July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[donsutherland1]

A few parts of the region could see a shower or thundershower this evening or overnight.

Tomorrow will be steamy with highs in the middle and perhaps upper 80s. A few of the hot spots could reach 90°. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow evening into Monday morning as a cold front moves across the region. 

Behind the front, it will turn somewhat cooler and much less humid through the middle of next week. Monday through Wednesday should feature bright sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday morning should be in the 60s in New York City. Some outlying areas could see lows fall into the upper 50s on Tuesday morning.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. However, some of the guidance continues to show a brief surge of high heat late next week. The last three cycles of the ECMWF and EPS are particularly bullish with the potential heat.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +14.40 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.452 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal). 

 

[steve392]

58 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's ugly here too...but worth it for the comfort....I run around chasing people to turn off lights every little bit helps

Im hoping this coming months bill will be better.  Our old window a/c was struggling till we replaced it with a new one.  

[steve392]

Had a quick shower driving home from work in Franklin lakes.  

[Wannabehippie]

15 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Had a quick shower driving home from work in Franklin lakes.  

Brief spritz here in Riverdale, NJ. 
This AM was gorgeous. Spent time by the pool for a couple of hours. Was hoping to get more time this afternoon, but the weather did not cooperate. Tomorrow will be poolside for sure.

 

[winterwarlock]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

It's ugly here too...but worth it for the comfort....I run around chasing people to turn off lights every little bit helps

my bill wasnt bad at all...ive been keep it at 78 lately