 150 mph winds, making it a strong Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. It made landfall in southwestern Florida at maximum strength, making it the most powerful hurricane to hit the United States since Hurricane Andrew struck Florida in 1992.

 

2004: Bonnie made landfall as a 45 mph (72 km/h) tropical storm just south of Apalachicola, Florida on August 12. It accelerated northeastward, and became a remnant area of low pressure on August 14 to the southeast of New Jersey.

2005 - A tornado strikes Wright, Wyoming, a coal-mining community, killing two and destroying 91 homes and damaging about 30 more in around the town.

 

[Sundog]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, we can get the Erin recurve west of Bermuda next week so the WAR gets weakened enough. Big shift to cooler on the EPS for the 18-25. Now the models have a trough along the East Coast instead of a ridge. 

Longer range will continue to be about the tropics. If we keep getting troughs in the East and tropical systems moving into the weakness, then maybe we can avoid 95+ heat after August 20th.

But if the tropical moisture remains east, then the drought conditions will continue expanding. It’s already been the driest summer on record for spots like BDR. 

The tropics will continue to be the wild card into September. Since a continuing dry pattern and any lack of tropical systems and Eastern  trough would allow the ridge to expand again. 

So the pattern could be mid-August warmth…late August closer to average…early September rebound in temperatures if we stay dry. But enhanced tropical activity in early September could push back against the heat by lowering heights over the Western Atlantic.

Cooler trends for August 18-25

New runs

Old runs

 

 

Eastern North America is night and day