2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

 The Euro Weeklies (extended EPS) have been trending away from the mid-Feb 10 mb wind reversal:

 Run from just 4 days ago (1/31/26) was strongly predicting it with most members reversing sometime within 2/12-18 with lowest mean ~0:

 

Today (2/4/26): Only 5 of 100 members reversing during 2/12-18 with lowest mean during then down only to ~+11:

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The Euro Weeklies (extended EPS) have been trending away from the mid-Feb 10 mb wind reversal:

 Run from just 4 days ago (1/31/26) was strongly predicting it with most members reversing sometime within 2/12-18 with lowest mean ~0:

 

Today (2/4/26): Only 5 of 100 members reversing during 2/12-18 with lowest mean during then down only to ~+11:

The wind reversal prospects are dropping off quickly. I’m starting to think there actually may not end up not being a major SSWE and an SPV split like @so_whats_happening has been musing….

[LakePaste25]

I do think an ENSO Feb mismatch in the NE is plausible when it comes to the surface temps vs. H5. Nina-like aloft at 500mb, but Nino-like below normal surface temps. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The wind reversal prospects are dropping off quickly. I’m starting to think there actually may not end up not being a major SSWE and an SPV split like @so_whats_happening has been musing….

Could also be a case where it's a bit later, too.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Feb Nina -PNA is serviceable here. Averages around 50% of normal (10”). Would say that weak-warm +ENSO Feb performs the best here, however. Such as in 2020, 2019, 2015, 2007. 

I'd replace 2020 with 2005. 2020 was an outlier, snowless year, which will drag down the composite.

[LakePaste25]

35 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'd replace 2020 with 2005. 2020 was an outlier, snowless year, which will drag down the composite.

Feb 2020 had above average snowfall here (24.9”, Feb average is 20”). The worst Feb here was 2024 (strong nino), which featured a paltry 0.8”

[donsutherland1]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If anything, the legacy EPS and the EPS-AI have gotten even stronger with the -PNA since yesterday

 

 

There's no question that the PNA+ regime is ending.

The ECMWF weeklies keep the PNA negative through the duration of their forecast period.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

NDJ 25-26 RONI: -1.0

January 2026 PDO: -1.19 (73rd straight negative month)

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

NDJ 25-26 RONI: -1.0

January 2026 PDO: -1.19 (73rd straight negative month)

Nice. I had -1 to -1.2 as the forecast peak RONI range.

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's no question that the PNA+ regime is ending.

The ECMWF weeklies keep the PNA negative through the duration of their forecast period.

If I were to break Feb roughly into thirds, this is how I would lay it out:

First third (1-10th): Very cold/well below normal

Second third: (11-20th): Milder risks, but not well above normal. -PNA

Third (21-28th): Potentially return to colder than normal with established -WPO + blocking (this period more TBD). Not nearly as cold as the first third. Still -PNA

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's no question that the PNA+ regime is ending.

The ECMWF weeklies keep the PNA negative through the duration of their forecast period.

Is the RNA preferable for snow chances after mid month, or just less detrimental?

[EastonSN+]

Hopefully one more pass through 8 before the end of March. Although looking at this progression does not look promising.

[EastonSN+]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The Euro Weeklies (extended EPS) have been trending away from the mid-Feb 10 mb wind reversal:

 Run from just 4 days ago (1/31/26) was strongly predicting it with most members reversing sometime within 2/12-18 with lowest mean ~0:

 

Today (2/4/26): Only 5 of 100 members reversing during 2/12-18 with lowest mean during then down only to ~+11:

Not liking this delay. Really want to avoid a cold April.

[bluewave]

This was our 2nd winter in a row with the highest ranking CONUS snowfall occurring in the South.

The common denominator between both winters has been overpowering 500 mb ridges in the Western U.S. and Canada. So the ridge-trough axis with this recent event was too far east. Last winter the ridge was located more in Canada.

The difference this winter has been while we still have a dominant Northern Stream like last winter, we had a 7 day period where the Southern Stream was able to become more active as the forcing shifted east of the Dateline like January 2022.  

This allowed the one classic benchmark storm track for the first NESIS KU type event with widespread 10”+ for the Northeast since January 2022.

