Winter 2025-26

[mitchnick]

Remember.  The Euro is giving us 3 month averages on each forecast map, so keep that in mind when looking at the forecasts. The trend is what you need to consider as well as actual numbers.

[WxUSAF]

I think he’s commented before on why this pattern seems to be coming more common. But currently another bite at this Apple seems inbound for 25-26.

[psuhoffman]

On 6/28/2025 at 12:56 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe something in between the two is better. Of course we only need a 2 week pattern to possibly get average snowfall for the year, with the Atlantic Ocean right there. I do think there is a weak: Summer +NAO/following Winter -EPO correlation in play.. but the EPO usually only lasts in 7-12 day cycles, so maybe a warmer general Winter, with some smaller timeframes of opportunity? 

We can always hope for something like 1999-2000 when 90% of the winter was a hopeless garbage pattern but we got a 10 day window and scored multiple snowstorms.  It takes epic good luck though. It’s always possible though.  

[psuhoffman]

On 6/30/2025 at 5:17 PM, Bob Chill said:

We've missed a lot of typical events since. It's that simple. Big events were never that common here even in the 70s and 80s. We've had more big events in the last 15 years than we did in the 25+ before that. The problem in the last 10 years (imo only) is typical or "normal" event frequency.

Weather around the world is more volatile in all seasons than I've ever seen. Feast or famine is everywhere. Last winter had the temps but when it came down to when it mattered things had a real hard time working out. A handful of years in the last 10 were plain warm and that's always a dagger but even the good looks didn't produce like many years further back in time. 

It's a combination of a lot of things and not one explanation.  In my eyes I'm seeing fewer cold periods and the ones that do come along are either short lived or the depth of cold is weak. Look at NC... their problems are similar but amplified. The best advice is to approach each winter expecting the same problems that have plagued us for a decade and be thankful for things that work out. Big storms will almost certainly happen again but active snowy winters with lots of events will require more extreme (and rare) longwave patterns 

 

 

I agree with the general tone of your posts.
 

but last winter was also typical of cold dry Nina’s prior to 2016. 2008-2009 was one of my top analogs and it ended up a really close match in reality. If the PDO relaxes as it did last year we might so marginally better than the typical 2017-2024 period of crap. But marginally because the background pattern drivers aren’t really good even in a pre 2017 era. We got low snow winters back then too lol. 
 

My gut says the last 8 years was a nadir and even in a lower new normal we will look back on it as a low point. But the next high snow tide isn’t likely to be as good as the last just like the last snowy period in the 2000s wasn’t as snowy as the late 1950s-1960s.  The exception will be the random fluke anomaly events that will happen. And sure line up everything and another 2010 can even happen. But there will be longer stretches of snowless dreg in between those positive anomalies. 

[psuhoffman]

This isn’t that complicated. It’s getting warmer. And no I don’t care if you can’t handle that fact emotionally. Either because you love snow so much or because you’ve tied your identity to rejecting facts that are inconvenient to your preferences. The thermometer DGAF about your feelings. 
 

Regression studies of snowfall are somewhat flawed imo because they apply increased temps to historical storms. Storms tracks depend on thermal boundaries so warmer temps mean the storms aren’t even in the same places anymore.  
 

But let’s simplify this. If it’s warmer in general meaning on the average storm tracks will shift north…well that means less snow for us because as you go south from here at similar elevations snowfall goes down. It’s that simple. The climate zones are shifting north with the temps. So what was once normal snow for somewhere in south or Central VA 30 years ago is now DC. 
 

Yes there will continue to be snowier and less snowy cycles and winters and there will be occasional big storms but the larger trend is really clear.