July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Tree ring studies suggest that the 1960s were rated as a 500 year drought. Something that hasn’t been able to repeat in this much warmer climate with increased moisture. So we have been spared peak highs in the 110° to 115° range which would occur here with the much warmer climate of today and 1960s drought and westerly flow. 

https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/glodech/PDFs/Pederson_etal_NYCdrought_revised.pdf

It might have been more than just the 1960s though as it seems the 1940s, 1950s and 1970s were also quite dry, Chris. So what California has been experiencing over the past decade is what we experienced back then? That's what I mean by cycles, that has to flip at some point.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Also for history buffs the severe 1901 and 1911 heat waves were nearing peak intensity. They were both comparable to 1966 in regional impacts. 1901 set records in the brief NYC data to that time for four days including June 30 to July 2, and still holds the last two (sharing today with 1966). A record 95F on June 30 was tied in 1931, broken in 1945 (97F) and that was again broken in 1964 (99F). The 1911 heat wave was well into the 100s in a lot of places, NYC must have been somewhat reduced by sea breezes because its highest values were near 100F.  Toronto had 103F on July 3, 1911. The NYC data show records set on July 3, 4, 5, 6, 10 and 11, but none survived, broken by 1966, 1919, 1919, 1999, 1936 and 1988. 

Despite the smaller urban heat island, these heat waves had some stifling warm nights. For July 1, 1901 the record set was 78F not surpassed until 79F in 2018. For July 2, 1901 the record set (82F) still stands for the date. In 1911 the minima were all near 77F and were not daily records even then but there was little relief for ten days of heat. 

The 1966 heat wave(s) broke or tied five daily maxima, and did not set any high minima although four readings were 1F lower than existing records, some of which have since been broken. These were all in the high 70s. Even the 1936 heat wave did not set any daily records for high minima but when it only drops to high 70s after mid-100s, that isn't enough time to ventilate scorching interiors without A/C. Further inland the 1936 heat wave was more prolonged and had even worse overnight conditions, Toronto had lows close to 80F during it and had three consecutive 105F readings (July 8 to 10). Even in southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario the 1936 heat wave had readings near 110F and overnight lows above 80F. Of course in North Dakota it was close to 120F in that unprecedented event. Western Canada returned to the same level of heat the next summer but that 1937 heat was somewhat modified when it spread east (even so it hit 100F in NYC). 

what was the peak of the 1901 heat event in NYC Roger?

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, steve392 said:

Sun is clearing out the clouds. Some rain falling while sitting outside.  The sun is scorching hot once it breaks through though... 

too bad no rainbow

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

 

EWR: 91
TEB: 89
New Brnswck: 88
PHL: 87
TTN: 86
NYC: 84
LGA: 84
ACY: 83
BLM: 83 ** missing readings and hourly and intra hour readings max/mins
JFK: 81
ISP: 80

[Roger Smith]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

what was the peak of the 1901 heat event in NYC Roger?

The peak was today, July 2nd still holds record highs on both max and min side (100, 82). The over-90 portion of the 1901 heat wave ran from June 26 to July 3. The highs and lows for those eight days were

June 26 ___ 91 72 _ max was a record tied with three previous years until 1904,1909 tied 93, then 1923 had 94, 1943 and 49 96F, and 1952 100F (96F 1963 warmest since, 93F warmest recent 2003 and 2024.

June 27 ___ 91 74

June 28 __ 93 75

June 29 __ 95 76

June 30 __ 95 60 _ max a record tied in 1931, broken 97F 1945 (eventual 99F 1964)

July 1 __ 100 78 _ max is a record, min was a record until 79F in 2018

July 2 __ 100 82 (.03 in) _ both records today, max shared with 1966

July 3 ___ 94 76 (.31 in) suspect the 94 was early and it dropped during the day

After 84/71 on the 4th, a record 3.07 inches of rain fell on the 5th (86/75) and 1.26 more on the 6th (77/74). It's pretty easy to visualize a stalled front being responsible for the heavy rainfalls. 

