2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

trash outlook.

not supported by cams or the environment.

[hawkeye_wx]

First tornado watch of the season (I think) has been issued for Cedar Rapids.

[Chicago Storm]

trash outlook.

not supported by cams or the environment.

i should say, the enhanced is fine, it’s the placement that is horrid. way too far SE/E.

there shouldn’t be a slight in the metro, let alone an enhanced nosing in.

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

i should say, the enhanced is fine, it’s the placement that is horrid. way too far SE/E.

there shouldn’t be a slight in the metro, let alone an enhanced nosing in.

They’re going by instability alone and expecting upscale growth to drive a squall line east I guess.  There’s not much westerly shear component to support it.  Definitely not way after dark.  

If not a squall line, maybe they anticipate isolated supercells along the warm front into the night.  Nowhere near widespread enough to warrant an enhanced risk towards Chicago though.

[Chicago Storm]

paging hawkeye.

[hawkeye_wx]

Nothing severe here, and very little, weak, thunder like always, but the wind is gusty and the rain is torrential.  I've received an inch in only 15 minutes.  I may exceed 2" based on radar.

Radar shows a big eastward surge just north of Cedar Rapids.  There is likely stronger wind up there.

[A-L-E-K]

Gonna be a great evening for a bike ride along the lakefront with the light show later

[ILSNOW]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 508
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   450 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern Illinois
     Southern Wisconsin

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 450 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A small but intense bow will move quickly eastward this
   evening while posing a threat for a few tornadoes and scattered to
   numerous severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 65-75
   mph. Isolated large hail may also occur.

[Chinook]

possible tornado for Davenport (strong rotation by Blue Grass, Iowa)

[MidwestChaser]

First watch in almost 2 months for Chicago; ridiculous.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[cyclone77]

Can hear sirens in the distance.  Getting the popcorn ready. 

[hawkeye_wx]

I got 1.78" from the line.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Going to get more rain in 2 days than I have in the previous 6 weeks. Love it 

[Chicago Storm]

45 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

First watch in almost 2 months for Chicago; ridiculous.

and it isn't even warranted.

sad times, really.

[cyclone77]

Nice blast of 55mph winds from the outflow.  Storm already undercut here, so nader threat already nil.

[Mogget]

Tornado warned in Green County, WI.  Also, warned for 80 mph winds.  Dog VERY unhappy with the thunder

[MidwestChaser]

21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

and it isn't even warranted.

sad times, really.

Stay mad.

[cyclone77]

Flash flood emergency declared for Davenport/Bettendorf.  Sounds pretty bad there.  They got smoked there last night too.

Picked up a quick 0.55" in a 5 min torrential downpour here.

[Mogget]

Anecdotal reports of tornados going thru Monroe and Albany, WI.  All I personally saw was some cloud rotation and an ill-formed funnel.

[frostfern]

2 minutes ago, Mogget said:

Anecdotal reports of tornados going thru Monroe and Albany, WI.  All I personally saw was some cloud rotation and an ill-formed funnel.

Nice comma head MCV.  Do CAMs show it?  Is it headed for MBY?  Lase time I saw CAM output it was whiffing north and dying.

[Mogget]

I think it is heading more north now, because Madison just got tornado warned. Our warning was just extended another 45 minutes but things are calming down here.

[Malacka11]

From the last mesoscale discussion:

"In the presence of 20-30 kt west-southwesterly mean ambient flow, moderately strong easterly updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg seems likely to  maintain current convective intensities at least to the the  southwestern shores of Lake Michigan. As long as this continues,  westerly rear inflow probably will remain sufficiently strong to contribute to strong to severe surface gusts in downdrafts."

Guess we'll see about that lmao

[frostfern]

I don’t really see anything resembling a tornadic couplet with that warning.  GRR office also preemptively tor warned a small bowing segment on May 15.  I guess the risk for spinups is high.

[cyclone77]

27 minutes ago, Mogget said:

Anecdotal reports of tornados going thru Monroe and Albany, WI.  All I personally saw was some cloud rotation and an ill-formed funnel.

Pretty sweet comma head action up that way.

Up to 1.10" here.  Some big positive stroke crashes of thunder behind the main line shaking the house.

[frostfern]

13 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

From the last mesoscale discussion:

"In the presence of 20-30 kt west-southwesterly mean ambient flow, moderately strong easterly updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg seems likely to  maintain current convective intensities at least to the the  southwestern shores of Lake Michigan. As long as this continues,  westerly rear inflow probably will remain sufficiently strong to contribute to strong to severe surface gusts in downdrafts."

Guess we'll see about that lmao

It will probably survive over the lake then croak and dry out right as it comes onshore.  I hope to get some WAA popcorn out ahead.  Thoughts and prayers.

[TheNiño]

Near Northbrook. Pretty impressive looking for an otherwise mediocre storm. 

This was taken by a friend. Obligatory don’t use your phone when driving but thought it was cool enough to share anyway.

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

From the last mesoscale discussion:

"In the presence of 20-30 kt west-southwesterly mean ambient flow, moderately strong easterly updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg seems likely to  maintain current convective intensities at least to the the  southwestern shores of Lake Michigan. As long as this continues,  westerly rear inflow probably will remain sufficiently strong to contribute to strong to severe surface gusts in downdrafts."

Guess we'll see about that lmao

Narrator voice, “this did not occur” 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Chicago Storm wins again 

[Spartman]

Through tonight