2025-2026 ENSO

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Don, does the same uncertainty exist for the start of March? How about in the South?

It continues into the start of March. The Southeast could have the lowest chance of seeing a return to cold conditions. The Middle Atlantic could be a battleground. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It continues into the start of March. The Southeast could have the lowest chance of seeing a return to cold conditions. The Middle Atlantic could be a battleground. 

The further time goes on, the more likely of warmer conditions in the East. A lot of the recent cold winters (2010, 2011, and 2015 are perfect examples) have had very warm spring months.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's funny watching DT perplexed at how the guidance keeps whiffing on the MJO getting into phase 8 with any purpose...he keeps buying it every time. You think one of these seasons he would wrap his mind around the fact that there isn't some metaphorical switch that is hit when the weekly anomaly in ENSO region 3.4 gets above -0.5C...he always spews that same nonsense about La Niña dying, blah, blah, blah. I mean...you do this for a living, and I advertised the fact that guidance would do this, and why last fall.

[jaxjagman]

This looks warm in the East upcoming

For what ever reason,the CFS shows this tropical forcing with Rossby/Kelvin Waves into the WP/MC,but its been over amplifying this since fall,but its still a warm look,

Seems like to me this is fixing to become a active severe threat up past as we get further alonginto,FEB,with the MJO,GAAM,they both seem to be coupled rather well right now

[jaxjagman]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's funny watching DT perplexed at how the guidance keeps whiffing on the MJO getting into phase 8 with any purpose...he keeps buying it every time. You think one of these seasons he would wrap his mind around the fact that there isn't some metaphorical switch that is hit when the weekly anomaly in ENSO region 3.4 gets above -0.5C...he always spews that same nonsense about La Niña dying, blah, blah, blah. I mean...you do this for a living, and I advertised the fact that guidance would do this, and why last fall.

BAM does the same shit,its all click bait,give me your money

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

The cold temperature anomalies are impressive for the Eastern US, but when you take a holistic look at the United States as a whole, the cold temperature anomalies are much less impressive. Especially when you have a snowless Rocky Mountains and spring like weather up into southern Canada. That’s the real story here.

December and January finished around the 7th warmest for the CONUS. So the warmth out West has been much more impressive than the cold in the East.

The shorter duration last 2 to 3 weeks had top 5 and top 10 cold for climate districts in the East for January 20th to February 7th. But since the start of the winter the climate districts and the larger regions haven’t been nearly as cold.

With how warm our winters have become since 2015-2016, it makes this winter feel much colder since people quickly normalize their recent 3-7 year climate.

Right before the big global and national temperature jump in 2015-2016, the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest regions were able to sustain a top 10 cold pattern for the entire winter of 2013-2014. But that cold pool was less expansive than the late 1970s so nationally we couldn’t rank in the top 10 or even top 20. It finished 33rd coldest for the CONUS.

We can see how the record warmth wasn’t present in the West that winter. Prior to the multiple temperature increases since the early 1980s, the entire CONUS had its last top 10 coldest winters from coast to coast with no extreme warmth anywhere in the CONUS in the late 1970s. With 1978-1979 ranking as the coldest winter since 1895 for the CONUS.

 

https://bsky.app/profile/climatologist49.bsky.social/post/3me3dxzzakc23

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The Dec-Jan period was the 7th warmest for the Contiguous U.S. since 1940. 21.1% had the warmest Dec-Jan during that period. 0.0% had the coldest Dec-Jan; 0.0% had the 2nd coldest, 0.0% had the 3rd coldest, .... all the way thru the 13th coldest.

 

9:32 PM · Feb 4, 2026

 

[snowman19]

10 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

BAM does the same shit,its all click bait,give me your money

BAMWX does this every winter, from November through March. If you noticed, once it became obvious that the arctic cold was going to moderate this month, they immediately started to hype a cold and snowy March. They know damn well how to keep the weenie’s clicks and subscription money flooding in and they know they have one more month left (March) to hype cold and snow and laugh all the way to the bank…..

[NyWxGuy]

More record warm temps coming to plains and central US this week. Some parts will be nearly 30 above average. Our cold and snow in Midwest and east coast has been relatively unique compared to rest of US that continues to torch their way through this winter. Parts of the Rockies up to southern Canada are nearly snowless. Takes a very anomalous warm period to make that happen. Seems similar to 2015 and 2014 where we had great winters here but they were running out of snow and water out west. Except those winters were a lot snowier in the east than this year is. Either way, another winter heatwave on the way for the plains 

[EastonSN+]

Phase 4 by the 22nd. Hopefully enough time left on the clock for another snowy period. Worst case is its too late but we end up with yet another cold and rainy spring.

[EastonSN+]

Looking at the below would think blocking would come back soon. However, I do not see this happening per 2nd snip.....not lining up.

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looking at the below would think blocking would come back soon. However, I do not see this happening per 2nd snip.....not lining up.

