2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

Posted by JB a few hours ago:

Northeast likely Never Pulls out of BN pattern

Opinions?

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Recent Aprils have been cool more often than not. Looking back at La Nina Aprils, its a very wide variety of results, everything from near-record cold to near-record warm, although the colder ones outweighed the warm ones.

CFS seasonal has a cold April. Euro seasonal has average. Cansips has cold in NE and avg to slightly mild midwest.

Now, Im still waiting to hear what what we are basing a torch April on? I mean, torch implies at least what, top-10 warmth? 

They really haven't though. 2024 featured the 6th warmest April on record at Detroit, and your last "cold" April was in 2022. Even then, it was a mere 2 degrees below average, so nothing to write home about. I haven't said anything about how April will shape up this year as I have no idea what will happen (way too early), but if we're basing forecasts on how our recent weather months shaped up (which isn't entirely correct to do), I'd def lean warmer than average. Also still waiting to see how this supposed PV split will shake up the pattern. Cold may favor the West instead (assuming it even does happen).

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Posted by JB a few hours ago:

Northeast likely Never Pulls out of BN pattern

Opinions?

Come on, you're smart enough to know better surely.

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Come on, you're smart enough to know better surely.

 Good point! I’m just trying to generate discussion. I know he’s always been very strongly cold-biased (due to a combo of his being a cold weenie plus cold’s much better for business/traffic/likes) and I’ve never been shy about saying so, but sometimes he ends up right. Could this be one of those times?

 Of course, I’m responding to a person who proudly prefers warmth based on nearly all of your recent posts and username. Nothing wrong with that, of course and you have company here and especially elsewhere. Different strokes for different folks!  

[PhiEaglesfan712]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Posted by JB a few hours ago:

Northeast likely Never Pulls out of BN pattern

Opinions?

When you start to see people posting headlines like this, then you know to expect the opposite is most likely to happen. It's like when people on Accuweather were commenting in the beginning of March 2015 that April and May 2015 were going to be even colder. The opposite ended up happening, with May 2015 being record warm (or very close to it) in many places in the Eastern US.

[snowman19]

@GaWx Could you please share the Euro Seasonal for March if you have it? I keep seeing people crying on twitter that it’s a “torch” but I have yet to see a single image. Just wondering if it’s actually as bad as they are saying? 

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx Could you please share the Euro Seasonal for March if you have it? I keep seeing people crying on twitter that it’s a “torch” but I have yet to see a single image. Just wondering if it’s actually as bad as they are saying? 

 Tweets are often exaggerations as we know. The new Euro for March is still mainly warmer than normal but no torch as it’s mainly only slightly AN since it’s cooler than the forecast from a month ago:

Last month’s Euro for March:

 

Today’s Euro for March: not as mild with only ~1F AN NE, 2 AN DC, Chicago, Detroit, and RDU, and 2-2.5 AN ATL/MEM for example:

 

April also came in cooler than it had last month.

 I am wary, however, about WxBell Euro 2m temp anomalies having a cold bias due to their algos. So, you probably have to add at least 1F to what I said to adjust for that bias. So, more like at least 2F AN NE and at least 3-3.5 AN in the other cities I listed. So, again not as warm as last month’s forecast and not really a torch, but still fairly mild especially after the bias correction. I can’t find March by itself at the ecmwf site, itself, unfortunately.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Tweets are often exaggerations as we know. The new Euro for March is still mainly warmer than normal but mainly only slightly as it is cooler than the forecast from a month ago:

Last month’s Euro for March:

 

Today’s Euro for March: not as mild with only ~1F AN NE, 2 AN DC, Chicago, Detroit, and RDU, and 2-2.5 AN ATL/MEM for example:

 

April also came in cooler than it had last month.

 I am wary, however, about WxBell 2m temp anomalies having a cold bias due to their algos. So, you probably have to add at least 1F to what I said to adjust for that bias. So, more like 2F AN NE and 3-3.5 AN in the other cities I listed. can’t find March by itself at the ecmwf site, itself, unfortunately.

 

It looks like they fixed whatever always led to a big negative departure over Lake Superior.

[cny rider]

2 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

i actually went to college in savannah (scad) and no one has experienced hell until you walk through downtown savannah at 2pm on a july day. like walking through sludge. beautiful town though, lived right on gaston st for the last 2 years i lived there. i miss it sometimes... until i remember the humidity

I'm a lifelong northerner, on a work trip years ago I made the mistake of walking out of my hotel onto the street in New Orleans in June.

It felt like being punched in the face, hard. I could barely breathe.

 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It looks like they fixed whatever always led to a big negative departure over Lake Superior.

It’s the WxBell CFS, not their Euro, that has those weird issues. WxBell Euro just has a straight 2m cold bias. And you must have meant a S. Lake Michigan - departure (not Superior, which actually typically has the opposite, a relative + departure in the E portion) just as this CFS has:

[A-L-E-K]

ready 4 spring

[PhiEaglesfan712]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Tweets are often exaggerations as we know. The new Euro for March is still mainly warmer than normal but no torch as it’s mainly only slightly AN since it’s cooler than the forecast from a month ago:

Last month’s Euro for March:

 

Today’s Euro for March: not as mild with only ~1F AN NE, 2 AN DC, Chicago, Detroit, and RDU, and 2-2.5 AN ATL/MEM for example:

 

April also came in cooler than it had last month.

 I am wary, however, about WxBell Euro 2m temp anomalies having a cold bias due to their algos. So, you probably have to add at least 1F to what I said to adjust for that bias. So, more like at least 2F AN NE and at least 3-3.5 AN in the other cities I listed. So, again not as warm as last month’s forecast and not really a torch, but still fairly mild especially after the bias correction. I can’t find March by itself at the ecmwf site, itself, unfortunately.

 

Here's the April 2015 temperature anomoly: 

This map doesn't look much different than those March 2026 Euro maps.

[MJO812]

Weeklies for last week of February into March look stormy and cold