July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[lee59]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

NO2 car pollution is much worse today and thats why we have much higher asthma rates now.

it got lower during the pandemic.

People need to stop driving cars.

How about the days when people burned their leaves. Now that created some smokey conditions.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's there right now, but the question is whether it will hold, as the lowest temperature will occur near 1 am EDT. 

It probably won't fall below the 80s until close to tomorrow morning?

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

NO2 car pollution is much worse today and thats why we have much higher asthma rates now.

it got lower during the pandemic.

People need to stop driving cars.

We are way down on NO2 pollution compared to the 90s and before.

Cars are a million times cleaner now. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Sun has popped back out here and the temperature has gone up to 88, did not expect this warmth.

yes the sun is coming back out again it's not that different from yesterday lol

what happened to that front?

[winterwarlock]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

already got to 93 here with overcast skies lol

92 now..still decent sun

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

How about the days when people burned their leaves. Now that created some smokey conditions.

they still do that omg it smells like charcoal.

at least when I've seen it done in the Poconos it happened in Fall and it made me feel warmer during the cold days lol

[LibertyBell]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

92 now..still decent sun

the sun coming back out now let's see if we can make a run at 95, it would be my fourth consecutive 95+ day, I don't remember the last time that happened here lol

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

We are way down on NO2 pollution compared to the 90s and before.

Cars are a million times cleaner now. 

The problem is there are still diesel trucks around.  Air pollution shortens life by about 2.5 years even more than tobacco smoking does.  There are asthma hot spots in northern Queens and in the Bronx in the highest trafficked areas.

Do you know Cancer Alley in Louisiana?

They have another one in Oakland.

[psv88]

89/76/101. Horrific out there 

[lee59]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

they still do that omg it smells like charcoal.

at least when I've seen it done in the Poconos it happened in Fall and it made me feel warmer during the cold days lol

Yea I remember it in the fall. 

[lee59]

Wind now out of the NE here, clouds back.

[nycwinter]

worst july in a long time even though we got a few breaks the relentless heat and humidity was unbearable..

[Sundog]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The problem is there are still diesel trucks around.  Air pollution shortens life by about 2.5 years even more than tobacco smoking does.  There are asthma hot spots in northern Queens and in the Bronx in the highest trafficked areas.

Do you know Cancer Alley in Louisiana?

They have another one in Oakland.

There are a few localized spots that still suck but they are way down from what they used to be and even the spots that still suck are better than what they were. 

Overall NO2 in the atmosphere is way down. And we were talking about rural spots anyway, not the Cross Bronx haha

[jm1220]

Dewpoints at or near 80 in Long Beach. For sure whatever storms we get will have tons of moisture. 

[SACRUS]

52 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I want that for my whole season

 

7 shy of 2010 and 4 from 1993

[IrishRob17]

What a difference up here from yesterday, currently 66/63 and breezy as more rain moves in, I have to admit there is an early fall feel out there for now. 

[TheClimateChanger]

57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont think you could grow crops here with lows in the 30s, maybe that was a mountaintop thing?

 

I don't think one night in the upper 30s would do much harm to corn/maize. Obviously, if it was consistently cold (and/or moist) that would affect growth. Consistently warm overnight temperatures are a bigger concern because the plant can respire through the night and burn stored energy faster than it can be replenished. Corn is native to higher latitudes in Mexico. It does best with overnight lows from in the 50s/low 60s.

[Picard]

51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

if that even happened an argument can be made for global warming being a good thing to keep that kind of cold weather away and increase and lengthen the growing season.

 

I'm OK with a couple of degrees.  Things could adapt, and there are indeed benefits for some.  Beyond that though, I think it introduces more problems, some of which are already unfolding like melting glaciers, rising seas, and a positive feedback loop that keeps it all going.  
Regarding your comment on stopping driving cars - not going to happen.  I am waiting for a day when I could buy a relatively inexpensive independently duel powered vehicle, and I'm in.  In other words, the gasoline engine is ready to fire up if I run out of battery.  And eventually, I think, among other problems, we're going to be running into problems of sourcing EV batteries, and disposal of spent batteries.

Cars by themselves are only part of the issue.  It's also the sheer demand of goods and services in this country, as well as our throw away culture.  By a TV, don't like it in a year, or want a better one, or some minor glitch prevents it from working properly?  No problem, just toss it and by a new one.

[RedSky]

52 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The problem is there are still diesel trucks around.  Air pollution shortens life by about 2.5 years even more than tobacco smoking does.  There are asthma hot spots in northern Queens and in the Bronx in the highest trafficked areas.

Do you know Cancer Alley in Louisiana?

They have another one in Oakland.

Eh tobacco smoking takes 5-10 years and often decades off peoples life

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Back then we probably had a lot of volcanic eruptions and nuclear fall out emissions.

It's not part of our climate to get that cold here in July.

 

I would say it is. I asked xAI's Grok to estimate what the climate of New York City would have looked like at the height of the last glacial maximum. I think most here would agree that this is MILES better than the current climate.

