CheeselandSkies Posted Monday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:55 PM Wednesday looks potentially interesting, but that could just be me NAM wishcasting again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted Tuesday at 10:26 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:26 AM 16 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Wednesday looks potentially interesting, but that could just be me NAM wishcasting again. Slight risk out. A state line MCV setup with legs this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Tuesday at 11:15 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:15 AM 47 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Slight risk out. A state line MCV setup with legs this time? 0z run was hot with that mcv, 6z a miss north, hoping for the best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted Tuesday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:27 PM 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: 0z run was hot with that mcv, 6z a miss north, hoping for the best A miss north for you is a hit for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Tuesday at 01:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:44 PM hrrr p rocking for u 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Tuesday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:08 PM 12z guidance bit of a mixed back but looks decent, at least north of 88 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted Tuesday at 06:46 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:46 PM tomorrow reminds me of last thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Tuesday at 07:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:45 PM would take it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted Tuesday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:52 PM Bullshit again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted Tuesday at 09:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:17 PM Popups east of 131. WI complex shits the bed over the lake. More popups east of 131. Then it’s all whiffing south along I-80. Maybe I-94 gets some stratiform scraps. I-96 west of 131 desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted Tuesday at 10:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:24 PM Sigma model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted Tuesday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:59 PM Unless stuff kicks off somewhat early we may be a bit too far west for this one. Gonna be close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted yesterday at 12:20 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:20 AM Assuming that complex currently in southeastern South Dakota is the source for our MCV? Looks maybe a tad further north than anticipated based on the placement of today's Enhanced risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted yesterday at 12:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:45 PM Does the summer trend continue or does this one finally bring rain? GRR isn't taking sides on this one. Quote The uncertainty comes with what shape is the MCV/upper wave in as it arrives. The further north over our area, the better the forcing from the wave is expected, but instability is less. As you head south, instability is the highest, but forcing is the least. It really ends up being how far south the sufficient forcing will be to maintain storms over the area. That is the million dollar question, and we will continue to monitor the latest trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted yesterday at 03:51 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:51 PM 2 hours ago, WestMichigan said: Does the summer trend continue or does this one finally bring rain? GRR isn't taking sides on this one. Initiation is farther east, but the wave itself is taking a more northerly track. There is more juice to work with this time with a more extensive pool of mid-70s dewpoints. Severe seems pretty iffy, but maybe a broken tail or secondary MCV at least gives rain farther south. Prayers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted yesterday at 05:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:52 PM string of lil guys on the way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted yesterday at 05:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:53 PM Things starting off with a bang I guess. Got a few TOR warnings and a PDS warning in Wisconsin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted yesterday at 07:32 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:32 PM Confirmed very small and brief "tornado" in southern IN this morning. I'm a dunce. I had never heard of an EFU rating lol. https://www.weather.gov/ind/July16thTOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted yesterday at 09:11 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 09:11 PM A line of t’storms/severe t’storms just moved through a short time ago, both at home and here at ORD.Watched it on cam when it hit home, and looked visually liked 50MPH+ peak wind gusts.Here at ORD the ASOS wind sensor went down, so had to use back-up airfield sensors, which had a peak wind gust of 67MPH. But, honestly, it looked nothing close to that here at the office.Here’s a shot as the activity was moving in… 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted yesterday at 09:18 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:18 PM All the good stuff happened while I was stuck at work. If this event had waited until around 21Z (like CAMS were suggesting) I would have been right on it. By the time I got off at 18Z, ran home and grabbed my cameras everything was either crapping out or out of reach. Went for the one that had had a nice hook in Green County, it looked like trash when I finally got to it but stuck with it and it eventually went tornado-warned again near Cambridge. Got a brief view of an updraft base with a clear slot near Lake Mills, but that was about it. Tired of always missing everything in my backyard. It's always either too early in the day (you'd think getting off at 1PM you'd have plenty of time to catch a tornado 40 minutes from home), or happens way out of season/doesn't look good enough to go out (2/8/24). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted yesterday at 09:26 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:26 PM Pretty lame as far as storms go. 1/10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Really sad if 3000 j/kg goes completely to waste here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: All the good stuff happened while I was stuck at work. If this event had waited until around 21Z (like CAMS were suggesting) I would have been right on it. By the time I got off at 18Z, ran home and grabbed my cameras everything was either crapping out or out of reach. Went for the one that had had a nice hook in Green County, it looked like trash when I finally got to it but stuck with it and it eventually went tornado-warned again near Cambridge. Got a brief view of an updraft base with a clear slot near Lake Mills, but that was about it. Tired of always missing everything in my backyard. It's always either too early in the day (you'd think getting off at 1PM you'd have plenty of time to catch a tornado 40 minutes from home), or happens way out of season/doesn't look good enough to go out (2/8/24). Ahh that sucks! Saw the radar/reports when I got off work and was thinking you probably scored today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 6 (or more) tornadoes today in Wisconsin, with somewhat marginal shear 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Storms are weak here. Gusted to maybe 30-35. Not much rain. Some low rumbles. On to Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 5 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Storms are weak here. Gusted to maybe 30-35. Not much rain. Some low rumbles. On to Saturday. Shear and good forcing beats CAPE every time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago About 3/4” of much needed rain so I’m not complaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Got screwed again with the rain. Line falls apart over the lake then redevelops east of me. I’ve never seen the lake shadow lock in this hard all summer long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago GRR In addition, at the MCV rotates east into Michigan we will see our deep layer shear increase. Moisture (surface dew points in the 70s), instability (MUCAPE of 2,000-3,000 j/kg) and lift via the MCV along with shear will all be in place this evening. We agree with the slight risk area via SPC given the parameter space this evening. The HREF 4 hour reflectivity max tells the story quite well, in that our diurnal convection will fade into the evening and the focus will shift to the incoming line. The lake is quite warm and we do not expect a decrease in intensity as the lake may actually give the convection as boost. The lift via the MCV will help storms as well. So, bottom line...expecting a line of storms this evening with wind being the main threat. An isolated tornado like what has happened already this afternoon in Wisconsin is certainly possible later this evening in a QLCS mode in areas where flow backs to the southeast or east ahead of the line. Showers and storms sweep out of the CWA by 2am-3am. HREF was wrong. The lake always seems to kill storms during peak heating hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago My brief look at the remnants of the previously tornado-warned updraft base near Lake Mills. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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