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Observations for the Christmas Storm II


Isopycnic

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Some of the heaviest flow snow I've ever seen here. If it's flow snow. Ratios are still low and wind is not a problem It's snowed at a rate on almost an inch per hour for the last 5 hour. I'm now up to 13 inches. If the "real" NWFS is not suppose to get cranking until this evening there will be areas up here that will get 2 feet easily, me included.

Any other obs from you mountain peeps????

Hey snojoe, glad to see another mtn man on here. We got 8 so far and its started back up. Wind is a problem here. Really startin to gust. From Radar looks more headed this way from WV.

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Wow. Just wow. We got about 7 inches here in Northeast Winston-Salem. I am loving the reports of 10 inches in Fayetteville, 12.5 inches in Rocky Mount, 11 inches in Wilson, and 10 inches in Knightdale. Much/Most of Eastern North Carolina now has surpassed their seasonal snow average, and it's just December! Likewise, most of central NC is at or somewhat above its seasonable snowfall average. What a great La Nina Winter!

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Blustery on mount Mitchell:

Current conditions at MITC as of Sunday, December 26th, 2010 @ 4:53 PM EST (31 mins ago)Temperature:3.9 °F (-15.6 °C)Dew point:calculated at -0.7 °F (-18.2 °C) Relative humidity: 81%Wind:Northwest (300°) at 45 mph with gusts of 56 mphPressure:790.7 mb (23.35 inHg) station pressure

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Let me add that Winston-Salem did a great job of plowing its streets this time. By mid morning, snow plows had cleared most residential streets and major roads were largely clear and clean. Likewise, citizens and businesses were out early shoveling snow and making sure sidewalks and parking lots were clear. An impressive snow-clearing operation in Winston-Salem all around!

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AVL Airport at 9.5 for the event. YTD snowfall of 13.3 there more than this time last year. (they were on the low end of the big December storm last year, but still...) I am 14.5 MTD.

SNOWFALL (IN)

TODAY 3.0 R 1.3 1917 0.1 2.9 0.0

MONTH TO DATE 13.3 1.3 12.0 10.1

SINCE DEC 1 13.3 1.3 12.0 10.1

SINCE JUL 1 13.3 1.7 11.6 10.1

SNOW DEPTH 9

What is the seasonal average at AVL?

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Still getting light to at times moderate flurries/-sn. Some of the snow had melted enough to slide off one of the cars, and now as we're approaching dusk, it's starting to coat the car surface again with a light dusting. Radar looks good for another couple hours worth... need 9 tenths to cross the magic 12" mark.

just wow!

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Unless we get a measurable amount from this batch of flurries/light snow that's coming through now, my final total is 12 inches here in downtown Wilson - I feel like that's fairly accurate, and maybe even a little low (but only maybe by 0.5 inch), as the winds were fairly gusty for a while during our last major band and it blew around some and got drifty in spots.

Just talked to my parents in the northwestern part of Pitt County a few minutes ago, and they said they were in the middle of a band of pretty heavy snow and had gotten probably another inch on top of the nearly 9 inches they got from the main part of the storm.

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My drive into Cary from Greenville, SC was very smooth. Just amazing to drive 250miles through SC and NC and not see one bare patch of ground!! The storm was great for the the Carolinas. Once we hit Orange County it looked like a winter wonderland...doesn't look like the sun came out much east of Orange County. The trees were caked in snow. Glad it didn't come down much more or else the power may have gone out.

Looks like my house got about 5-7"...can't really tell due to compaction.

Congrats all!

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Robert, is this typical flow snow yet? It doesn't seem like it. Low ratios and heavy, heavy rates. Something's weird about this stuff falling now. Medium to small flakes but as thick as fog.

after looking at this a little more, it looks like a big deal, and esp. for the areas west of AVL and southwest, more than usual. The winds are more northerly than nw by a slight margin thanks to the position of the noreaster and the next sharp ridge poking already in the plains, so this is not a typical nw flow event because its an extreme amplitude nw flow event, rather than the broad trough one. Don't see this very much, so I don' t know for sure how long it lasts. I was swamped with other stuff until now and never really got around to looking at this,sorry. But yeah it should be a good one, already the moisture is shown in streamers on MRX radar and GSP shows breaking over the mountains , so I know its a doozy up there. The 850 moisture lingers well for 30 hours solid, then tapers north, so you're (Joe) looking at a pretty long stretch and with the super fast rates and non stop lift it should be on the high end of your events, over 12". I'm more concerned a little more south in the chain where it bows more orthogonal to the flow near Leconte and Clingmans area, this could be a bigger than usual for them. Also probably getting in Asheville. Good luck, hope you pass whatever record you haven't passed yet.:huh:

15.4. So almost there. Of course, last year's 40 and another possible above average season could start to bring that up.

Good to see the Asheville are finally racking on the snow totals the last 2 seasons. I remember well the previous what, 7 years or so where they were missing out and other places kept getting hit, and I know it must be really frustratiing to see that. When I l was there, it never snowed very much, never saw a big event, or anything over 4". I've got that here. The thunderstorms were great however. I think the good news is with the return of these Gulf lows, it will get better. We've had a dearth of gulf events, but lately they've trended back somewhat. Guess we're lucky in this blocking nina, otherwise, i'm sure they would all be lakes cutters. If the NAO 30 year cycle began last year, we're probably in for a period like the late 50s to early 80's, which seems "normal" to me, LOL.

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Bill, you in avery tonight?

stay warm if you are!

nwsf setting up. this was from 5:45pm

...GRAHAM COUNTY...

12 W ROBBINSVILLE 11.0 1003 AM 12/26 HEAVY SNOW. 4000 FEET

...MACON COUNTY...