Month	Estimated Mean Temperature (°C)	Estimated Mean Temperature (°F)
January	-15 to -10°C	5 to 14°F
February	-14 to -9°C	7 to 16°F
March	-10 to -5°C	14 to 23°F
April	-3 to 2°C	27 to 36°F
May	3 to 8°C	37 to 46°F
June	10 to 15°C	50 to 59°F
July	12 to 17°C	54 to 63°F
August	10 to 15°C	50 to 59°F
September	5 to 10°C	41 to 50°F
October	0 to 5°C	32 to 41°F
November	-5 to 0°C	23 to 32°F
December	-12 to -7°C	10 to 19°F

• Winter (Dec–Feb): Very cold, with means likely between -15°C and -7°C (5–19°F), similar to modern subarctic or high-latitude tundra climates. Frequent snow was probable, but low precipitation meant less accumulation than in modern snowy regions like upstate New York.
• Summer (Jun–Aug): Short and cool, with July means likely 12–17°C (54–63°F), resembling modern high-latitude coastal areas (e.g., parts of Iceland or northern Canada). Proximity to the ice sheet and cold Atlantic Ocean currents kept summers chilly.
• Precipitation and Snow: The climate was drier than today due to cold air holding less moisture. Snow was common in winter, but total accumulation was likely moderate, with a tundra-like landscape. Permafrost was widespread, affecting soil and vegetation.
• Ice Sheet Influence: The Laurentide Ice Sheet, terminating near Long Island, would have cooled NYC via cold air drainage and albedo effects. Cold ocean currents along the Atlantic coast further suppressed temperatures.
• Variability: Daily and annual variability was likely high, with cold snaps in winter and occasional warm days in summer. Strong winds from the ice sheet (katabatic winds) could have made conditions feel even colder.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

This is an interesting map. Number of 90+ days since June 1. All the long-term climate stations along the I-95 are in the top 10, except for NYC, which is tied for 44th. Things that make you go hmmm...

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont think you could grow crops here with lows in the 30s, maybe that was a mountaintop thing?

 

Dipping into the upper 30s periodically back then in July probably wasn’t that much of an issue for the growing season. But August lowest temperatures in the 30s at the Charolotteburg Reservior were a much more common occurrence.

They haven’t dropped below 50° in August since 2017. Their last 30s in August was in 1986. Their earliest first freeze was on 8-25-40. 9-7-84 was their last freeze during the first week of September. So rural NJ used to have a much shorter growing season than it has now. 

The average first freeze was September 26th from 1895 to 1910. From 2010 to 2024 the average first freeze is on October 22nd. 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Dipping into the upper 30s periodically back then in July probably wasn’t that much of an issue for the growing season. But August lowest temperatures in the 30s at the Charolotteburg Reservior were a much more common occurrence.

They haven’t dropped below 50° in August since 2017. Their last 30s in August was in 1986. Their earliest first freeze was on 8-25-40. 9-7-84 was their last freeze during the first week of September. So rural NJ used to have a much shorter growing season than it has now. 

The average first freeze was September 26th from 1895 to 1910. From 2010 to 2024 the average first freeze is on October 22nd. 

 

 

This is probably a good thing for the growing season to be longer?

I remember August 1986 that was my first Perseid meteor shower and it was a crystal clear sky with no haze temperatures near 50, felt like early fall.

That first time had the best viewing conditions of any time I've seen it since (outside of the times I've seen them in the Poconos away from light pollution.)

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This is an interesting map. Number of 90+ days since June 1. All the long-term climate stations along the I-95 are in the top 10, except for NYC, which is tied for 44th. Things that make you go hmmm...

this is our best summer since 2010-2011

the ones after 2013 were all mediocre

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I would say it is. I asked xAI's Grok to estimate what the climate of New York City would have looked like at the height of the last glacial maximum. I think most here would agree that this is MILES better than the current climate.

 

Month	Estimated Mean Temperature (°C)	Estimated Mean Temperature (°F)
January	-15 to -10°C	5 to 14°F
February	-14 to -9°C	7 to 16°F
March	-10 to -5°C	14 to 23°F
April	-3 to 2°C	27 to 36°F
May	3 to 8°C	37 to 46°F
June	10 to 15°C	50 to 59°F
July	12 to 17°C	54 to 63°F
August	10 to 15°C	50 to 59°F
September	5 to 10°C	41 to 50°F
October	0 to 5°C	32 to 41°F
November	-5 to 0°C	23 to 32°F
December	-12 to -7°C	10 to 19°F

 

• Winter (Dec–Feb): Very cold, with means likely between -15°C and -7°C (5–19°F), similar to modern subarctic or high-latitude tundra climates. Frequent snow was probable, but low precipitation meant less accumulation than in modern snowy regions like upstate New York.
• Summer (Jun–Aug): Short and cool, with July means likely 12–17°C (54–63°F), resembling modern high-latitude coastal areas (e.g., parts of Iceland or northern Canada). Proximity to the ice sheet and cold Atlantic Ocean currents kept summers chilly.
• Precipitation and Snow: The climate was drier than today due to cold air holding less moisture. Snow was common in winter, but total accumulation was likely moderate, with a tundra-like landscape. Permafrost was widespread, affecting soil and vegetation.
• Ice Sheet Influence: The Laurentide Ice Sheet, terminating near Long Island, would have cooled NYC via cold air drainage and albedo effects. Cold ocean currents along the Atlantic coast further suppressed temperatures.
• Variability: Daily and annual variability was likely high, with cold snaps in winter and occasional warm days in summer. Strong winds from the ice sheet (katabatic winds) could have made conditions feel even colder.

