2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion

[CheeselandSkies]

Wednesday looks potentially interesting, but that could just be me NAM wishcasting again.

[CheeselandSkies]

16 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Wednesday looks potentially interesting, but that could just be me NAM wishcasting again.

Slight risk out. A state line MCV setup with legs this time?

[A-L-E-K]

47 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Slight risk out. A state line MCV setup with legs this time?

0z run was hot with that mcv, 6z a miss north, hoping for the best

 

[CheeselandSkies]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

0z run was hot with that mcv, 6z a miss north, hoping for the best

 

A miss north for you is a hit for me.

[A-L-E-K]

hrrr p rocking for u

[A-L-E-K]

12z guidance bit of a mixed back but looks decent, at least north of 88

[Chicago Storm]

tomorrow reminds me of last thursday.

[A-L-E-K]

would take it

[frostfern]

Bullshit again.  

[frostfern]

Popups east of 131. WI complex shits the bed over the lake.  More popups east of 131.  Then it’s all whiffing south along I-80.  Maybe I-94 gets some stratiform scraps.  I-96 west of 131 desert.

[Malacka11]

Sigma model

[cyclone77]

Unless stuff kicks off somewhat early we may be a bit too far west for this one.  Gonna be close.

[CheeselandSkies]

Assuming that complex currently in southeastern South Dakota is the source for our MCV? Looks maybe a tad further north than anticipated based on the placement of today's Enhanced risk.