Then a second less severe heat wave lasted from July 14 to 24 (86 to 93 max, highest 21st). Several overnight lows were 76 to 78 F in that warm spell. 

A record low max of 69F was observed on July 26 then it warmed back to 92, 93 on July 29-30. Aug and Sep were close to average with a mix of warm and cool spells. 

July 1901 had a mean of 77.7 F and was 4th warmest July 1869-1901 and is now t39 of 157. Factoring in an increasing heat island it ranks 27th. 

[SACRUS]

Dews on the rise

76/71 here up from 66 at 6pm

[Roger Smith]

The 1911 heat looks like this:

July 2 __ 94 75

July 3 __100 77 _ max tied 1898 as record broken by 103F in 1966. ... all mins slightly below records set in 1876 (3rd) and 1908 (4th-6th)

July 4 __ 97 77 _ max set record broken by 99F in 1919 (eventual 102F 1949)

July 5 __ 97 77 _ max set record broken by 98F in 1919 (tied in 1955) (eventual 101F 1999)

July 6 __ 98 77 (0.12") _ max set record tied in 1986 and broken in 1999 (101F) (then 2010 103F)

July 7 __ 86 74 

July 8 __ 81 70 ... looks like front pushed a little south then rebounded

July 9 __ 92 69

July 10__ 99 78 (.02") _ max set record broken by 1936 (tied 1999) of 102F ... min was 1F lower than 1905 record tied 1910 79F, broken by 80F 1993)

July 11__ 97 76 _ max set record broken by 98F in 1988 (97F again in 1993)

July 12__ 90 78 _ min was 1F lower than 1905 record 79F still record today)

July 13 __88 72

_____

It stayed relatively warm all summer without this level of heat, and rainfall picked up steadily through August, 1.52" rain 15th and 1.65" 25th, until record cool daytime values arrived Aug 30 and 31 (highs 62, 59; lows 56, 55) (4.61" rain in 2d)

_____

Heat in 1919 followed rapidly some record cool nights June 29 (52F) and June 30 (53F). It was a hot spell of relatively brief duration. 

July 1 __ 90 60

July 2 __ 91 67

July 3 __ 97 72

July 4 __ 99 74 _ record to 1949

July 5 __ 98 78 _ record max to 1999 (was tied 1955)

July 6 __ 89 72 (0.35")

The rest of summer 1919 was not particularly hot (August quite cool, including record low 57F on 9th) and featured some heavy rainfalls at times. Sep 8 tied a record of 93F later broken by 97F in 2015. Oct 3 (87F) and Oct 29 (83F) are surviving records set in a warm October. 

Both 1911 and 1919 were followed by extremely cold Januaries in 1912 and 1920. 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It might have been more than just the 1960s though as it seems the 1940s, 1950s and 1970s were also quite dry, Chris. So what California has been experiencing over the past decade is what we experienced back then? That's what I mean by cycles, that has to flip at some point.

 

Doesn’t  look like we will be switching to a drier pattern like that’s anytime soon since the pattern has become so much wetter in the last 20 years.  Flooding has been more of a concern here than drought. Models backing off the heat next week due to the tropical low moving up the coast. Makes sense since past instances of 103°-105° heat didn’t have a return to near 100° so soon. 

New run

Old run

[SACRUS]

 

76/ 69 clear. Great stretch of summery weather coming up, warm -  hot today, mainly clear and dry - 80s - low 90s in the hotter areas.  Passing storms tonight, look to stay mainly north and will make way for a gorgeous fourth of july - beach - bbq - bay - fireworks and outside dry- sunny warm mainly 80s / some 70s shores and north. 

 Sat - mon - warm - hot / humid  80s to low/mid 90s in the hot areas  - hottest looks monday - onshore component keeps heat focused inland. 

Beyond there overall warm - hot , humid and wetter - see onshore frequency.  Way beyond continues to see ridge building heights east with heat following for a hot close.


 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 105 (1966)
NYC: 103 (1966)
LGA: 107 (1966)
JFK: 104 (1966)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 57 (1953)
NYC: 54 (1933)
LGA: 57 (1969)
JFK: 56 (2001)


Historical:

 

1873: A tornado in Hancock County, in far west central Illinois, destroyed several farms. From a distance, witnesses initially thought the tornado was smoke from a fire. A child was killed after being carried 500 yards; 10 other people were injured.