 

The question is, do we actually want that kind of climate? I would say no, because it would be horrible for the growing season.

The ideal climate is a nice compact winter with lots of snow in January and February, around 3 to 5 feet of snow and then a nice dry hot summer with 30 90 degree days 10 95 degree days and 3 100 degree days.  I know I'm being very specific .... because my favorite season was the period from 2009-10 to 2010-11 for both winter and summer.

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is probably a good thing for the growing season to be longer?

I remember August 1986 that was my first Perseid meteor shower and it was a crystal clear sky with no haze temperatures near 50, felt like early fall.

That first time had the best viewing conditions of any time I've seen it since (outside of the times I've seen them in the Poconos away from light pollution.)

 

The main issue for those areas in NJ with the steadily warming minimums has been insect damage.

https://www.njweather.org/content/seasonal-trends-extreme-minimum-temperatures-six-new-jersey-locations

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

The main issue for those areas in NJ with the steadily warming minimums has been insect damage.

https://www.njweather.org/content/seasonal-trends-extreme-minimum-temperatures-six-new-jersey-locations

 

 

and this is why we are seeing the spraying of so many pesticides

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I would say it is. I asked xAI's Grok to estimate what the climate of New York City would have looked like at the height of the last glacial maximum. I think most here would agree that this is MILES better than the current climate.

 

Month	Estimated Mean Temperature (°C)	Estimated Mean Temperature (°F)
January	-15 to -10°C	5 to 14°F
February	-14 to -9°C	7 to 16°F
March	-10 to -5°C	14 to 23°F
April	-3 to 2°C	27 to 36°F
May	3 to 8°C	37 to 46°F
June	10 to 15°C	50 to 59°F
July	12 to 17°C	54 to 63°F
August	10 to 15°C	50 to 59°F
September	5 to 10°C	41 to 50°F
October	0 to 5°C	32 to 41°F
November	-5 to 0°C	23 to 32°F
December	-12 to -7°C	10 to 19°F

 

• Winter (Dec–Feb): Very cold, with means likely between -15°C and -7°C (5–19°F), similar to modern subarctic or high-latitude tundra climates. Frequent snow was probable, but low precipitation meant less accumulation than in modern snowy regions like upstate New York.
• Summer (Jun–Aug): Short and cool, with July means likely 12–17°C (54–63°F), resembling modern high-latitude coastal areas (e.g., parts of Iceland or northern Canada). Proximity to the ice sheet and cold Atlantic Ocean currents kept summers chilly.
• Precipitation and Snow: The climate was drier than today due to cold air holding less moisture. Snow was common in winter, but total accumulation was likely moderate, with a tundra-like landscape. Permafrost was widespread, affecting soil and vegetation.
• Ice Sheet Influence: The Laurentide Ice Sheet, terminating near Long Island, would have cooled NYC via cold air drainage and albedo effects. Cold ocean currents along the Atlantic coast further suppressed temperatures.
• Variability: Daily and annual variability was likely high, with cold snaps in winter and occasional warm days in summer. Strong winds from the ice sheet (katabatic winds) could have made conditions feel even colder.

 

this sounds like 1976-77 lol

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Eh tobacco smoking takes 5-10 years and often decades off peoples life

 

it's the average over the entire planet, so taking that into account, people have the choice not to smoke (and very few do anymore) while people don't really have a choice when it comes to air pollution-- it affects minority communities even more because thats where the polluting factories and diesel trucks usually are.

I saw an estimate for Oakland that stated that air pollution has shortened life expectancy there by 8 years, 2.5 years was the planetary average-- so it's much worse in some communities than it is in others.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Picard said:

I'm OK with a couple of degrees.  Things could adapt, and there are indeed benefits for some.  Beyond that though, I think it introduces more problems, some of which are already unfolding like melting glaciers, rising seas, and a positive feedback loop that keeps it all going.  
Regarding your comment on stopping driving cars - not going to happen.  I am waiting for a day when I could buy a relatively inexpensive independently duel powered vehicle, and I'm in.  In other words, the gasoline engine is ready to fire up if I run out of battery.  And eventually, I think, among other problems, we're going to be running into problems of sourcing EV batteries, and disposal of spent batteries.

Cars by themselves are only part of the issue.  It's also the sheer demand of goods and services in this country, as well as our throw away culture.  By a TV, don't like it in a year, or want a better one, or some minor glitch prevents it from working properly?  No problem, just toss it and by a new one.

Duel powered vehicles are better in that they don't impact the grid or the climate much, you really have the best of both worlds.

We do have an awful consumerist philosophy, eventually we're going to have to retire diesel trucks that ship our goods from coast to coast and replace them with electric trucks.