2025-2026 ENSO

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe my thoughts will change by the beginning of March, but as of right now, I don’t think March is another below normal cold month, which would make it 5 in a row 

Even if March averages above normal, hoping its at least stormy to increase snowfall chances.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

March snow in 2020s has been nearly non-existent for our area. Some residual -NAO blocking could help that, but it looks like the MJO is entering a quite unfavorable phase at the moment. 

I have noticed that March is decadal.

We had good March snows 1990 through 1999. Then we barely snowed in March 2000 through 2009. Then we had good snows in March 2010 through 2019. Of course non existent again 2020 onwards.

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It looks like we're going to be in phase 5 to end February and phase 6 to begin March. Odds favor a warm March, and probably a warm April. If there is going to be a cold and rainy month in the spring, it will be May.

WPO is going back negative so expect more cold air as we head into late February. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

WPO is going back negative so expect more cold air as we head into late February. 

I expect a continuation of our November pattern after a brief interlude. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe my thoughts will change by the beginning of March, but as of right now, I don’t think March is another below normal cold month, which would make it 5 in a row 

When you imply that Nov-Jan were all 3 BN cold, what specific area are you referring to? TIA

 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I expect a continuation of our November pattern after a brief interlude. 

Agree

[MJO812]

Eps once again correcting colder as we get closer. Theme all winter.

[jaxjagman]

Wish we could see this into March,us severe nerds would be getting excited..lol

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

When you imply that Nov-Jan were all 3 BN cold, what specific area are you referring to? TIA

 

I have October and November as NN, December and January BN. September is the most recent month AN.

[michsnowfreak]

On 2/7/2026 at 7:05 AM, bluewave said:

Getting a top 10 coldest for a week to a month across a region or adjacent regions is impressive cold but is considered a shorter duration and smaller geographic footprint. 

My discussions have been focused on seasonal top 10 cold which spans the 3 winter months of December to February. This hasn’t happened on a national level since the 1970s.

These shorter duration Arctic outbreaks ranking in the top 10 and over a smaller geographic region than the past have been a common feature of our climate in recent years.

Think back to the regional cold records during February 2021. In the old days these regional monthly top 10s would extend to seasonal which hasn’t happened in recent years. Plus the magnitude of the warmth across the Plains in December 2021 was greater than the cold in February 2021. 

None of the cold records so far in the East rank as cold as the warm records in the West have for geographic extent, magnitude, or duration. Since the Northern Hemisphere cold pool is so much smaller than it used to be.This winter has been among the warmest on record for the Northern Hemisphere. 
 

 

 

I've been a weather observer for 30 years. I live in an area that would be considered quite cold and snowy to the average American. The fact that the 3 climatologically coldest weeks of the year this year were the 3rd coldest on record IS impressive. The AWSSI winter severity index has this winter as "extreme". It doesn't change the warmth in other places which is oh so predictably constantly being brought up, it doesn't change cc, but I dont understand why weather forums suddenly become climate change lessons during times of regional cold. Why every arctic blast has to be scrutinized for its longevity or regional coverage. The hey day of weather forums as weather forums is LONG gone. 

[donsutherland1]

January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20° in Central Park. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982.

[michsnowfreak]

39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20° in Central Park. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982.

 

Fantastic pics!

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20° in Central Park. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982.

Lake Erie is 96% frozen over today,that hasnt happened the last 2 decades

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If anyone is curious, 2 colder than average Winters in the Northeast (DJF 24-25 and 25-26) followed by an El Nino is actually a common occurrence.. It has happened 10 times since 1950. Here's the temp composite for the following El Nino Winter (theory for 26-27): 

I was actually a little surprised that it didn't skew a little cooler. Precip is also surprisingly below average in the Mid-Atlantic, with only 10 examples hard to say if that's a coincidence or the pattern. 

[GaWx]

14 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Phase 4 by the 22nd. Hopefully enough time left on the clock for another snowy period. Worst case is its too late but we end up with yet another cold and rainy spring.