My thoughts on March have not changed one iota yet. As of now, I don’t think March is going to be another below normal month for cold. We have been extremely lucky to see the last 4 months in a row (since November) feature solidly below normal cold. A 5th? Color me extremely skeptical right now 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Phase 4 by the 22nd. Hopefully enough time left on the clock for another snowy period. Worst case is its too late but we end up with yet another cold and rainy spring.

It looks like we're going to be in phase 5 to end February and phase 6 to begin March. Odds favor a warm March, and probably a warm April. If there is going to be a cold and rainy month in the spring, it will be May.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It looks like we're going to be in phase 5 to end February and phase 6 to begin March. Odds favor a warm March, and probably a warm April. If there is going to be a cold and rainy month in the spring, it will be May.

I have a feeling it will start getting chillier by the last week of March. Hope I am wrong. 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

My thoughts on March have not changed one iota yet. As of now, I don’t think March is going to be another below normal month for cold. We have been extremely lucky to see the last 4 months in a row (since November) feature solidly below normal cold. A 5th? Color me extremely skeptical right now 

The EPS has some semblance of a weak PV which would align with the zonal graph. 

 

[snowman19]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

The EPS has some semblance of a weak PV which would align with the zonal graph. 

 

Maybe my thoughts will change by the beginning of March, but as of right now, I don’t think March is another below normal cold month, which would make it 5 in a row 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe my thoughts will change by the beginning of March, but as of right now, I don’t think March is another below normal cold month, which would make it 5 in a row 

Even if March averages above normal, hoping its at least stormy to increase snowfall chances.

[NyWxGuy]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Even if March averages above normal, hoping its at least stormy to increase snowfall chances.

March snow in 2020s has been nearly non-existent for our area. Some residual -NAO blocking could help that, but it looks like the MJO is entering a quite unfavorable phase at the moment. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

March snow in 2020s has been nearly non-existent for our area. Some residual -NAO blocking could help that, but it looks like the MJO is entering a quite unfavorable phase at the moment. 

I have noticed that March is decadal.

We had good March snows 1990 through 1999. Then we barely snowed in March 2000 through 2009. Then we had good snows in March 2010 through 2019. Of course non existent again 2020 onwards.

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It looks like we're going to be in phase 5 to end February and phase 6 to begin March. Odds favor a warm March, and probably a warm April. If there is going to be a cold and rainy month in the spring, it will be May.

WPO is going back negative so expect more cold air as we head into late February. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

WPO is going back negative so expect more cold air as we head into late February. 

I expect a continuation of our November pattern after a brief interlude. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Maybe my thoughts will change by the beginning of March, but as of right now, I don’t think March is another below normal cold month, which would make it 5 in a row 

When you imply that Nov-Jan were all 3 BN cold, what specific area are you referring to? TIA

 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I expect a continuation of our November pattern after a brief interlude. 

Agree

[MJO812]

Eps once again correcting colder as we get closer. Theme all winter.

[jaxjagman]

Wish we could see this into March,us severe nerds would be getting excited..lol

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

When you imply that Nov-Jan were all 3 BN cold, what specific area are you referring to? TIA

 

I have October and November as NN, December and January BN. September is the most recent month AN.

[michsnowfreak]

On 2/7/2026 at 7:05 AM, bluewave said:

Getting a top 10 coldest for a week to a month across a region or adjacent regions is impressive cold but is considered a shorter duration and smaller geographic footprint. 

My discussions have been focused on seasonal top 10 cold which spans the 3 winter months of December to February. This hasn’t happened on a national level since the 1970s.

These shorter duration Arctic outbreaks ranking in the top 10 and over a smaller geographic region than the past have been a common feature of our climate in recent years.

Think back to the regional cold records during February 2021. In the old days these regional monthly top 10s would extend to seasonal which hasn’t happened in recent years. Plus the magnitude of the warmth across the Plains in December 2021 was greater than the cold in February 2021. 

None of the cold records so far in the East rank as cold as the warm records in the West have for geographic extent, magnitude, or duration. Since the Northern Hemisphere cold pool is so much smaller than it used to be.This winter has been among the warmest on record for the Northern Hemisphere. 
 

 

 

I've been a weather observer for 30 years. I live in an area that would be considered quite cold and snowy to the average American. The fact that the 3 climatologically coldest weeks of the year this year were the 3rd coldest on record IS impressive. The AWSSI winter severity index has this winter as "extreme". It doesn't change the warmth in other places which is oh so predictably constantly being brought up, it doesn't change cc, but I dont understand why weather forums suddenly become climate change lessons during times of regional cold. Why every arctic blast has to be scrutinized for its longevity or regional coverage. The hey day of weather forums as weather forums is LONG gone. 

[donsutherland1]

January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20° in Central Park. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982.

[michsnowfreak]

39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20° in Central Park. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982.

 

Fantastic pics!

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20° in Central Park. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982.

Lake Erie is 96% frozen over today,that hasnt happened the last 2 decades