powderfreak Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: After curb stomping us during winter, this is when we can +1 you guys lol. 47F at top of the Gondola, 57F at the base. Windy with occasional squalls. Summer ops start tomorrow. A good 25F cooler than yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 47F at top of the Gondola, 57F at the base. Windy with occasional squalls. Summer ops start tomorrow. A good 25F cooler than yesterday. Cold pool rapidly moves out at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Cold pool rapidly moves out at least Yeah just a quickie. Upslope is already drying up. Gonna go right back up by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Here are the percentiles. This is a pretty damn good signal for highs to get into the 100's in the hottest spots. Not sure how much this applies to our area but in these anomalous heat patterns...those 70th-90th percentiles usually work out. This has with some of those big heat events within the West anyways...again not sure if that can be applied here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago What I think also gives this more support is the NBM doesn't look to be overmixed wither...still has upper 60's to lower 70's dewpoints. The NBM tends to be lower with dews. I guess though if we end up seeing dews more 72-73 versus say 68-71 then we may be more 99ish versus 101-102ish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 46kts ORH earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago GFS is so bad. Remember when it had the MCS cutting into NY State 2 days ago? LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago And as we suspected, the eastward movement furnaces Sunday and Monday. Jesus that model is dog shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is so bad. Remember when it had the MCS cutting into NY State 2 days ago? LOL. heh... it still has it though. Euro and GGEM's been on it as well... Granted it sucks with the placement.... It's ripping it more E and not curving it south. I'd still suggest that it's possible it turns the corner. Btw, this 12z NAM implies a kind of heat burst Sunday afternoon for eastern zones. The grid numbers suggest a wall of big heat sweeps in after 18z. It's not a 'textbook' heat burst, but it could surge from lower 80s to upper 90s late that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, Typhoon Tip said: heh... it still has it though. Euro and GGEM's been on it as well... Granted it sucks with the placement.... It's ripping it more E and not curving it south. I'd still suggest that it's possible it turns the corner. Btw, this 12z NAM implies a kind of heat burst Sunday afternoon for eastern zones. The grid numbers suggest a wall of big heat sweeps in after 18z. It's not a 'textbook' heat burst, but it could surge from lower 80s to upper 90s late that day. It finally got in line with that the euro has had for days. That model is watery dog shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Jesus ...look at this 582+ dam thickness ballooning over us by 4pm Sunday afternoon... What ever machine numbers are on that day, go bigger. Very strange to have a Caribou low with that type of circulation and that going on simultaneously. this is highly unusual idiosyncratic behavior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Crap had a spider crawling on my leg. This is why I hate shorts...they expose skin. I felt something on my leg and thought it was one of those weird looking flying white things so I slapped it off and then saw it starting to crawl and it was a spider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Crap had a spider crawling on my leg. This is why I hate shorts...they expose skin. I felt something on my leg and thought it was one of those weird looking flying white things so I slapped it off and then saw it starting to crawl and it was a spider. What's the big deal? Your friend's hand crawls up your leg...why not a spider? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What's the big deal? Your friend's hand crawls up your leg...why not a spider? They call that “storm chasing” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Crap had a spider crawling on my leg. This is why I hate shorts...they expose skin. I felt something on my leg and thought it was one of those weird looking flying white things so I slapped it off and then saw it starting to crawl and it was a spider. His friend is waiting outside ......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: They call that “storm chasing” Wonder if he got into the bears cage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is so bad. Remember when it had the MCS cutting into NY State 2 days ago? LOL. Sunday has to be watched closely though. Either with MCS timing or if the MCS is north any outflow acts as a boundary but that is about as volatile of an airmass you'll see here with tremendous shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago So is the MCS on or off ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I thought the GFS was schooling the Euro as some thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Sunday has to be watched closely though. Either with MCS timing or if the MCS is north any outflow acts as a boundary but that is about as