 I finally finished my analysis of temperatures at Baltimore (as a rep. of the middle portion of the E coast) during the 20 La Niña Februaries (566 days, a big sample) by MJO phase. Keep in mind that La Niña Februaries in the E US have averaged a bit AN (+2.3F at Baltimore) as expected. That shouldn’t be forgotten when looking at each phase. So, that’s going to make it hard for any Niña phase to be cold in Feb. If a phase is colder (warmer) than +2.3, I’m considering it a cold (warm) phase on average relative to La Niña Feb climo.

 Here are the resulting anomalies (in degrees F) keeping in mind these are merely averages of a wide range from MB or B to MA for each phase:

Phase 1: +2.1 (near Niña Feb climo)

Phase 2: +4.4 (2nd warmest)

Phase 3: -1.5 (easily coldest at 3.8 colder than Niña Feb climo)

Phase 4: +3.3

Phase 5: +3.1

Phase 6: +5.5 (warmest)

Phase 7: +2.2 (near Nina Feb climo)

Phase 8: +0.7 (2nd coldest)

Data sources:

1. MJO for each day of the 20 La Niña Febs:

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

2. Daily Baltimore temperatures for each day in Feb:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx

[EastonSN+]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I finally finished my analysis of temperatures at Baltimore (as a rep. of the middle portion of the E coast) during the 20 La Niña Februaries (566 days, a big sample) by MJO phase. Keep in mind that La Niña Februaries in the E US have averaged a bit AN (+2.3F at Baltimore) as expected. That shouldn’t be forgotten when looking at each phase. So, that’s going to make it hard for any Niña phase to be cold in Feb. If a phase is colder (warmer) than +2.3, I’m considering it a cold (warm) phase on average relative to La Niña Feb climo.

 Here are the resulting anomalies (in degrees F) keeping in mind these are merely averages of a wide range from MB or B to MA for each phase:

Phase 1: +2.1 (near Niña Feb climo)

Phase 2: +4.4 (2nd warmest)

Phase 3: -1.5 (easily coldest at 3.8 colder than Niña Feb climo)

Phase 4: +3.3

Phase 5: +3.1

Phase 6: +5.5 (warmest)

Phase 7: +2.2 (near Nina Feb climo)

Phase 8: +0.7 (2nd coldest)

Data sources:

1. MJO for each day of the 20 La Niña Febs:

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

2. Daily Baltimore temperatures for each day in Feb:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx

That is interesting! Looks like we have a decent pass through phase 3, however, I would love to get back to 8 for bigger storm potential.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, obviously my time frame for the SSW will not work out after looking likely a week ago...but I'm till not convinced we don't pull it off later in the month.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, obviously my time frame for the SSW will not work out after looking likely a week ago...but I'm till not convinced we don't pull it off later in the month.

Those things are really, really hard to predict, aren't they?

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, obviously my time frame for the SSW will not work out after looking likely a week ago...but I'm till not convinced we don't pull it off later in the month.

I’m starting to think if one actually does happen it will be in March, but at that point, it will basically function as an early final warming

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Those things are really, really hard to predict, aren't they?

Yes, but I think my wok has been pretty good....there is some degree of warming occurring right when I expected, but it turns out it will be more of a Canadian warming rather than a SSW.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, NyWxGuy said:

Ideally, you would have wanted a SSW to take place by mid February in order to have its effects felt in March. Nothing but bad trends across the board for the long range so far. SSW looks less likely, and long range looks like warm/wet and cold/dry. Dry begets dry, and the drought conditions continue. The residual -NAO will likely help us remain cooler relative to average but the rest of CONUS will be torching and our source region gets real warm as well. 

I agree on that, but SSW is not the only path to a Nice ending. I still like March, regardless.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

Ideally, you would have wanted a SSW to take place by mid February in order to have its effects felt in March. Nothing but bad trends across the board for the long range so far. SSW looks less likely, and long range looks like warm/wet and cold/dry. Dry begets dry, and the drought conditions continue. The residual -NAO will likely help us remain cooler relative to average but the rest of CONUS will be torching and our source region gets real warm as well. 

