Newark (interiors of NJ/se NYS/CT) Sun-Wed June 22-25 possibly hottest 3-4 day period this year (2025) with 2-4 100F+ days, possibly hottest June daily. NYC probably one 100 deg. HI exceeds 105 interior M-T June 23-24.

[wdrag]

Model guidance (especially European) for days has been forecasting 100 degree heat, with the potential suppressants being early developing daily sea breezes and/or thunderstorms-clouds debris.

While severe storms cause damage, excessive heat can cause fatalities if not properly prepared. Please follow NWS guidance and advise of local officials-cooling centers, hydrating etc as this heat wave develops. 

The Heat Wave 'may' break next Thu-Fri before reasserting for another opportunity at 100F next weekend - June 28-29.

June record stats in the 90+ year Period of Record (POR)... 100+. Newark 2 days,  NYC CP 1.

Yearly warmest 3 day max temp period ever in Newark over the 90+ period of record. We MAY??? crack top 10. See attached graphic. 

Added Preparedness statistics graphic...believe--especially urban centers which may not cool below 82 degrees Monday and Tuesday nights. HEAT on average is the highest fatality hazard.  

WPC statistical probability of MAX HI on the 23rd is added... from the graphic you can see that is a 50-70% chance in the interior.   post completed 1105PM/19

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Long live 1966 and 1993 and 2010 and 2011 some of our hottest summers on record, notice that EWR and JFK hottest days and hottest summers match up well, Walt!!

[dWave]

Upton issued Extreme Heat Watch issued for most of the area, eastern Suffolk is left out.

Is that different for an Excessive Heat Watch/Warning? Or did they just change the terminology?

NWS has 100 forecasted for Mon and Tues. At least point and click in the Bx, a lot of Queens

[uofmiami]

23 minutes ago, dWave said:

Upton issued Extreme Heat Watch issued for most of the area, eastern Suffolk is left out.

Is that different for an Excessive Heat Watch/Warning? Or did they just change the terminology?

NWS has 100 forecasted for Mon and Tues. At least point and click in the Bx, a lot of Queens

https://www.weather.gov/news/250310-heat-hazard

NWS is renaming its Heat Watch and Heat Warning products to improve messaging. On March 4, 2025, the NWS will implement the following changes: 

Excessive Heat Watches will be renamed to Extreme Heat Watches.

Excessive Heat Warnings will be renamed to Extreme Heat Warnings.

[nycwinter]

49 minutes ago, dWave said:

Upton issued Extreme Heat Watch issued for most of the area, eastern Suffolk is left out.

Is that different for an Excessive Heat Watch/Warning? Or did they just change the terminology?

NWS has 100 forecasted for Mon and Tues. At least point and click in the Bx, a lot of Queens

a excessive heat warning is when temps and humidity are basically guaranteed to reach a certain criteria while a extreme watch is not as confident the criteria will be met..

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Upton issued Extreme Heat Watch issued for most of the area, eastern Suffolk is left out.

Is that different for an Excessive Heat Watch/Warning? Or did they just change the terminology?

NWS has 100 forecasted for Mon and Tues. At least point and click in the Bx, a lot of Queens

Busy w granddaughter but I think terminology has changed. UNUSUAL for NWS to issue a watch 3-6 days in advance.  Confidence high on problems.  In the Deep South they might handle it better??  but here its sudden onset and magnitude.  Ensembles continue 100+ for the I95 corridor. 

[wdrag]

31 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

a excessive heat warning is when temps and humidity are basically guaranteed to reach a certain criteria while a extreme watch is not as confident the criteria will be met..

but consider that forecasters do not like egg on their face so to speak... none of us like to be wrong.  In this case confidence is high that problems will develop of the magnitude described. Yes watch is less confident than warning, 

[SnoSki14]

Some 110+ heat indices have to be in play. 

Also likely the hottest temps of the summer. Weeklies shift ridge further west (drought region) with more of an over the top look for July. 

Less extreme heat, more typical hot/humid type stuff

[Snowlover11]

Extreme Heat Warnings issued for just about everyone minus the city/island

[wdrag]

Looks to me like action packed 10 days ahead.  

