July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:
 

 

EWR: 96
TEB: 95
PHL: 95  \\\
ACY: 94
LGA: 93
BLM: 93
New Brnswck: 92
JFK: 92  * 3rd day no intra hour highs 2pm / 8pm (likely went higher)
TTN: 91
ISP: 90
NYC: 90

Maybe JFK hit 93 like I did today.

[SACRUS]

 

Anyone have JFK 6 hour max/min

 

My source https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KJFK.html  is missing them the last few days and had similar gaps the last few years.

 

Odd they cant just add the max each hour 2025.

[LibertyBell]

On 7/16/2025 at 12:14 AM, Big Jims Videos said:

No, that would cause upwelling.  Onshore from east, northeast, or light southeast will also sustain warmth.  Strong west or strong southeast will upwell like I mentioned happened last summer. 

it would be interesting to see what summers had our highest SST and in which month they occurred.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/15/2025 at 11:22 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You’re favorite days, the days when the south shore shoots well over 100 on a strong offshore flow often see brutally cold water temps. Near shore water temps were in the low 60s on the hottest day of the June heatwave with tons of upwelling. Super shock from the system to go from 100+ on the sand to water that chilly. 
The Gulf Stream is too far offshore to have any real effect on our waters. It follows the end of the continental shelf. Occasionally an eddy will spin off that gets relatively close. 
As far as effects on tropical activity, our exposure to a major is increasing. We have always been able to support a major up to the latitude of the Gulf Stream but then had a nice buffer to weaken storms that weren’t rocketing north like 38. Out waters still technically can’t support a major (allot of it is depth related) but the weaking effects of water around 26c aren’t that pronounced. 

Thanks, it would be interesting to see how quickly the ocean recovers from upwelling from these triple digit heatwaves.  It seems to have done so relatively quickly this year.  I wonder what the peak SST were in a summer like 2010 that was dry and hot most of the summer.  2011 peak heat was higher than 2010 but we switched to a wetter pattern in August with more onshore flow so maybe the SST were warmer in 2011 than they were in 2010?

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/15/2025 at 9:17 PM, Monty said:

No. Ocean temps at our latitude are more a function of currents, mixing, and stagnation that air heat. 

Thanks, I wonder if a marine heatwave like what's happening east of Japan are possible here, because we're both on the western edge of a large ocean.

 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Anyone have JFK 6 hour max/min

 

My source https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KJFK.html  is missing them the last few days and had similar gaps the last few years.

 

Odd they cant just add the max each hour 2025.

I was informed that there are I.T. issues. They are being worked on.

[LibertyBell]

On 7/15/2025 at 8:28 PM, Brian5671 said:

Nope-the west winds push the warm water OTS and cooler water upwells from below....

It would be interesting to see how long it takes the ocean to recover from a bout of westerly winds.  It probably recovers more quickly later in the season, so if we have 100 degree heat in the latter third of July, the SST would rise more quickly once it ended?

 

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it would be interesting to see what summers had our highest SST and in which month they occurred.

 

 

2022 from my recollection    https://www.fox29.com/news/atlantic-ocean-sets-records-for-warmth-down-at-the-jersey-shore?utm_source=chatgpt.com and 2016  https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/jersey-shore-ocean-record-warm/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[Sundog]

Still 89/74 where I am and it feels like crap out. 

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I was informed that there are I.T. issues. They are being worked on.

amazing they cant measure between hours - seems rudimentary.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2022 from my recollection    https://www.fox29.com/news/atlantic-ocean-sets-records-for-warmth-down-at-the-jersey-shore?utm_source=chatgpt.com and 2016  https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/jersey-shore-ocean-record-warm/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Excellent article Tony!  Reading this makes me think we need both very hot westerly winds AND onshore flow.  First the very hot westerly winds for several days to create a long heatwave even though the offshore flow causes upwelling here it heats up the ocean further offshore.  And then an onshore flow to bring that heated ocean surface closer to shore?

 

It's so warm, it set a record in Atlantic City, where the water temperature soared to the mid-80s on Thursday and early Friday. This weekend, your Weather Authority says to plan for ocean water in the upper 70s.

The water is much, much warmer for a few reasons.

South and east of our shores, the Atlantic Ocean has been much warmer than average for a while.

 

Usually, 80-degree ocean water stops around the Outer Banks in North Carolina. But lately, it has extended much farther north.

But our shores have not been able to tap into that warm water because of our air flow. Winds have been coming down from the north or blowing along the coastline a lot this summer. That airflow pushes the top layer of sun-warmed ocean water away from our beaches. When it's pushed away, colder non sun-warmed water comes up to take its place. 

 

If you want to learn more, that process is called upwelling, and that's what kept the ocean water chilly this summer in the 60s.

Even though there were a few days in July and early August when the water soared into the 70s, it didn't last. Well, that is, until mid-August.

The 10-day stretch of 90s earlier this month led to water warming up at deeper depths. Then, this week, ocean currents brought that 80-degree water even closer to our shores.

