June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I havent sat thru one game or practice for my kids without getting rained on this season  Unreal

I really detest this new climate

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, rclab said:

By inner city standards it’s just another aroma amongst the many. Stay well, as always …..

My neighbors are complete morons.  The rains came and dowsed their fire so they poured oil on the fire which then caused it to flare up and almost ended up burning themselves and their 5 year old kid who was dancing around the fire.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, steve392 said:

Anyone see the video's of Howe Caverns and the flooding they received yesterday?

 

No, where is this place, upstate?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

another cool drab cloudy weekend day and now showers in the vicinity...i see showers and 69 showing up on my exteneded forecast for June 15....#yearwithoutasummer is a thing

Yes really, anyone talking about how CC is making our summers *hotter* is only referring to minimum temps.

[gravitylover]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No, where is this place, upstate?

A few minutes from Cooperstown. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

A few minutes from Cooperstown. 

I found out something interesting watching Jeopardy the other night.  Cooperstown was named after the family of the great writer, James Fenimore Cooper :-)

[Wannabehippie]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

My neighbors are complete morons.  The rains came and dowsed their fire so they poured oil on the fire which then caused it to flare up and almost ended up burning themselves and their 5 year old kid who was dancing around the fire.

 

Darwin award runner ups.

 

[steve392]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Couldn't have one completely good day.... at least it was sunny for the big parade lol.

I hate our new Ireland climate.

CC summers mean cool and rainy for us.

and if it's not cool and rainy it's warm and rainy, but never truly hot.

Im Irish so that probably explains why I don't mind it lol

 

Hopefully tomorrow is better. Gotta cut grass for Tuesdays pick up.  

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Tuesday will be variably cloudy and pleasant. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s to near 70° tomorrow and the middle 70s on Tuesday. Some showers or a thundershower are possible Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night as a warm front moves across the region.

By the middle of the week, it will turn warmer with temperatures again rising into the 80s. Thursday will likely be the warmest day of the week with the mercury rising into at least the middle 80s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around May 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

The SOI was +2.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.630 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal).

 

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

My neighbors are complete morons.  The rains came and dowsed their fire so they poured oil on the fire which then caused it to flare up and almost ended up burning themselves and their 5 year old kid who was dancing around the fire.

 

Your neighbors sound like morons

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Couldn't have one completely good day.... at least it was sunny for the big parade lol.

I hate our new Ireland climate.

CC summers mean cool and rainy for us.

and if it's not cool and rainy it's warm and rainy, but never truly hot.

They are most definitely not cool. We've been above normal pretty much every summer month for years. 

Rainier, yes

[JerseyWx]

I really hope I'm wrong, but it almost seems we're going into one of "those" summer patterns, in which we get rainy cool weekends with a small burst of heat midweek. 

This past week was a great example, as is the upcoming one.  Gets warm around Wednesday, lasts through Friday, then like clockwork it cools down and/or rains for the weekend.

[rclab]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

My neighbors are complete morons.  The rains came and dowsed their fire so they poured oil on the fire which then caused it to flare up and almost ended up burning themselves and their 5 year old kid who was dancing around the fire.

 

 

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

Your neighbors sound like morons

Liberty, as stated, this is actually frightening. As always …..

[bluewave]

Rainy patterns have been the only way that we have avoided heat during the summers since 2010. Closer to average summer temperatures have been associated with wet onshore flow patterns.

So it’s no surprise that the models have less heat going forward than earlier runs. But this introduces the risk of flooding when the systems or storms stall out. We have been seeing this pattern to our north since the start of May with 10”+.

The real risk is that some spot gets 10”+ of rain in a few hours rather than spread out over a month during the summer into fall. This is when the severe flooding occurs like Southern CT and Suffolk County saw last August. 

June 9 to 16 more onshore flow and showers than originally forecast leading to very comfortable June temperatures.

New run

 

Old run

 

[JustinRP37]

I am still not seeing any signs of true summer on the models. Now looks more average to just below average moving through June. Forecast for ticks and mosquitoes looks to remain extra abundant! 

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I am still not seeing any signs of true summer on the models. Now looks more average to just below average moving through June. Forecast for ticks and mosquitoes looks to remain extra abundant! 

If averages are 80 then having highs in the 70s are not exactly jacket weather.

It's still summer weather, just not 90 and humid. 

[Dark Star]

16 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I am still not seeing any signs of true summer on the models. Now looks more average to just below average moving through June. Forecast for ticks and mosquitoes looks to remain extra abundant! 

Seems like summer to me...

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, Sundog said:

If averages are 80 then having highs in the 70s are not exactly jacket weather.

