July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Cancel my several days back post of mostly lower 90s the rest of the way with it now looking like this Wednesday in NYC could end up between 95-100.

WX/PT

Always go warmer than you expect in today's climate. Ridges will verify stronger 9 out of 10 times

[forkyfork]

46 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Summer sucks. 

All we get now is wildfire smoke, dewpoints of 90, or rain. 

Can we get on the geoengineering already. What can possibly go wrong that's not already fccked up

this is better than the 50s and cloudy we get all winter

[Stormlover74]

Interesting that Mt holly isn't going with any heat advisories or warnings 

[forkyfork]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Interesting that Mt holly isn't going with any heat advisories or warnings 

the afd says they're waiting to see how dewpoints look in the morning

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Interesting that Mt holly isn't going with any heat advisories or warnings 

I think it could be just noise but the GFS backed off the extreme heat a little at 00Z. NAM would suggest it's still on for Wednesday.

WX/PT

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

thanks Chris and no sea breeze until after 4 pm each day?

The 0z Euro has the strongest offshore flow on Tuesday with 100° potential to JFK and Suffolk with compressional warming just north of the sea breeze front stalled near the beaches to Sunrise Highway.

 

[winterwarlock]

It was just last week where peeps were saying big heat was done for the year

[wdrag]

No thread from me on Tue-Fri til the last minute (Tue morning?).  GFS MOS seems a little cool on the maxes Tue and Wed and too low on chance of rain Thu, maybe Fri too.  

GEFS coming up on qpf now...  all ensembles under 2.5" but the EC OP Max #'s are interesting the past two cycles (isolated over 7" location-location?)

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

It was just last week where peeps were saying big heat was done for the year

Despite a cool start, August will likely be warmer than normal overall. There will be additional opportunities for 90+ heat especially after the 10th.

[winterwarlock]

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ010&warncounty=NJC035&firewxzone=NJZ010&local_place1=Belle Mead NJ&product1=Heat+Advisory&lat=40.465&lon=-74.6456

 

There is a heat advisory thru 8pm Wednesday 

[bluewave]

Another longer range modeling under estimation of the Southeast Ridge which has been a frequent occurrence last decade.