What got the 80s here were the airflow winds that started coming up from the south. This created an on-shore airflow that helped push that pool of 80-degree water right to our shores.

That super warm water is also pretty warm deep below its surface. So, as the warmest top water gets pushed toward us, warm water comes up to take its place. This is what will keep our ocean water nice and warm in the 70s this weekend.

Highs in the 90s are also helping. In and around Philly will stay in the 90s through Wednesday. Down the shore, we're in the mid 80s this weekend says your Weather Authority.

Late next week, our air flow will shift again, which will start pushing away some of that warmer water. Expect water temperatures in the lower 70s next weekend.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

amazing they cant measure between hours - seems rudimentary.

There is a way to do it, simply look at the thermometer and jot down the temperature.  I did this during the summer of 1993 almost every day during that big 10 day heatwave lol.

 

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

There is a way to do it, simply look at the thermometer and jot down the temperature.  I did this during the summer of 1993 almost every day during that big 10 day heatwave lol.

 

 

Could have some of those 89 degree days miss an intra hour 90 or higher and vice versa in the winter at a important/critical station.  They should make the station dynamic and update in real time like the New Brunswick station.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2022 from my recollection    https://www.fox29.com/news/atlantic-ocean-sets-records-for-warmth-down-at-the-jersey-shore?utm_source=chatgpt.com and 2016  https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/jersey-shore-ocean-record-warm/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Looks like July 2011 was also very hot-- it seems like the hottest SST happen in months that have extended extreme heatwaves with westerly flow followed by onshore flow that brings the heated waters that are offshore because of that westerly flow back closer to the beaches when the onshore flow kicks in.

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. (CBS) - The ocean water temperature this week is in the record books.

Wednesday's 83-degree measurement at the Atlantic City Marina (the National Weather Service puts the exact temperature at 83.3 degrees) broke the warmest-ever mark of 83.1 degrees, set in July 2011.

You don't even have to dip a toe in the water to feel its heat:

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Could have some of those 89 degree days miss an intra hour 90 or higher and vice versa in the winter at a important/critical station.  They should make the station dynamic and update in real time like the New Brunswick station.

Yes it shouldn't be that hard to do, many of the personal weather stations on wunderground update every 5-10 seconds.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml?lat=40.029360&lon=-73.805139&zoom=7&type=oceans&status=r&pgm=&op=&ls=n

[psv88]

41 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Still 89/74 where I am and it feels like crap out. 

Still 87/74. Insane for Suffolk county this late 

[WestBabylonWeather]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Still 87/74. Insane for Suffolk county this late 

87/76 real feel 98 right now after 9pm lol 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The ridiculous dews are slowing the temp drop. Welcome to the jungle!

[lee59]

89 degrees after a late afternoon high of 92. This is one of the warmest nights I have seen in this area. Only the strong breeze makes it tolerable.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The ridiculous dews are slowing the temp drop. Welcome to the jungle!

I have two spiders trying to steal the mail right out of my mailbox.

I hate big bug weather

[psv88]

28 minutes ago, lee59 said:

89 degrees after a late afternoon high of 92. This is one of the warmest nights I have seen in this area. Only the strong breeze makes it tolerable.

I’ve never seen this before. It’s warmer on Long Island than anywhere in Florida or the Deep South states 

[TWCCraig]

Still 87, but my dew point is down to 75 from the upper 70s earlier.

Long Island doesn't cool down on a westerly wind, thats why temps havent dropped, and gone up in some spots like here

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, TWCCraig said:

Still 87, but my dew point is down to 75 from the upper 70s earlier.

Long Island doesn't cool down on a westerly wind

it wasnt actually very hot today, it's just that it's not cooling down like it usually does in the evening-- it's all that damn humidity

[SnoSki14]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

it wasnt actually very hot today, it's just that it's not cooling down like it usually does in the evening-- it's all that damn humidity

Low to mid 90s with mid to upper 70 dews is very hot and uncomfortable 

[TWCCraig]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it wasnt actually very hot today, it's just that it's not cooling down like it usually does in the evening-- it's all that damn humidity

Like I said my dew point dropped, I had a higher dew point this time yesterday but tonight there's a westerly wind here so my temp shot up

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Low to mid 90s with mid to upper 70 dews is very hot and uncomfortable 

it's absolutely horrendous but not in the top 3 hottest days of the summer.  That day last week was worse.  This morning up until early afternoon (around 1 PM) it wasn't bad.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Like I said my dew point dropped, I had a higher dew point this time yesterday but tonight there's a westerly wind here now so my temp shot up

it got uncomfortable starting around 2-- I actually thought we might not hit 90 with all the dark overcast around all morning and even early this afternoon.

[jm1220]

10pm and still 90 at JFK, 99 heat index. Downslope W flow and still humid. Tomorrow can't come fast enough.

[Intensewind002]

88/73 still as of 10:30 pm here in Lindenhurst