2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[Paleocene]

It's already fun to track the structure of Erin visually: looking to really shape up over the next day or two.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[WxWatcher007]

Continuing to move south of forecast

[Amped]

At least we have a 50/50 low

[weatherCCB]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Continuing to move south of forecast

Yeah. If it stays weak and disorganized.  It’s going be on the southern end of the cone.

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, Amped said:

At least we have a 50/50 low

Never to be found in winter  

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

Yeah. If it stays weak and disorganized.  It’s going be on the southern end of the cone.

I’m not sure it makes a difference at the end of the day with the Atlantic ridge being weakened. 

[Weather Will]

WB OZ ensemble tracks from the major models continue to keep Erin well off the coast.

[WxWatcher007]

It would require a dramatic shift for this to threaten the US east coast. It’s pretty much gone at this point. 

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It would require a dramatic shift for this to threaten the US east coast. It’s pretty much gone at this point. 

12Z Euro says  it aint  gone  just  yet. Still a  long shot though

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It would require a dramatic shift for this to threaten the US east coast. It’s pretty much gone at this point. 

Afternoon run of the Euro would make me sweat a bit if I'm a coastal resident.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS did tick westward at 12Z compared to 0Z.

 

[WxWatcher007]

Long shot but yeah, still worth watching. The UL pattern over Canada is critical to how close this gets. Note how much less aggressive the trough is in SE Canada. That has a ripple effect across the steering pattern players. 

00z

 

12z

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z ICON is west of 12Z and high pressure is holding to the North.

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z ICON is west of 12Z and high pressure is holding to the North.

Is this going to Dorian us and tease us while stalling in the Bahamas before ultimately backtracking.

 

i wonder if Trump will do another sharpie map?

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS is still off the coast. As long as the trough along the east coast has a positive tilt, it is not coming ashore.

[WxWatcher007]

New invest in the Gulf, with time as a limiting factor. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z ensemble tracks from the GFS, EURO, and Canadian.  Most members well off the coast.