Maybe someone can add the latest on EFI temp here, as well as all time record max NYC, EWR... last time 100 NYC.  We already have the basics in the opener graphics.  

Noting PWAT near 2" Wed eve-Thu morning.  Could be local wet microbursts and FF in our area but that is not intentionally covered in this thread.  May add it early next week but only if it includes Wed.  This thread is first and foremost dedicated to coming heat in our NYC suboforum and whether the EPS over did it?  I am always cautious on extremes as I was in Sandy... and here too but we have to use the science to the best of our ability to mitigate adverse impact. and the science is improving.

Brownouts coming NYC? 

This 4 day period is human-pet threat, especially the vulnerable young-old, limited cognitio and wherewithal.  Good to prepare to to monitor and assist where needed.

 

HW I think begins I95 corridor in NJ today with first 90.  

Probably my last on this today

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Looks to me like action packed 10 days ahead.  

Maybe someone can add the latest on EFI temp here, as well as all time record max NYC, EWR... last time 100 NYC.  We already have the basics in the opener graphics.  

Noting PWAT near 2" Wed eve-Thu morning.  Could be local wet microbursts and FF in our area but that is not intentionally covered in this thread.  May add it early next week but only if it includes Wed.  This thread is first and foremost dedicated to coming heat in our NYC suboforum and whether the EPS over did it?  I am always cautious on extremes as I was in Sandy... and here too but we have to use the science to the best of our ability to mitigate adverse impact. and the science is improving.

Brownouts coming NYC? 

This 4 day period is human-pet threat, especially the vulnerable young-old, limited cognitio and wherewithal.  Good to prepare to to monitor and assist where needed.

 

HW I think begins I95 corridor in NJ today with first 90.  

Probably my last on this today

Ironic that you mentioned Sandy, Walt, the last time I remember such extreme heat so early was in June 2012, and we experienced Sandy a few months later.

[wdrag]

My concern with this east coast heatwave is heat related fatalities...  I could be reading this wrong and someone else can post more realistic perspective.

[MANDA]

51 minutes ago, wdrag said:

My concern with this east coast heatwave is heat related fatalities...  I could be reading this wrong and someone else can post more realistic perspective.

Think valid concern especially in the large inner cities and especially with the elderly with minimal resources and support systems to get them to safety.  Overnight lows and associated HI readings will be brutal if not prepared.  Would not be surprised to see HI readings of 110 or even a bit higher at some point during this hot period.  Think most max temperatures top out in the 97 - 102 range but with dews in the m/u 60's to near 70 it will be beastly hot if no a/c, again especially in the inner cities.  Believe all warnings justified and hopefully cities will open cooling centers starting tomorrow.

Tuesday for sure looks like the worst of it area wide.

 

[Stormlover74]

88 already at ewr. Heatwave begins today there 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

88 already at ewr. Heatwave begins today there 

we hit 88 here too but then the clouds came in

[SACRUS]

 

87 / 61 

 

WNW wind

 

[SACRUS]

Little MCS moving into WPA/ SW WNY

[donsutherland1]

A number of charts and tables for reference for what appears likely to be a notable and perhaps historic bout of June heat:

EFI: June 23, 2025:

EFI: June 24, 2025:

NWS Heat Risk: June 23, 2025:

NWS Heat Risk: June 24, 2025:

June Monthly Records:

June 1-Day, 2-Day, 3-Day Records:

Select Additional Data:

June Extremes:

 

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A number of charts and tables for reference for what appears likely to be a notable and perhaps historic bout of June heat:

EFI: June 23, 2025:

EFI: June 24, 2025:

NWS Heat Risk: June 23, 2025:

NWS Heat Risk: June 24, 2025:

June Monthly Records:

June 1-Day, 2-Day, 3-Day Records:

Select Additional Data:

June Extremes:

 

wow the last 100 at JFK occurred exactly a year (to the date!) later than NYC!

[dmillz25]

Extreme heat warning now for the city 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

JFK has the best shot of setting an all time June record Tuesday. With compressional downslope heating. I’m not looking forward to 10000000 degree sand at the beach, it can get hot enough to cause 1st degree burns fast. 