The hope for next winter is the potential El Niño development will give us more than a one week window of opportunity for benchmark  10”+ snowstorms. 
 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEW BERN - COASTAL CAROLINA REGIONAL AIRPORT, NC
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	15.5	1965-01-31	0
2	13.0	2026-02-01	1
-	13.0	2026-01-31	0
-	13.0	1973-02-10	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for New Orleans Area, LA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	8.0	2025-01-22	0
-	8.0	2025-01-21	1
2	2.7	1964-01-01	0
-	2.7	1963-12-31	0
3	2.0	1958-02-13	0
-	2.0	1958-02-12	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Mobile Area, AL (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	7.5	2025-01-22	0
-	7.5	2025-01-21	0
2	6.0	1895-02-15	0
3	5.0	1881-01-25	0
-	5.0	1881-01-24	0

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Is the RNA preferable for snow chances after mid month, or just less detrimental?

More serviceable after mid month due to it flipping from a -WPO induced -PNA rather than a +WPO jet extension induced -PNA. Restores true cold into Canada. It won’t be like December where the -WPO alone will be enough due to shorter wavelengths, but if other factors align such as better angle of -PNA troughing and atlantic/arctic blocking, then it’s absolutely a decent pattern to work with for the northern tier. It’s why i put the last third of Feb as colder risks, but more TBD.

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Is the RNA preferable for snow chances after mid month, or just less detrimental?

With shortening wave lengths, it actually becomes better for snowfall in the East than a PNA+.

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

If I were to break Feb roughly into thirds, this is how I would lay it out:

First third (1-10th): Very cold/well below normal

Second third: (11-20th): Milder risks, but not well above normal. -PNA

Third (21-28th): Potentially return to colder than normal with established -WPO + blocking (this period more TBD). Not nearly as cold as the first third. Still -PNA

I'd like to see the EPO go negative toward the end of February. At that point, due to shortening wave lengths, there would be a stronger shot at a return to cold. Overall, that seems to be a reasonable idea, but there could be other variables that shape the outcome that can't be well-forecast at this point in time.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not liking this delay. Really want to avoid a cold April.

I feel like the cold is on borrowed time. I see a 2015-type progression (just shift one month forward). I'm going with near normal mid-February, warm March, and torch April.

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I feel like the cold is on borrowed time. I see a 2015-type progression (just shift one month forward). I'm going with near normal mid-February, warm March, and torch April.

 

Haven’t you been calling for a mild E US starting in January with your 2017 and 2023 analogs? Not that what you’re saying can’t or won’t happen. But why should we believe you now?

 Mid Feb is actually looking warmer than normal for many areas of the E US especially away from the E coast per the EWs. But then you skip all of the way to March and even April based on what exactly? 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Haven’t you been calling for a mild E US starting in January with your 2017 and 2023 analogs? Not that what you’re saying can’t or won’t happen. But why should we believe you now?

 Mid Feb is actually looking warmer than normal for many areas of the E US especially away from the E coast per the EWs. But then you skip all of the way to March and even April based on what exactly? 

The law of averages says a warm month has to happen at some point. The Eastern US hasn't had an above average month since September, and a near normal month since November.

With the exception of 2013-14 (and even that had a warm May and June), all of the big cold years produced torch months at some point in the spring. 2010 (from March-September), 2011 (from April-July), and 2015 (in May). Even last year, March produced a Top 10 warmest month, and 2018 had the anomolously warm February, as well as a Top 10 warmest May.

[GaWx]

On 11/16/2025 at 9:42 AM, GaWx said:

 I just looked up -ENSO winters with a -PNA in Dec to see how often it went to a +PNA in Jan. In what winters did this occur?

-1954-5: -0.52 to +0.40

-1962-3: -0.08 to +0.58

-1983-4: -0.31 to +0.97

-1984-5: -1.60 to +1.63

-1996-7: -1.23 to +0.63

-1998-9: -0.09 to +0.16

-2008-9: -1.41 to +0.61

-2010-11: -1.78 to +1.29

-2012-3: -1.01 to +0.55

-2013-4: -0.86 to +0.97

-2016-7: -0.35 to +0.28

-2021-2: -2.56 to +1.01

-2022-3: -0.66 to +0.22

 So, although it wasn’t common from 1954-5 through 1971-2, when only 2 of 9 (22%) switched, here’s something that just blew my mind:

-ALL 11 -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 switched to +PNA Jans (listed above)!

-These 11 averaged +0.76 in January!

-Now, check out the -ENSO Jan PNAs since 1983-4 that had a +PNA in Dec:

1) 1985-6 went from +1.39 to +0.97

2) 1988-9 went from +0.63 to -0.72

3) 1995-6 went from +0.92 to -0.02

4) 1999-00 went from +0.21 to -0.82

5) 2000-01 went from +1.23 to +1.51

6) 2001-2 went from +0.56 to -0.04

7) 2005-6 went from +1.38 to -0.43

8) 2007-8 went from +0.14 to -0.32

9) 2011-2 went from +0.36 to +0.60

10) 2017-8 went from +0.89 to +0.40

11) 2020-1 went from +1.58 to +0.19

12) 2024-5 went from +1.70 to +1.05

 -So, for these 12 -ENSO Decs since 1983-4 with a +PNA, only 50% also had a +PNA in Jan.

