BxEngine Posted Monday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:28 PM If we dont break records its a fail 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted Monday at 09:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:45 PM So what are the odd's that this dome sticks around much longer than what's being forecasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Monday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:39 PM It will become somewhat warmer tomorrow with highs reaching the lower 70s. By Wednesday, the mercury will likely reach 80°. A sustained period of above normal temperatures will then develop by midweek. No exceptional heat appears likely through the first three weeks of June. However, that could change shortly afterward if some of the extended range guidance is correct. Excessive heat is possible starting early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was -12.72 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.731 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5° (1.5° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted Monday at 11:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:01 PM Too far out to know exacts but the latest GFS has more onshore flow than the Euro next week, so it has lower temps (mid to upper 90's) with higher humidity. Unfortunately it's been the theme of a lot of our heat waves in recent times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted Monday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:06 PM it’s so beautiful outside next week i will die 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 11:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:10 PM 8 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: Too far out to know exacts but the latest GFS has more onshore flow than the Euro next week, so it has lower temps (mid to upper 90's) with higher humidity. Unfortunately it's been the theme of a lot of our heat waves in recent times If the ridge gets too steep it’ll turn our winds southerly and the worst heat will overshoot our area again. Still plenty of time for that to happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 11:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:15 PM 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If the ridge gets too steep it’ll turn our winds southerly and the worst heat will overshoot our area again. Still plenty of time for that to happen. dry heat is better than humid heat I keep thinking to July 2010, 101 with 45 dew point so refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted Monday at 11:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:22 PM 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: you people whine too much, millions of people live under 120 degree temperatures. 2 foot snowstorms kill more people than what passes for *heat* here Agree. 94 or 100, zero difference, just like -5 or 0. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Monday at 11:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:25 PM 2 minutes ago, FPizz said: Agree. 94 or 100, zero difference, just like -5 or 0. 94 to 100 is a big difference for climate control systems, as well as grid stability, that's my biggest concern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted Monday at 11:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:37 PM the month is November 2048. i’m outside in my ClimoSuit Sponsored by Palantir enjoying another 110 degree day—the dew point is only 73 so i can lift the face shield to get a whiff of fresh air. i look down at my iPhone 42. metfan has just posted a 480 hour kuchera ratio snow map from the Sri Lankan model 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Monday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:39 PM Meanwhile back at the cloudy ranch hour 60 of this cloudy period Latest cold period Jun 14 EWR: 71 / 61 (-6) 0.31 NYC: 68 / 59 (-8) 0.23 LGA: 67 / 59 (-10) 0.13 JFK: 66 / 60 (-7) 1.00 Jun 15: EWR: 65 / 59 (-11) 0.19 NYC: 64 / 59 (-10) .03 LGA: 65 / 59 (-11) 0.03 JFK: 63 / 59 (-9) 0.07 Jun 16: EWR: 69 / 62 (-7) 0.03 NYC: 69 / 60 (-7) LGA: 68 / 60 (-10) JFK: 70 / 60 ( -5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted Monday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:39 PM 2 minutes ago, Santa Claus said: the month is November 2048. i’m outside in my ClimoSuit Sponsored by Palantir enjoying another 110 degree day—the dew point is only 73 so i can lift the face shield to get a whiff of fresh air. i look down at my iPhone 42. metfan has just posted a 480 hour kuchera ratio snow map from the Sri Lankan model The only snow you'll be getting in 2048 is the kind that comes from Columbia 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 12:01 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:01 AM 35 minutes ago, Sundog said: 94 to 100 is a big difference for climate control systems, as well as grid stability, that's my biggest concern. humidity/dew point 6 degree difference might be greater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 12:01 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:01 AM 22 minutes ago, Sundog said: The only snow you'll be getting in 2048 is the kind that comes from Columbia don't think Apple will be around then either, let alone the iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted yesterday at 12:10 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:10 AM 32 minutes ago, Santa Claus said: the month is November 2048. i’m outside in my ClimoSuit Sponsored by Palantir enjoying another 110 degree day—the dew point is only 73 so i can lift the face shield to get a whiff of fresh air. i look down at my iPhone 42. metfan has just posted a 480 hour kuchera ratio snow map from the Sri Lankan model Amazing post. Reminds me of the future of football in the year 17776 https://www.sbnation.com/a/17776-football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted yesterday at 12:34 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:34 AM Another 3 pages of Liberty gibberish. 71 here today 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 12:35 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:35 AM 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Another 3 pages of Liberty gibberish. 71 here today If you have ANYTHING better to talk about than historical extremes during this crap weather let us know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted yesterday at 01:11 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:11 AM 61 with rain showers at the moment; tad humid but don’t think we reached 65 today. I will miss this when it’s 98/72. