August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, steve392 said:

Watch your language!  Disgusting!  

100/55 sounds pretty good though lol

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Warmer than areas to the east like Long Island which get regular cooling sea breezes. A few NJ COOP sites have been warmer recently. Harrison has been pretty close. NJ just happens to be a very warm area away from the sea breeze. 

 

Data for June 21, 2025 through July 31, 2025 Average Maximum Temperarure
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SEABROOK FARMS	COOP	92.8
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	92.6
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	91.5
Newark Area	ThreadEx	91.5
HARRISON	COOP	91.0
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	90.7
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT	WBAN	90.6
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	90.5
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	90.2
BELVIDERE BRIDGE	COOP	90.0
Belvidere Area	ThreadEx	90.0

 

map

Data for June 21, 2025 through July 31, 2025 Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	103
HARRISON	COOP	103
Newark Area	ThreadEx	103
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT	WBAN	103
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	102
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	102
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	102
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	101
LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST	COOP	101
CANOE BROOK	COOP	101
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	101
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	101
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	101
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	101
SEABROOK FARMS	COOP	100
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	100
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	100
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	100
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	100
PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO	COOP	100
SALEM	COOP	100
EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY	RAWS	100
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	100

 

The reason I single out EWR though is because its number of 90 degree days always seem to be much more in line with PHL than they are with NYC even going back to the early 90s.

Their summers are very Philly like.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 91
TEB: 91
LGA: 90
ISP: 89
New Brnswck: 89
NYC: 89
PHL: 88
TTN: 87
BLM: 86
JFK: 85 * missing intre hour highs 1400 - 1900
ACY: 83

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

90

 

Heatwave #6 hopes stay alive

That's not a heatwave in our 2025 CC era, that's called normal. 

95+ for 3 days should be the new criteria 

[Sundog]

The 18z GFS has a recurver off the coast next Friday, but with some high clouds and NE or easterly winds, it gets us to near 90 degrees?

That's BS

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and even lower 90s across the region. Far more impressive heat covered upstate New York, northern New England, southern Quebec, and New Brunswick. Near record to record highs were commonplace. Highs included:

Bangor: 96°
Buffalo: 91°
Burlington: 96°
Caribou: 94° (old record: 92°, 2020)
Concord: 97°
Manchester: 96°
Plattsburgh: 91° (tied record set in 1970)
Saranac Lake: 90°

Miramichi, NB hit 99°. That is its second highest temperature on record. Montreal also topped out at 94°.

Tomorrow through Thursday will be hot days across the region. Temperatures could top out in the lower and middle 90s in the hot spots. 

Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend.

The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -10.80 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.449 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[Cfa]

High of 93 here, same as yesterday.

Very dry summer here, that July 31st event being the only exception.

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and even lower 90s across the region. Far more impressive heat covered upstate New York, northern New England, southern Quebec, and New Brunswick. Near record to record highs were commonplace. Highs included:

Bangor: 96°
Buffalo: 91°
Burlington: 96°
Caribou: 94° (old record: 92°, 2020)
Concord: 97°
Manchester: 96°
Plattsburgh: 91° (tied record set in 1970)
Saranac Lake: 90°

Miramichi, NB hit 99°. That is its second highest temperature on record. Montreal also topped out at 94°.

Tomorrow through Thursday will be hot days across the region. Temperatures could top out in the lower and middle 90s in the hot spots. 

Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend.

The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -10.80 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.449 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Some very impressive highs across the "Empire State" including 96 at Dansville, 95 at Massena, 95 at Ogdensburg, 94 at Fort Drum, 93 at Fulton and Syracuse. The Miramichi, NB reading was 37.6C BTW, or 99.68F (basically 100F if you use typical American temperature rounding)!