1933: Very cool 52° equaled the July minimum at DC; the "Dog Days" traditionally begin this day of the year. The hot weather period received its name from Sirius, the brightest visible star in the sky and known as the Dog Star. Sirius rises in the east at the same time as the sun this time of the year. (The Weather Channel)

1956: Lightning set off a dynamite charge near Brooksville, FL, killing one woman. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1960: A major hail storm caused $1.5 million dollars in damage across the Denver, CO metro area. The heaviest damage occurred in south Denver, Englewood, Littleton and Golden from wind-driven hail as large as golf balls. Winds were estimated between 60 and 70 mph. Heavy rainfall was estimated at 2 to 3 inches. Hail carried flood waters drifted 3 to 4 feet deep. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1966 - The northeastern U.S. was in the midst of a sweltering heat wave. The temperature at Philadelphia reached 104 degrees. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees at Hartford CT, 105 degrees at Allentown PA, and 107 degrees at LaGuardia Airport in New York City established all-time records for those two locations. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1975: Up to 3 inches of rain caused flash flooding throughout Las Vegas, NV. The main damage occurred to vehicles at Caesars Palace with approximately 700 damaged or destroyed with several cars found miles away. North Las Vegas was hardest hit with $3.5 million in damage. Two people drowned in the flood waters.

1987 - Lightning struck and killed three men playing golf on a course near Kingsport TN. The three men had sought shelter from the rain under a tall tree on a small hill. Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in New Jersey, with 5.2 inches reported at Trenton State College. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms around Fort Worth, TX, produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Burleson, along with two inches of rain in thirty minutes. The record low of 46 degrees at Youngstown OH was their sixth in a row. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in the eastern U.S. Bowling Green, KY, was soaked with 4.99 inches of rain during the morning hours, and up to ten inches of rain deluged Oconee County SC. The temperature at Alamosa, CO, soared to a record warm reading of 91 degrees, following a record low of 35 degrees the previous day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
 

[Sundog]

Surprisingly I got to 66 or 67 degrees last night. I was wondering how it got so cool in the house, I thought my wife forgot to turn off the AC lol.

Then the Sun came up and my temperature jumped 10 degrees in one hour and now I'm 81 degrees. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

33 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

76/ 69 clear. Great stretch of summery weather coming up, warm -  hot today, mainly clear and dry - 80s - low 90s in the hotter areas.  Passing storms tonight, look to stay mainly north and will make way for a gorgeous fourth of july - beach - bbq - bay - fireworks and outside dry- sunny warm mainly 80s / some 70s shores and north. 

 Sat - mon - warm - hot / humid  80s to low/mid 90s in the hot areas  - hottest looks monday - onshore component keeps heat focused inland. 

Beyond there overall warm - hot , humid and wetter - see onshore frequency.  Way beyond continues to see ridge building heights east with heat following for a hot close.


 

Rare day where severe is less likely in central Jersey severe ally then north and east of the city. 

[Stormlover74]

Should be later tonight if we get anything 

[psv88]

4:15 tee time today. Hope we can get the round in

[nycwinter]

warm outside but not to bad there is a nice breeze blowing..

[Brian5671]

Nice summer day here- 85 and sunny-maybe a storm later

[winterwx21]

Should hit at least 90 here today, but the dewwpoint is down to 62. Doesn't feel bad out there with the lower humidity. Severe weather risk this evening, but it looks like just isolated activity and more likely to the north. 

[SACRUS]

 

87 / 60 here

[JonClaw]

GFS has dewpoints getting into the mid-50s tomorrow. It'll be a pleasant 4th.

[STORMANLI]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

4:15 tee time today. Hope we can get the round in

Not sure if any activity makes it here before 630pm and watching Dews drop or at all.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

Not sure if any activity makes it here before 630pm and watching Dews drop or at all.

