2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[dailylurker]

Gfs is a snooze fest. Congrats NC. It's interesting how boring our climate is here lol. We excel at boring stuff like clouds, wind, drizzle, humidity, heat. 

[stormtracker]

8 hours ago, bncho said:

february 19-20 debacle lol

This is worthy of a ban.  I’m STILL traumatized by that one. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

This is worthy of a ban.  I’m STILL traumatized by that one. 

I’m thankful I’ve got a goldfish memory because I’ve already forgot. Is that the one that hit Florida?

[George BM]

Joaquin of 2015 is the one for me.

[George BM]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m thankful I’ve got a goldfish memory because I’ve already forgot. Is that the one that hit Florida?

Virginia Beach.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, George BM said:

Virginia Beach.

Ah, rings a bell. I recall it underperforming a bit and angering Richmond too, which made me feel better that others were frustrated (no specific Richmond hate). If I’m getting the details mixed up don’t tell me lol

Hopefully we’re tracking something wintry soon

[H2O]

Every storm since winter have been like the Dallas cowboys. All pretty and flashy but total frauds in reality. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z tracks 

[JenkinsJinkies]

We’ll be lucky if we get half an inch and even that is starting to look overly optimistic. Walk backs beget further walk backs.

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

We’ll be lucky if we get half an inch and even that is starting to look overly optimistic. Walk backs beget further walk backs.

I think we need to specify you’re talking about Imelda, not tomorrow’s rain. And the details about Imelda have never in the faintest way approached “locked in” where anything is being walked back. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think we need to specify you’re talking about Imelda, not tomorrow’s rain. And the details about Imelda have never in the faintest way approached “locked in” where anything is being walked back. 

Euro range to the start of October so it’s about Imelda mostly. If you look at the euro runs it’s been getting walked back further and further since yesterday morning. This is coupled with major forecasters and prominent users advertising a wet pattern for this upcoming week that, with these walk backs, is now in jeopardy. Normally I don’t harp on rain as hardly as snow but it’s fall in a budding Niña, there’s a real possibility that after this there’s nothing for quite some time. Given our luck we could make a run at last year’s rainless record again this year since September seems to be a repeat of last year.

[Scraff]

2 hours ago, H2O said:

Every storm since winter have been like the Dallas cowboys. All pretty and flashy but total frauds in reality. 

As a Cowboys fan, I approve of this message. 

[WxWatcher007]

Meanwhile, Humberto is likely a major already. It just exploded in intensity. 

[WxWatcher007]

The Canadian, as usual, is funky.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

As a Cowboys fan, I approve of this message. 

A lot of yall are really trying to get banned.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Canadian, as usual, is funky.

What are you talking aboot? 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What are you talking aboot? 

The Canadian keeps future Imelda offshore, but the massive ridge over the top blocks its escape and runs it up the coast. 

Funky. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

The Canadian keeps future Imelda offshore, but the massive ridge over the top blocks its escape and runs it up the coast. 

Funky. 

So we fail upwards then.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Canadian keeps future Imelda offshore, but the massive ridge over the top blocks its escape and runs it up the coast. 

Funky. 

weird as hell

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Canadian keeps future Imelda offshore, but the massive ridge over the top blocks its escape and runs it up the coast. 

Funky. 

I'd take that 

[WxUSAF]

3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Euro range to the start of October so it’s about Imelda mostly. If you look at the euro runs it’s been getting walked back further and further since yesterday morning. This is coupled with major forecasters and prominent users advertising a wet pattern for this upcoming week that, with these walk backs, is now in jeopardy. Normally I don’t harp on rain as hardly as snow but it’s fall in a budding Niña, there’s a real possibility that after this there’s nothing for quite some time. Given our luck we could make a run at last year’s rainless record again this year since September seems to be a repeat of last year.

I mean, this is basically doing a @Ji where the D9 blizzard run becomes the floor and anything less is a bust. 

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

A lot of yall are really trying to get banned.

Wait. Hear me out. Ahhh nevermind. It’s not worth explaining. Ban if you must, but please reinstate me for our first winter storm failure. 

[yoda]

DCA 2.5" QPF on the 12z EPS mean through next 10 days

[bncho]

16 hours ago, bncho said:

february 19-20 debacle lol

october 1-4 miracle lol

[WxWatcher007]

With Humberto rapidly intensifying today, another MH is on the board. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (3)
Hurricanes: 6 (2)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (2)

Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH)

[Weather Will]

NHC 

[bncho]

18z GFS says that Imelda stalls before moving east

[WxWatcher007]

It would be an all time win for the second tier models.