[wdrag]

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow the last 100 at JFK occurred exactly a year (to the date!) later than 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

JFK has the best shot of setting an all time June record Tuesday. With compressional downslope heating. I’m not looking forward to 10000000 degree sand at the beach, it can get hot enough to cause 1st degree burns fast. 

Did you see what I posted about June 26, 1952?

 

Sorry to say this about models, but they aren't very smart

Look at this from a climate history perspective.

June 26, 1952 at JFK -- 99 degrees on a SSW wind at 13 mph!!

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1952-6-26

 

12:00 PM	94 °F	75 °F	54 %	SW	18 mph	0 mph	29.78 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
1:00 PM	95 °F	74 °F	50 %	SW	17 mph	0 mph	29.76 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
2:00 PM	98 °F	73 °F	44 %	SW	15 mph	0 mph	29.75 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
3:00 PM	99 °F	72 °F	42 %	SSW	13 mph	0 mph	29.75 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
4:00 PM	92 °F	73 °F	54 %	SSW	13 mph	0 mph	29.75 in	0.0 in	Fair
5:00 PM	99 °F	68 °F	36 %	WSW	20 mph	0 mph	29.73 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
6:00 PM	99 °F	69 °F	38 %	WSW	15 mph	0 mph	29.73 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
7:00 PM	94 °F	74 °F	52 %	SW	12 mph	0 mph	29.74 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy

[wdrag]

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow the last 100 at JFK occurred exactly a year (to the date!) later than NYC!

 

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

A number of charts and tables for reference for what appears likely to be a notable and perhaps historic bout of June heat:

EFI: June 23, 2025:

EFI: June 24, 2025:

NWS Heat Risk: June 23, 2025:

NWS Heat Risk: June 24, 2025:

June Monthly Records:

June 1-Day, 2-Day, 3-Day Records:

Select Additional Data:

June Extremes:

 

Perfect.  Thank you very much Don!

[LibertyBell]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Did you see what I posted about June 26, 1952?

 

Sorry to say this about models, but they aren't very smart

Look at this from a climate history perspective.

June 26, 1952 at JFK -- 99 degrees on a SSW wind at 13 mph!!

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1952-6-26

 

12:00 PM	94 °F	75 °F	54 %	SW	18 mph	0 mph	29.78 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
1:00 PM	95 °F	74 °F	50 %	SW	17 mph	0 mph	29.76 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
2:00 PM	98 °F	73 °F	44 %	SW	15 mph	0 mph	29.75 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
3:00 PM	99 °F	72 °F	42 %	SSW	13 mph	0 mph	29.75 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
4:00 PM	92 °F	73 °F	54 %	SSW	13 mph	0 mph	29.75 in	0.0 in	Fair
5:00 PM	99 °F	68 °F	36 %	WSW	20 mph	0 mph	29.73 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
6:00 PM	99 °F	69 °F	38 %	WSW	15 mph	0 mph	29.73 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy
7:00 PM	94 °F	74 °F	52 %	SW	12 mph	0 mph	29.74 in	0.0 in	Partly Cloudy

and it's hard to believe it did not hit 100 at JFK in between hours on this date, when it was 99 on a SSW wind and then the wind switched to WSW and it was 99 for two more hours.....

 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Extreme heat warning now for the city 

should be one for Nassau County too

[wdrag]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow the last 100 at JFK occurred exactly a year (to the date!) later than NYC!

 

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

A number of charts and tables for reference for what appears likely to be a notable and perhaps historic bout of June heat:

EFI: June 23, 2025:

EFI: June 24, 2025:

NWS Heat Risk: June 23, 2025:

NWS Heat Risk: June 24, 2025:

June Monthly Records:

June 1-Day, 2-Day, 3-Day Records:

Select Additional Data:

June Extremes:

 

Perfect.  Thank you very much Don!

[wdrag]

Newark I think hit 90 before 2PM

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Newark I think hit 90 before 2PM

it hit 90 here at 2:30 nice offshore breeze

[MANDA]

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Newark I think hit 90 before 2PM

Looks like max was 91 degrees at 2:25.