June 2025 Obs/Disco

[Cyclone-68]

As we’re only a day away from the 72nd anniversary of the great Worcester Tornado, is there a way to get a current picture of this particular area as it looks today vs what this tornado depicts here in ‘53? I’ve tried google maps but with limited success..Any help is greatly appreciated. 

[Snowedin]

I pulled a small tic off my ankle earlier and man those little ones cling to ya like super glue! It must’ve latched on when I was strolling through a muddy trail yesterday. Wish I took a shot of the sunset earlier too..that damn smoke was thick today. I hope we can clear this crap out for the midweek.

[Damage In Tolland]

50’s and a washout coming Saturday. Ineedsnow has done it again 

[kdxken]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

50’s and a washout coming Saturday. Ineedsnow has done it again 

Certainly looks cool but I don't know where you're getting the washout from?

[dendrite]

GFS says GWDLT

[CoastalWx]

Not sure I buy that yet. Looks lame. 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully stein here and rain Union CT points S and W on Sunday. 

[kdxken]

"I am continuing to watch the chance for showers, once again poorly timed for the weekend - along with below average temps.  This would make the 13th Saturday in a row across SNE with at least some rain.  All the models show that chance for showers. I wouldn’t call it a washout yet…the Euro has an ensemble mean rainfall around 0.25”….the GFS is closer to 0.15”…the Canadian is wettest closer to 0.50”.  "

[CoastalWx]

It’s basically a WNW to ESE moving system with the low well to the SW. This time of year you don’t have the baroclinic processes to force precip well north and east. We’ll see. Maybe it’s a ribbon of clouds and some showers, but I could see many areas staying dry the further north and east you go. 

[NoCORH4L]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s basically a WNW to ESE moving system with the low well to the SW. This time of year you don’t have the baroclinic processes to force precip well north and east. We’ll see. Maybe it’s a ribbon of clouds and some showers, but I could see many areas staying dry the further north and east you go. 

I dunno, the AFD is calling for a coastal.....

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

I dunno, the AFD is calling for a coastal.....

I don’t see a coastal on any model. 

[CoastalWx]

Loop the models, it’s a weak low going well south. But any clouds and rain at this point will piss us off lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

At this point prepare for the worst, and reality will deliver even worse 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Loop the models, it’s a weak low going well south. But any clouds and rain at this point will piss us off lol.

Oh the models are buckin' for a winter pattern analog - just doing it aoa 564 thickness instead of 534 -

Take the depth of the thickness out if for sake of discussion, if you saw these synoptic features set up this way ( as the 00z Euro below), on Dec 10, you'd be giddy for mood snows and holiday vibes...

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh the models are buckin' for a winter pattern analog - just doing it aoa 564 thickness instead of 534 -

Take the depth of the thickness out, if you saw these synoptic features set up this way ( as the 00z Euro below), on Dec 10, you'd giddy for mood snows and holiday vibes...

Have yep. Even if it were partly sunny it’s definitely not a warm look.

[Typhoon Tip]

A peculiar aspect has been going on between the teleconnection prognostics ( from all sources),  vs the operational counter parts of those sources. Those being ECMWF, GFS, CMC

The telecons spread has been correlated to warmer than normal since early April

The operational runs have been routinely/predominatingly low-balling, with modeled outlooks persistently materializing synoptics that look like at best like they are at the bottom margin of the correlation fields.

They're doing it again now ... they are unrelenting keeping a N-stream anachronistic to the season, and this is suppressing real heat, as well as making flow unusually progressive along 40N across the continent ( not sure if this is a hemispheric plague but I suspect it's just N/A where this has been/is still the modeled case).   And they have been winning..   We've had one or two hot days, everything else has been pedestrian. 

But here's the thing ... they kind of both have been winning and losing.  Because temperatures have in fact verified above normal so far AMJ/3.  But the devil's in relativity.  The pattern relative temperatures have verified much warmer than the operational pattern. This may or may not be CC hiding in the works, but whatever the cause ...we have been getting warmer than the verified patterns suggests we should - all the while, the verifying pattern has not been very well correlated to the teleconnections. 

This doesn't bode well for the summer ... If it continues with this head game, those that want the true deep heat may have to deal with a temperate summer.  Basically also just a continuation of the winter, where N/A apparently was the nadir in temperatures compared to the rest of the entire planet. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Because of the stunningly stalwart defiance to change (the trend that has never un-trended itself  ... ) I'm gonna go ahead and just assume this precarious weekend dong set up of a pattern will go ahead a verify the rape and claim a 14th soul in row ... At this point, we've seen a dozen different modeled reasons to not fuck up a weekend's sensible weather, with a 0-15 W-L record.  Sometimes, the trend just has to end per its own unpredictable nature, and it's just a waiting game.  That means no matter what outlook says otherwise, the onus in on the trend to stop at all. Because apparently ... there are no scenarios capable of stopping it within the capacity of human technology for detection.  So, if you're an operational Met predicting the summer, you forecast all weekends fucked until further notice.   Capiche?

[cleetussnow]

7 hours ago, Snowedin said:

I pulled a small tic off my ankle earlier and man those little ones cling to ya like super glue! It must’ve latched on when I was strolling through a muddy trail yesterday. Wish I took a shot of the sunset earlier too..that damn smoke was thick today. I hope we can clear this crap out for the midweek.

I got bit this weekend by a small one.  I'm going on Doxy today and getting a collar for the dog.  He had one seizure last year while one bravecto, collar, and permethrin in the lawn.  We are cutting bravecto and the permethrin and hoping the collar on its own doesn't cause seizures.