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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability


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The best beach days continue to be during the week. The next 95°-100° warm up looks like it will be Thursday and Friday with more rain chances again next weekend. But the one good thing is that there have been very few weekend washouts. 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The best beach days continue to be during the week. The next 95°-100° warm up looks like it will be Thursday and Friday with more rain chances again next weekend. But the one good thing is that there have been very few weekend washouts. 

 

 

The NYSWRCC chart is not current. New York City (Central Park) had no rain during the weekend of July 5-6. It's longest such streak on record where there was at least a trace of rain on one of the weekend days was 12 consecutive weeks (June 22-23, 1895 through September 7-8, 1895). Each weekend saw at least one day with measurable rainfall.

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24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The NYSWRCC chart is not current. New York City (Central Park) had no rain during the weekend of July 5-6. It's longest such streak on record where there was at least a trace of rain on one of the weekend days was 12 consecutive weeks (June 22-23, 1895 through September 7-8, 1895). Each weekend saw at least one day with measurable rainfall.

I posted it for the general continuing theme of at least some stations experiencing measurable rainfall on the weekends. They haven’t done an official update yet so that is their most recent chart showing the long term pattern in general across the region. If the smaller local was included, then  it would show the continuation. A few spots picked some measurable rainfall that weekend along with more last weekend. But the amounts were very light indicating no washout. 
 

Data for July 5, 2025 through July 6, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.03
NJ MAHWAH TWP 2.5 NE CoCoRaHS 0.01
NJ VERONA TWP 0.8 W CoCoRaHS T
NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN T


 

Data for July 12, 2025 through July 13, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.06
CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.06
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0.04
CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 0.04
CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 0.04
CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.03
NY AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.03
CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.03
CT WATERFORD 1.1 E CoCoRaHS 0.03
CT WATERFORD 2.3 S CoCoRaHS 0.03
CT OLD LYME 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.03
NY COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.03
NY LINDENHURST 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 0.03
NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 0.03
NY THORNWOOD 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 0.03
NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY BLUE POINT 0.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 0.02
NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.02
CT WATERBURY 1.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.02
CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 0.02
CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.02
CT RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 0.02
CT COLCHESTER 5.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT GUILFORD COOP 0.01
CT NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY SAYVILLE CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0.01
NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY GARRISON 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 0.01
NJ MAHWAH TWP 2.5 NE CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT PROSPECT 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 0.01
CT CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT MYSTIC 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 0.01
NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY SYOSSET COOP 0.01
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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I posted it for the general continuing theme of at least some stations experiencing measurable rainfall on the weekends. They haven’t done an official update yet so that is their most recent chart showing the long term pattern in general across the region. If the smaller local was included, then  it would show the continuation. A few spots picked some measurable rainfall that weekend along with more last weekend. But the amounts were very light indicating no washout. 
 

Data for July 5, 2025 through July 6, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.03
NJ MAHWAH TWP 2.5 NE CoCoRaHS 0.01
NJ VERONA TWP 0.8 W CoCoRaHS T
NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN T


 

Data for July 12, 2025 through July 13, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.06
CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.06
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0.04
CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 0.04
CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 0.04
CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.03
NY AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.03
CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.03
CT WATERFORD 1.1 E CoCoRaHS 0.03
CT WATERFORD 2.3 S CoCoRaHS 0.03
CT OLD LYME 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.03
NY COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.03
NY LINDENHURST 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 0.03
NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 0.03
NY THORNWOOD 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 0.03
NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY BLUE POINT 0.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 0.02
NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.02
CT WATERBURY 1.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.02
CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.02
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 0.02
CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.02
CT RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 0.02
CT COLCHESTER 5.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT GUILFORD COOP 0.01
CT NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY SAYVILLE CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0.01
NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY GARRISON 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 0.01
NJ MAHWAH TWP 2.5 NE CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT PROSPECT 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 0.01
CT CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT MYSTIC 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 0.01
CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 0.01
NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 0.01
NY SYOSSET COOP 0.01

I agree with you. I saw the time stamp of June 5 on the chart and checked the NYC data since then.

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8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Secondary heat peak latter next week looks likely. If models continue to ramp up the ridging then more 100+ isn't out of the question 

Late July heat dome, 95+ every day, lows in the upper 70s across the city.

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A few parts of the region could see a shower or thundershower this evening or overnight.

Tomorrow will be steamy with highs in the middle and perhaps upper 80s. A few of the hot spots could reach 90°. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow evening into Monday morning as a cold front moves across the region. 

Behind the front, it will turn somewhat cooler and much less humid through the middle of next week. Monday through Wednesday should feature bright sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday morning should be in the 60s in New York City. Some outlying areas could see lows fall into the upper 50s on Tuesday morning.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. However, some of the guidance continues to show a brief surge of high heat late next week. The last three cycles of the ECMWF and EPS are particularly bullish with the potential heat.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +14.40 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.452 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal). 

 

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58 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's ugly here too...but worth it for the comfort....I run around chasing people to turn off lights every little bit helps

Im hoping this coming months bill will be better.  Our old window a/c was struggling till we replaced it with a new one.  

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15 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Had a quick shower driving home from work in Franklin lakes.  

Brief spritz here in Riverdale, NJ. 
This AM was gorgeous. Spent time by the pool for a couple of hours. Was hoping to get more time this afternoon, but the weather did not cooperate. Tomorrow will be poolside for sure.

 

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