volatile of an airmass you'll see here with tremendous shear. NAM is fascinating .. it's doing a classic plains outflow boundary severe response on the trailing edge of a derecho outflow boundary at 11am Sunday, then... rolls that mess out in time for big heat numbers by 20z later that afternoon.... Below is 11am... by 4pm, it's 90+ with no trace of this and west wind everywhere. GFS does not have this ... ends up 95 to 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: I thought the GFS was schooling the Euro as some thought? yes ...it does, whenever in the winter the Euro's given the base a dopamine jolt and the gfs' shittin' in punch bowl blows the Euro out of the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So is the MCS on or off ? Congrats Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: NAM is fascinating .. it's doing a classic plains outflow boundary severe response on the trailing edge of a derecho outflow boundary at 11am Sunday, then... rolls that mess out in time for big heat numbers by 20z later that afternoon.... Below is 11am... by 4pm, it's 90+ with no trace of this and west wind everywhere. GFS does not have this ... ends up 95 to 99 It's extremely intriguing. These type of setups are absolutely brutal to forecast in the northern Plains/upper-Midwest (where I think they are "most common") so imagine how much of a pain for us. Obviously there is going to be a hell of a cap in place plus we will have heights rising...but this could be offset a bit in a NAM solution. But this is something where if you're just looking at QPF alone...you could totally miss/disregard any convective potential and all of a sudden inside 12 hours mesos start going wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's extremely intriguing. These type of setups are absolutely brutal to forecast in the northern Plains/upper-Midwest (where I think they are "most common") so imagine how much of a pain for us. Obviously there is going to be a hell of a cap in place plus we will have heights rising...but this could be offset a bit in a NAM solution. But this is something where if you're just looking at QPF alone...you could totally miss/disregard any convective potential and all of a sudden inside 12 hours mesos start going wild. These models are actually responding to the rapidity of the ridge burst in the larger synoptic sense. The MCS zygote is already skirting E through the NP Saturday but then it moves into a favorable differential thickness packing where the ridge/heat suddenly expands NE... It's possible the CIN shuts the door in NE while the NAM is still "sort of" right about the outflow boundary.. I could see that being a burst of wind and a coughing shelf cloud field that doesn't have anything aft of it. So sort of mid way between the global and meso idea - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: No by all means do. I'm just implying that sizable trees fall in CT because a squirrel farts. Also the occasional chipmunk! Did note 14,000 outages in MA and scattered reports across eastern NY and Northern New England... Bottom line is the New England region has an aging dense hardwood tree canopy with an abundance of diseased and previous damaged trees! We need either a derecho or CAT 3 to clean house... 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Scott's right in that assessment ... it's a warmer than normal mid latitude continent synoptic and super synoptic ( tendency...) through 300+ hours. The GFS actually rolls big heat back in by next Saturday, and I'm not completely sold on the idea that Thur and Frid will really turn out that corrected. Even if so, it transient and would likely yield the bigger signal with at least episodic heat returns. GGEM is essentially the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: No by all means do. I'm just implying that sizable trees fall in CT because a squirrel farts. Also the occasional chipmunk! Did note 14,000 outages in MA and scattered reports across eastern NY and Northern New England... Bottom line is the New England region has an aging dense hardwood tree canopy with an abundance of diseased and previous damaged trees! We need either a derecho or CAT 3 to clean house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Scott's right in that assessment ... it's a warmer than normal mid latitude continent synoptic and super synoptic ( tendency...) through 300+ hours. The GFS actually rolls big heat back in by next Saturday, and I'm not completely sold on the idea that Thur and Frid will really turn out that corrected. Even if so, it transient and would likely yield the bigger signal with at least episodic heat returns. GGEM is essentially the same. It's possible the srfc temps could be tainted at times with erly flow, especially at the coast. But weaken the erly gradient enough and with 18-20C 850 temps....you'll have one of those 85F ESE seabreezes on runway 090 at Logan while West Roxbury is 96. It does seem like we may try to trough more towards the 4th. At least on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Extreme Heat Watches hoisted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Another horrific acorn year is here. Picking up all these limbs and they’re loaded for bear WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now