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2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion


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Does the summer trend continue or does this one finally bring rain?  GRR isn't taking sides on this one.

 

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The uncertainty comes with what shape is the MCV/upper wave in as it
arrives. The further north over our area, the better the forcing
from the wave is expected, but instability is less. As you head
south, instability is the highest, but forcing is the least. It
really ends up being how far south the sufficient forcing will be to
maintain storms over the area. That is the million dollar question,
and we will continue to monitor the latest trends.

 

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2 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Does the summer trend continue or does this one finally bring rain?  GRR isn't taking sides on this one.

 

 

Initiation is farther east, but the wave itself is taking a more northerly track.  There is more juice to work with this time with a more extensive pool of mid-70s dewpoints.  Severe seems pretty iffy, but maybe a broken tail or secondary MCV at least gives rain farther south.  Prayers.

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A line of t’storms/severe t’storms just moved through a short time ago, both at home and here at ORD.

Watched it on cam when it hit home, and looked visually liked 50MPH+ peak wind gusts.

Here at ORD the ASOS wind sensor went down, so had to use back-up airfield sensors, which had a peak wind gust of 67MPH. But, honestly, it looked nothing close to that here at the office.

Here’s a shot as the activity was moving in…

f17ec86734fd037adbb74cfc67a7bfc5.jpg

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All the good stuff happened while I was stuck at work. If this event had waited until around 21Z (like CAMS were suggesting) I would have been right on it. By the time I got off at 18Z, ran home and grabbed my cameras everything was either crapping out or out of reach. Went for the one that had had a nice hook in Green County, it looked like trash when I finally got to it but stuck with it and it eventually went tornado-warned again near Cambridge. Got a brief view of an updraft base with a clear slot near Lake Mills, but that was about it.

Tired of always missing everything in my backyard. It's always either too early in the day (you'd think getting off at 1PM you'd have plenty of time to catch a tornado 40 minutes from home), or happens way out of season/doesn't look good enough to go out (2/8/24).

 

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

All the good stuff happened while I was stuck at work. If this event had waited until around 21Z (like CAMS were suggesting) I would have been right on it. By the time I got off at 18Z, ran home and grabbed my cameras everything was either crapping out or out of reach. Went for the one that had had a nice hook in Green County, it looked like trash when I finally got to it but stuck with it and it eventually went tornado-warned again near Cambridge. Got a brief view of an updraft base with a clear slot near Lake Mills, but that was about it.

Tired of always missing everything in my backyard. It's always either too early in the day (you'd think getting off at 1PM you'd have plenty of time to catch a tornado 40 minutes from home), or happens way out of season/doesn't look good enough to go out (2/8/24).

 

Ahh that sucks!  Saw the radar/reports when I got off work and was thinking you probably scored today.  

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GRR

In addition, at the MCV rotates east into Michigan we will see our
deep layer shear increase. Moisture (surface dew points in the
70s), instability (MUCAPE of 2,000-3,000 j/kg) and lift via the
MCV along with shear will all be in place this evening. We agree
with the slight risk area via SPC given the parameter space this
evening. The HREF 4 hour reflectivity max tells the story quite
well, in that our diurnal convection will fade into the evening
and the focus will shift to the incoming line. The lake is quite
warm and we do not expect a decrease in intensity as the lake may
actually give the convection as boost. The lift via the MCV will
help storms as well. So, bottom line...expecting a line of storms
this evening with wind being the main threat. An isolated tornado
like what has happened already this afternoon in Wisconsin is
certainly possible later this evening in a QLCS mode in areas
where flow backs to the southeast or east ahead of the line.
Showers and storms sweep out of the CWA by 2am-3am.

HREF was wrong.  The lake always seems to kill storms during peak heating hours.

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