Paleocene Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM It's already fun to track the structure of Erin visually: looking to really shape up over the next day or two. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Tuesday at 03:09 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 03:09 PM Continuing to move south of forecast 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Tuesday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:07 PM At least we have a 50/50 low 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted Tuesday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:13 PM 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Continuing to move south of forecast Yeah. If it stays weak and disorganized. It’s going be on the southern end of the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Tuesday at 06:21 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:21 PM 13 minutes ago, Amped said: At least we have a 50/50 low Never to be found in winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM 8 minutes ago, weatherCCB said: Yeah. If it stays weak and disorganized. It’s going be on the southern end of the cone. I’m not sure it makes a difference at the end of the day with the Atlantic ridge being weakened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 09:17 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:17 AM WB OZ ensemble tracks from the major models continue to keep Erin well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 04:01 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 04:01 PM It would require a dramatic shift for this to threaten the US east coast. It’s pretty much gone at this point. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Wednesday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:43 PM 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: It would require a dramatic shift for this to threaten the US east coast. It’s pretty much gone at this point. 12Z Euro says it aint gone just yet. Still a long shot though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Wednesday at 06:54 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:54 PM 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: It would require a dramatic shift for this to threaten the US east coast. It’s pretty much gone at this point. Afternoon run of the Euro would make me sweat a bit if I'm a coastal resident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 07:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:10 PM WB 12Z EPS did tick westward at 12Z compared to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 07:19 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 07:19 PM Long shot but yeah, still worth watching. The UL pattern over Canada is critical to how close this gets. Note how much less aggressive the trough is in SE Canada. That has a ripple effect across the steering pattern players. 00z 12z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:43 PM WB 18Z ICON is west of 12Z and high pressure is holding to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Wednesday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:48 PM 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z ICON is west of 12Z and high pressure is holding to the North. Is this going to Dorian us and tease us while stalling in the Bahamas before ultimately backtracking. i wonder if Trump will do another sharpie map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 11:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:11 PM WB 18Z GEFS is still off the coast. As long as the trough along the east coast has a positive tilt, it is not coming ashore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Thursday at 03:13 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 03:13 PM New invest in the Gulf, with time as a limiting factor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Thursday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:03 PM WB 12Z ensemble tracks from the GFS, EURO, and Canadian. Most members well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted yesterday at 12:00 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:00 AM Literally … taking center stage in Thursday evening image. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 03:26 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:26 AM 3 hours ago, Herb@MAWS said: Literally … taking center stage in Thursday evening image. Man I haven’t seen that style loop in ages 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 05:03 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:03 PM Finally found a way to make a loop of SAL 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Looks like Erin made a small jog SW in latest image Now 120mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Just upgraded to cat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Eyewall really contracting in the visible . Might make a run at cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago 21 minutes ago, weatherCCB said: Eyewall really contracting in the visible . Might make a run at cat 5 If it can avoid an ERC. Exceptional pressure falls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: If it can avoid an ERC. Exceptional pressure falls I would be surprised if this did not make a cat 5 intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Erin went from tropical storm to Cat 4 hurricane in 24 hours ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Cat 5 WTNT65 KNHC 161520 TCUAT5 Hurricane Erin Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1120 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near 917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 1120 AM AST...1520 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...255 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago What a beast. That perfect eye on the San Juan radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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