10 N FRANKLIN 10.0 1035 AM 12/26 MODERATE SNOWFALL.

AVERY COUNTY...

LINVILLE 10.0 507 PM 12/26 16 DEGEES AT 3700 FT

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awesome! your first winter/snow forecast...and it was on christmas, in georgia lol

That has to be odds of about a billion to one lol

Skies have cleared here and down to 26. Going to wake up early and get some pics and enjoy a sunrise over a snow pack. And of course by early afternoon I'll be getting depressed it's all melting :(

Anywho, I happened to catch david chandley on channel 2 this evening and couldn't help but laugh at the terrible snow map he showed. He showed my location with an inch or something I think, as well as most of the area which is just absurd. EDIT: Check out the storm reports I just posted in the storm thread.

Was trying to find a pic of that map on wsb's site and I ran across this..more greatness from wsb. I know they weren't alone in forecasting a warm and dry winter but I couldn't help but laugh considering what our winter has been like so far.

http://www.wsbtv.com/weather/25463957/detail.html

Warmer, Drier Winter Expected

SUBMIT: Your Weather Photos - Image From Djuana Hamner

Djuana Hamner

Posted: 11:37 am EDT October 21, 2010Updated: 11:45 am EDT October 21, 2010

ATLANTA -- Severe Weather Team 2 meteorologists say they agree with the officials at NOAA who say metro Atlantans can expect a warmer and drier than average winter.

Severe Weather Team 2 meteorologist David Chandley said the prediction shouldn't fool metro residents. "We will still have cold snaps and we will always have the threat of snow and ice, but on average our winter will be warmer and driver than average," he said.

The NOAA said a moderate to strong La Niña will be the dominant climate factor influencing weather across most of the U.S. this winter.

La Niña is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, unlike El Niño which is associated with warmer than normal water temperatures. Both of these climate phenomena, which typically occur every 2-5 years, influence weather patterns throughout the world and often lead to extreme weather events. Last winter’s El Niño contributed to record-breaking rain and snowfall leading to severe flooding in some parts of the country, with record heat and drought in other parts of the country. Although La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, it also has the potential to bring weather extremes to parts of the nation.

“La Niña is in place and will strengthen and persist through the winter months, giving us a better understanding of what to expect between December and February,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “This is a good time for people to review the outlook and begin preparing for what winter may have in store.”

“Other climate factors will play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”

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If I am reading correctly, CLT only recorded 1.9" of snow from this episode. If this is correct, it is one of the lowest totals in all of the state.

This is what I got off GSP website: (this is the whole event total)

GSP 1.9"

CLT 1.9"

AVL 9.5"

I feel lucky with my 4". Upstate to immediate southern /sw piedmont of NC got the low end. If you watch the 36 hour radar loop, you can see what happens to the precip entering said region. Plus we dealt with low rates when we did turn over, after that terrible warm bubble collapsed.

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after looking at this a little more, it looks like a big deal, and esp. for the areas west of AVL and southwest, more than usual. The winds are more northerly than nw by a slight margin thanks to the position of the noreaster and the next sharp ridge poking already in the plains, so this is not a typical nw flow event because its an extreme amplitude nw flow event, rather than the broad trough one. Don't see this very much, so I don' t know for sure how long it lasts. I was swamped with other stuff until now and never really got around to looking at this,sorry. But yeah it should be a good one, already the moisture is shown in streamers on MRX radar and GSP shows breaking over the mountains , so I know its a doozy up there. The 850 moisture lingers well for 30 hours solid, then tapers north, so you're (Joe) looking at a pretty long stretch and with the super fast rates and non stop lift it should be on the high end of your events, over 12". I'm more concerned a little more south in the chain where it bows more orthogonal to the flow near Leconte and Clingmans area, this could be a bigger than usual for them. Also probably getting in Asheville. Good luck, hope you pass whatever record you haven't passed yet.:huh:

Good to see the Asheville are finally racking on the snow totals the last 2 seasons. I remember well the previous what, 7 years or so where they were missing out and other places kept getting hit, and I know it must be really frustratiing to see that. When I l was there, it never snowed very much, never saw a big event, or anything over 4". I've got that here. The thunderstorms were great however. I think the good news is with the return of these Gulf lows, it will get better. We've had a dearth of gulf events, but lately they've trended back somewhat. Guess we're lucky in this blocking nina, otherwise, i'm sure they would all be lakes cutters. If the NAO 30 year cycle began last year, we're probably in for a period like the late 50s to early 80's, which seems "normal" to me, LOL.

Foot, Would like to get your thoughts on Weaverville tonight? We seem to do better when the wind is NW vs N. Its is still snowing here but less in the last 4 hrs or so. Asheville has been a tough place since about 2000. Have watched many storms miss us and hit elsewhere. It is nice to get back in the swing of things. I have had more snow in Dec. 2009 & Dec. 2010 than in 06,07, and 08 combined.

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Foot, Would like to get your thoughts on Weaverville tonight? We seem to do better when the wind is NW vs N. Its is still snowing here but less in the last 4 hrs or so. Asheville has been a tough place since about 2000. Have watched many storms miss us and hit elsewhere. It is nice to get back in the swing of things. I have had more snow in Dec. 2009 & Dec. 2010 than in 06,07, and 08 combined.

I'm no expert on upslope, but if Weaverville does best with nw flow, this looks more like notherly initially. Theres a streamer right now in eastern Buncombe that is flowing over Greer down to just west of Columbia, but it dies out over Greer due to downslope, then actually reforms in the lower Upstate.Thats very impressive. Occasionally there's returns over me, so flurries are probably scattered here. When it switches tomorrow more nw, it should increase for you. I bet its really piling up over Haywood and Swain right now.

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