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted yesterday at 01:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:26 AM 2 hours ago, TWCCraig said: Too far out to know exacts but the latest GFS has more onshore flow than the Euro next week, so it has lower temps (mid to upper 90's) with higher humidity. Unfortunately it's been the theme of a lot of our heat waves in recent times 18Z GFS had a backdoor cold front on Wednesday. The winds back to northeast dropping temperatures back towards more reasonably quite warm to maringally hot levels by Thursday. The GFS is extremely erratic, however, and the ECMWF a little less-so. But also the EPS trended slightly less hot than prior runs. So, wait to see more before forecasting high temperatures in the 105-108 degree range. I think we will have a chance of our first heatwave of the season and maybe the most intense heat since 2010 but we really do not know for sure yet, there's lots of time prior to next week for things to change. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted yesterday at 01:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:31 AM 4 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: 18Z GFS had a backdoor cold front on Wednesday. The winds back to northeast dropping temperatures back towards more reasonably quite warm to maringally hot levels by Thursday. The GFS is extremely erratic, however, and the ECMWF a little less-so. But also the EPS trended slightly less hot than prior runs. So, wait to see more before forecasting high temperatures in the 105-108 degree range. I think we will have a chance of our first heatwave of the season and maybe the most intense heat since 2010 but we really do not know for sure yet, there's lots of time prior to next week for things to change. WX/PT Do the 18z EPS look as hot as the 12z did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 01:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:38 AM 5 minutes ago, Sundog said: Do the 18z EPS look as hot as the 12z did? This reminds me of how we model *track* snowstorms in the winter. We have to factor climo in, the chances of getting 103+ temps ANY time, let alone June, which is the coolest of the three summer months, are about as high as getting a 30 inch snowstorm. Yes it can happen, but the chances are slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 01:39 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:39 AM 12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: 18Z GFS had a backdoor cold front on Wednesday. The winds back to northeast dropping temperatures back towards more reasonably quite warm to maringally hot levels by Thursday. The GFS is extremely erratic, however, and the ECMWF a little less-so. But also the EPS trended slightly less hot than prior runs. So, wait to see more before forecasting high temperatures in the 105-108 degree range. I think we will have a chance of our first heatwave of the season and maybe the most intense heat since 2010 but we really do not know for sure yet, there's lots of time prior to next week for things to change. WX/PT You have to say the most intense heat since 2011, since the temperatures were higher in 2011 than they were in 2010 (although 2010 had the hotter summer and more 100 degree / 95 degree / 90 degree days of course. If it gets to 100 areawide consider that historic especially for June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 01:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:41 AM 13 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: 18Z GFS had a backdoor cold front on Wednesday. The winds back to northeast dropping temperatures back towards more reasonably quite warm to maringally hot levels by Thursday. The GFS is extremely erratic, however, and the ECMWF a little less-so. But also the EPS trended slightly less hot than prior runs. So, wait to see more before forecasting high temperatures in the 105-108 degree range. I think we will have a chance of our first heatwave of the season and maybe the most intense heat since 2010 but we really do not know for sure yet, there's lots of time prior to next week for things to change. WX/PT I dont think this is going to be a 7+ day superheatwave ala 2013 or 2002 or 1999 or 1993. I think we can hit 90 or higher from Sunday to Thursday which is a 5 day heatwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 01:42 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:42 AM 30 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: 61 with rain showers at the moment; tad humid but don’t think we reached 65 today. I will miss this when it’s 98/72. I dont know how anyone could miss so much gloom and rain. Sunny and 70s is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted yesterday at 01:56 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:56 AM 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I dont think this is going to be a 7+ day superheatwave ala 2013 or 2002 or 1999 or 1993. I think we can hit 90 or higher from Sunday to Thursday which is a 5 day heatwave. Most recently we'll have to beat the Jul 19 - 24 , 2022 period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 01:58 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:58 AM 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Most recently we'll have to beat the Jul 19 - 24 , 2022 period. a 6 day heatwave during the climo peak heating period, do you know offhand the peak highs of that period for our three airports and the park, Tony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted yesterday at 02:10 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:10 AM 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Another 3 pages of Liberty gibberish. 71 here today At least we haven't had to hear about siphoning water from the mid-Atlantic to Mars or chopping down the forests of Canada for a day or two. I think we've gone at least three days without insecticide warfare against ticks too. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted yesterday at 02:34 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:34 AM earth could be falling into the sun and the park wont hit 100 degrees.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted yesterday at 02:36 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:36 AM 52 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I dont know how anyone could miss so much gloom and rain. Sunny and 70s is a different story. i would not mind it if was gloomy and misty all summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted yesterday at 03:00 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:00 AM Personally I'd rather see some severe than record heat We've been severely lacking in that department 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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