It's still summer weather, just not 90 and humid. 

People's expectations are also too high. I think our average is still below 80F. We shouldn't be seeing 90+ daily weather. In fact we're averaging AN after first 8 days of June. 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, Sundog said:

If averages are 80 then having highs in the 70s are not exactly jacket weather.

It's still summer weather, just not 90 and humid. 

The main thing with the few cooler summer intervals since 2010 like we saw in 2023, 2017, and 2014, has been that none of them have been really cool like 2009 was. 

Going forward we’ll have to see if we dry out later in the month into July allowing the more typical 90° heat. But the lack of 90° heat in May was singnaling that a high end summer for 90° days like 2022 and 2010 when Newark had close to 50 days wasn’t as likely.  Since all our warmest summers have been preceded by heat in May.

 

 

[gravitylover]

Worst gardening season in a long time. Depleted soils, not many bees and pollinators and not nearly enough sun leading to slow growth is pretty depressing. I had 2 good strawberries so far but the birds got them before I did

[Brian5671]

61 here and windy/overcast...feels like October!   But the AC is off, so there's a win

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

If averages are 80 then having highs in the 70s are not exactly jacket weather.

It's still summer weather, just not 90 and humid. 

Not saying it is jacket weather. Nor am I saying it isn't summer. But the big forecasts for summer were for +2 to +3 for many of the major outlets for our area. I'm not seeing that is all I am saying. It is looking like "normal". There are plenty on these boards that were saying HHH for days and days and that just isn't in the mix right now. But we do need to try and dry out some for the weekends for seasonal work.

That said abundant moisture will keep our lab busy with above average ticks and mosquitoes. That is why I follow this stuff to forecast out what the season will look like. Right now it is well above average for ticks, but tick bites are below average. Likely having to do with weekend washouts keeping people away from hikes and what not. 

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Seems like summer to me...

Oh sure 70 and clouds every weekend and 62 with light rain this Monday morning screams summertime

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Not saying it is jacket weather. Nor am I saying it isn't summer. But the big forecasts for summer were for +2 to +3 for many of the major outlets for our area. I'm not seeing that is all I am saying. It is looking like "normal". There are plenty on these boards that were saying HHH for days and days and that just isn't in the mix right now. But we do need to try and dry out some for the weekends for seasonal work.

That said abundant moisture will keep our lab busy with above average ticks and mosquitoes. That is why I follow this stuff to forecast out what the season will look like. Right now it is well above average for ticks, but tick bites are below average. Likely having to do with weekend washouts keeping people away from hikes and what not. 

Interesting I work outdoors a d near wooded areas but not one tick on me yet this year...that is know about

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

People's expectations are also too high. I think our average is still below 80F. We shouldn't be seeing 90+ daily weather. In fact we're averaging AN after first 8 days of June. 

This is certainly the case for many, but definitely not for me. I'm in the very northern part of the NYC Metro. What is doing it I think is the lack of sunshine for long stretches at a time. That is NOT normal for June across any part of our subforum. Also, seeing many days in the future like today which will be a -11 for my area. In today's climate and at this time of the year, that is pretty big to be doing routinely. There are 3 days on models that are at or above normal for my area over the next 14 days. That is a far cry from what many were forecasting this year. 

[JustinRP37]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

Interesting I work outdoors a d near wooded areas but not one tick on me yet this year...that is know about

Well now you have to go knock on wood. NJ is interesting though as the Asian longhorned tick is really taking over. 

[winterwarlock]

We are paying for the warmth we had last October/November.

 

Maybe the seasons are just shifting and Septembers will be warmer than Junes

[winterwarlock]

Just now, JustinRP37 said:

Well now you have to go knock on wood. NJ is interesting though as the Asian longhorned tick is really taking over. 

What does that look like

[JustinRP37]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

What does that look like

They are more brown than the blacklegged tick and were originally discovered in the US in NJ. See https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/cattle/ticks/asian-longhorned. The scary thing about them is their population has exploded because they can reproduce via parthenogenesis which is wild for a tick.  

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

People's expectations are also too high. I think our average is still below 80F. We shouldn't be seeing 90+ daily weather. In fact we're averaging AN after first 8 days of June. 

How many beach weekends?  Zero

We only have 15 between Memorial and Labor Days and 3 already gone with the 4th looking the worst yet. 

How many true beach days at all? Last week a couple but it was actually significantly cooler there than inland

 

We get 3 this week Wednesday through Friday but might be another week before the next one

 

Before you blink its over...in 2 weeks we will have posts about days getting shorter