Looks pretty isolated on the HRRR

[donsutherland1]

18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It might have been more than just the 1960s though as it seems the 1940s, 1950s and 1970s were also quite dry, Chris. So what California has been experiencing over the past decade is what we experienced back then? That's what I mean by cycles, that has to flip at some point.

 

There are cycles and there are also longer-term trends. For example, New York City is seeing increasing precipitation (as expected from climate change). Its cycles continue and a drier cycle will commence at some point, but the overall trend is for greater annual precipitation.

In contrast, parts of California and the Desert Southwest are in an aridification trend. There will be wetter cycles, but the overall trend is reduced precipitation.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

35 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

GFS has dewpoints getting into the mid-50s tomorrow. It'll be a pleasant 4th.

That’s actually super ideal for fireworks. The lower dews mean less smoke clogging up the sky. 

[SACRUS]

 

12PM round up:
 

EWR: 90
ACY: 89
PHL: 89
ISP: 88
LGA: 88
TEB: 88
New Brnswck: 88
JFK: 87
BLM: 87
NYC: 86
TTN: 85

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There are cycles and there are also longer-term trends. For example, New York City is seeing increasing precipitation (as expected from climate change). Its cycles continue and a drier cycle will commence at some point, but the overall trend is greater annual precipitation.

In contrast, parts of California and the Desert Southwest are in an aridification trend. There will be wetter cycles, but the overall trend is reduced precipitation.

Don what are the geographical differences that are causing these different results? I would expect more rainfall in the West because they have an ocean to the west of them (the jet stream goes west to east for the most part) and less rainfall in the East because we have an entire continent to the west of us.

Another thing worth noting about the 60s is that although they were dryer, they had a lot more snow than the decades surrounding them-- my ideal combo, lots of snow in the winter and dry and hot weather in the summer.  1960-61, 1963-64 and 1966-67 were all classic and even historic winters.

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s actually super ideal for fireworks. The lower dews mean less smoke clogging up the sky. 

deep blue skies are ideal, we had that for the Fourth a few years ago, was that in 2018? I don't remember the year....

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

Surprisingly I got to 66 or 67 degrees last night. I was wondering how it got so cool in the house, I thought my wife forgot to turn off the AC lol.

Then the Sun came up and my temperature jumped 10 degrees in one hour and now I'm 81 degrees. 

ideal weather!!

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 105 (1966)
NYC: 103 (1966)
LGA: 107 (1966)
JFK: 104 (1966)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 57 (1953)
NYC: 54 (1933)
LGA: 57 (1969)
JFK: 56 (2001)


Historical:

 

1873: A tornado in Hancock County, in far west central Illinois, destroyed several farms. From a distance, witnesses initially thought the tornado was smoke from a fire. A child was killed after being carried 500 yards; 10 other people were injured.

1933: Very cool 52° equaled the July minimum at DC; the "Dog Days" traditionally begin this day of the year. The hot weather period received its name from Sirius, the brightest visible star in the sky and known as the Dog Star. Sirius rises in the east at the same time as the sun this time of the year. (The Weather Channel)

1956: Lightning set off a dynamite charge near Brooksville, FL, killing one woman. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1960: A major hail storm caused $1.5 million dollars in damage across the Denver, CO metro area. The heaviest damage occurred in south Denver, Englewood, Littleton and Golden from wind-driven hail as large as golf balls. Winds were estimated between 60 and 70 mph. Heavy rainfall was estimated at 2 to 3 inches. Hail carried flood waters drifted 3 to 4 feet deep. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1966 - The northeastern U.S. was in the midst of a sweltering heat wave. The temperature at Philadelphia reached 104 degrees. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees at Hartford CT, 105 degrees at Allentown PA, and 107 degrees at LaGuardia Airport in New York City established all-time records for those two locations. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1975: Up to 3 inches of rain caused flash flooding throughout Las Vegas, NV. The main damage occurred to vehicles at Caesars Palace with approximately 700 damaged or destroyed with several cars found miles away. North Las Vegas was hardest hit with $3.5 million in damage. Two people drowned in the flood waters.