 
Today’s Euro Weeklies fwiw for Feb 23rd-Mar 22nd still show no sustained NE warmth and only limited sustained warmth at most in rest of E US:

2/23-3/1 cold NE/NN elsewhere:

 

3/2-8 NN NE; this is only AN week of these 4 weeks OH Valley to SE and it doesn’t even have sustained torching as it’s just the edge:

 

3/9-15 cooled back to NN all of E US:

 

3/16-22 NN entire E US:

 Notice that on all of these maps the W 1/2 of US is mild. More often than not, that supports the E US at the least not being mild and sometimes downright cold. This is certainly not a warm look for the E US and suggests no early spring despite the expected false spring next week.

@40/70 Benchmark

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
Today’s Euro Weeklies fwiw for Feb 23rd-Mar 22nd still show no sustained NE warmth and only limited sustained warmth at most in rest of E US:

2/23-3/1 cold NE/NN elsewhere:

 

3/2-8 NN NE; this is only AN week of these 4 weeks OH Valley to SE and it doesn’t even have torching:

 

3/9-15 cooled back to NN all of E US:

 

3/16-22 NN entire E US:

 Notice that on all of these maps the W 1/2 of US is mild. More often than not, that supports the E US at the least not being mild and sometimes downright cold. This is certainly not a warm look for the E US and suggests no early spring despite the expected false spring next week.

@40/70 Benchmark

Euro and eps trended to a colder pattern moving forward.  Sooner or later we will have a warm pattern but yet again it is getting muted.

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
 Notice that on all of these maps the W 1/2 of US is mild. More often than not, that supports the E US at the least not being mild and sometimes downright cold. This is certainly not a warm look for the E US and suggests no early spring despite the expected false spring next week.

Excellent point. We all know the west is having a record warm winter. In fact, I have never, EVER seen the west get as much attention on this forum as it has during this very cold Great Lakes/northeast winter. But lets not forget the basics - outside of some extreme years, the common rule of thumb is west warm/east cool and vice versa. Its the very common result of ridging and troughing. 

Personally, I am not looking forward to the false spring but I have a hope. Since Thanksgiving, except for 2 brief thaws, we have been treated to a continuous fresh, clean and glistening snow blanket (none of that hoping the torch passes to preseve a crusty pack) with nonstop cold. Feels like a Winnipeg winter. But whats been lacking locally is a real big storm (biggest was 6.2"). With the eroding of the deep cold and the getting to that time of year when real dynamic late winter/early spring storms can develop, its the transition from deep winter to gambling time. More risk, more reward type. Might as well buckle up, what have we got to lose?

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

The EW week 3/2-8 suggests warmer sneaking back in but not even to the E coast. But afterward, the EW then suggest that that warming, itself, would also be temporary as per what I just posted.

[MJO812]

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Per what the EW have been showing this period (2/17-23) could end up the warmest week in the E 1/3 of the US overall, possibly even in the absolutes in some areas, til at least late March.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

32 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

I think the reason why the record warm west is getting so much attention is because the eastern half of the US has seen cold like this before. I mean, aside from a few record lows over the past few weeks on random days, nothing about the cold air has been unprecedented. Unusual, strong, and brutal yes. Record-breaking? No. But the fact that the plains and further west have almost 0 snow and have been running around 20 degrees above average since late November is excruciatingly rare and thus, record breaking. And as the world continues to warm, the warmest anomalies almost always outpace the colder anomalies. This winter is a great example of that 

I think the consistency of 10s and low 20s for highs and lows in the 0s.. for like a 3 week period down here is pretty impressive. I held 8" snowcover for 2.5 weeks, which is really rare. This happened without real strong upper latitude patterns, like a -NAO or -EPO, although the AO was severely negative:

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Per what the EW have been showing this period (2/17-23) could end up the warmest week in the E 1/3 of the US overall, possibly even in the absolutes in some areas, til at least late March.

Idk, March still looks pretty torchy to me, at least the first half.