1987 - Lightning struck and killed three men playing golf on a course near Kingsport TN. The three men had sought shelter from the rain under a tall tree on a small hill. Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in New Jersey, with 5.2 inches reported at Trenton State College. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms around Fort Worth, TX, produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Burleson, along with two inches of rain in thirty minutes. The record low of 46 degrees at Youngstown OH was their sixth in a row. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in the eastern U.S. Bowling Green, KY, was soaked with 4.99 inches of rain during the morning hours, and up to ten inches of rain deluged Oconee County SC. The temperature at Alamosa, CO, soared to a record warm reading of 91 degrees, following a record low of 35 degrees the previous day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
 

So nice of you to acknowledge 1966, Tony!  Was this the summer with the most 100+ days at all reporting sites at the same time?

1966 - The northeastern U.S. was in the midst of a sweltering heat wave. The temperature at Philadelphia reached 104 degrees. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees at Hartford CT, 105 degrees at Allentown PA, and 107 degrees at LaGuardia Airport in New York City established all-time records for those two locations. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
and dont forget the 104 at JFK, our all time record too and our only three day 100+ streak!!!

 

 

Highs:

EWR: 105 (1966)
NYC: 103 (1966)
LGA: 107 (1966)
JFK: 104 (1966)

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Doesn’t  look like we will be switching to a drier pattern like that’s anytime soon since the pattern has become so much wetter in the last 20 years.  Flooding has been more of a concern here than drought. Models backing off the heat next week due to the tropical low moving up the coast. Makes sense since past instances of 103°-105° heat didn’t have a return to near 100° so soon. 

New run

Old run

Another thing worth noting about the 60s is that although they were dryer, they had a lot more snow than the decades surrounding them-- my ideal combo, lots of snow in the winter and dry and hot weather in the summer.  1960-61, 1963-64 and 1966-67 were all classic and even historic winters.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

The 1911 heat looks like this:

July 2 __ 94 75

July 3 __100 77 _ max tied 1898 as record broken by 103F in 1966. ... all mins slightly below records set in 1876 (3rd) and 1908 (4th-6th)

July 4 __ 97 77 _ max set record broken by 99F in 1919 (eventual 102F 1949)

July 5 __ 97 77 _ max set record broken by 98F in 1919 (tied in 1955) (eventual 101F 1999)

July 6 __ 98 77 (0.12") _ max set record tied in 1986 and broken in 1999 (101F) (then 2010 103F)

July 7 __ 86 74 

July 8 __ 81 70 ... looks like front pushed a little south then rebounded

July 9 __ 92 69

July 10__ 99 78 (.02") _ max set record broken by 1936 (tied 1999) of 102F ... min was 1F lower than 1905 record tied 1910 79F, broken by 80F 1993)

July 11__ 97 76 _ max set record broken by 98F in 1988 (97F again in 1993)

July 12__ 90 78 _ min was 1F lower than 1905 record 79F still record today)

July 13 __88 72

_____

It stayed relatively warm all summer without this level of heat, and rainfall picked up steadily through August, 1.52" rain 15th and 1.65" 25th, until record cool daytime values arrived Aug 30 and 31 (highs 62, 59; lows 56, 55) (4.61" rain in 2d)

_____

Heat in 1919 followed rapidly some record cool nights June 29 (52F) and June 30 (53F). It was a hot spell of relatively brief duration. 

July 1 __ 90 60

July 2 __ 91 67

July 3 __ 97 72

July 4 __ 99 74 _ record to 1949

July 5 __ 98 78 _ record max to 1999 (was tied 1955)

July 6 __ 89 72 (0.35")

The rest of summer 1919 was not particularly hot (August quite cool, including record low 57F on 9th) and featured some heavy rainfalls at times. Sep 8 tied a record of 93F later broken by 97F in 2015. Oct 3 (87F) and Oct 29 (83F) are surviving records set in a warm October. 

Both 1911 and 1919 were followed by extremely cold Januaries in 1912 and 1920. 

It's fairly common to have really good winters after 100 degree heat in the summer (examples are 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1993, 1995, 2010, 2013).