-So, since 1983-4, whereas only 50% of the 12 -ENSO Decs with a +PNA also had a Jan +PNA, 100% of the 11 -ENSO Decs with a -PNA in Dec went to a +PNA in Jan! Thus, having a -PNA in Dec during -ENSO since 1983-4 has, if anything, meant a big increase in the chance for a +PNA in Jan whether random or not! I didn’t know this til just now.

Link to monthly PNAs back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
 

@donsutherland1

 I’m bumping this 11/16/25 post.
 
 So, following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The law of averages says a warm month has to happen at some point. The Eastern US hasn't had an above average month since September, and a near normal month since November.

With the exception of 2013-14 (and even that had a warm May and June), all of the big cold years produced torch months at some point in the spring. 2010 (from March-September), 2011 (from April-July), and 2015 (in May). Even last year, March produced a Top 10 warmest month, and 2018 had the anomolously warm February, as well as a Top 10 warmest May.

February doesnt look warm at all for the east. Same thing has been happening all winter. Looks warm in the east in the long range only to correct colder.

[vegan_edible]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

February doesnt look warm at all for the east. Same thing has been happening all winter. Looks warm in the east in the long range only to correct colder.

theoretically it has to give out at some point and we see a significant warm up. at least that's what im hoping for. i see no point in a cold march and april. as soon as it hits march 1st i yearn for 72 and sunny

[michsnowfreak]

On 2/4/2026 at 6:28 AM, bluewave said:

The beauty of living the Great Lakes is that even having the warmest winter on record in 23-24, Marquette was able to get 126.4” of snowfall. Now I realize that is a very low snowfall outcome for the area. But it’s still way ahead of the snowiest seasons in my area. 

Yes, everything is relative to climo. I take a 3-4 day trip to northern MI every year in mid-late February (usually the U.P., sometimes northern lower MI) and in Feb 2024 youd have thought it hadnt snowed at all the way the locals talked even though the area I was at was at like 80 inches on the season at that point. 2023-24 is my lowest snowfall since Ive kept track since 1995, at 21.4". 

After the gross 2023-24, 2024-25 was a good winter for MI in that it was cold and white, although snowfall was on the light side outside of the snowbelts. But 2025-26 has been a fantastic winter statewide with plentiful cold, snowfall, and snowcover.

Today is the 50th day with 1"+ snowcover this season at Detroit. The depth is 8". The current 30-yr annual avg is 47 days, and the longterm avg is 49 days, so we have already eclipsed season avg in early Feb.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I feel like the cold is on borrowed time. I see a 2015-type progression (just shift one month forward). I'm going with near normal mid-February, warm March, and torch April.

 

Its way out, but I cannot see this as being a torch April.

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

53 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It’s way out, but I cannot see this as being a torch April.

And you’re basing this on what exactly? 1976-1977 was one of the coldest winters on record and that spring went on to be an absolute torch fest.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

theoretically it has to give out at some point and we see a significant warm up. at least that's what im hoping for. i see no point in a cold march and april. as soon as it hits march 1st i yearn for 72 and sunny

 I want BN temps 365 days of the year. But keep in mind that I’m in a place that’s heavily dominated by heat and humidity and where “cold” is very tolerable and quite enjoyable. Anytime I can get an export of dry Canadian air I’m a happy camper and love being outside! A “cold” April here (say 5 BN) would be highs averaging ~73 and lows averaging 50. How much more pleasant can it be than that? Everything is relative. My main dislike is high dewpoints. Even 80s with sub 50 dewpoints are pleasant.

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

And you’re basing this on what exactly? 1976-1977 was one of the coldest winters on record and that spring went on to be an absolute torch fest.

Recent Aprils have been cool more often than not. Looking back at La Nina Aprils, its a very wide variety of results, everything from near-record cold to near-record warm, although the colder ones outweighed the warm ones.

CFS seasonal has a cold April. Euro seasonal has average. Cansips has cold in NE and avg to slightly mild midwest.

Now, Im still waiting to hear what what we are basing a torch April on? I mean, torch implies at least what, top-10 warmth? 

[vegan_edible]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I want BN temps 365 days of the year. But keep in mind that I’m in a place that’s heavily dominated by heat and humidity and where “cold” is very tolerable and quite enjoyable. Anytime I can get an export of dry Canadian air I’m a happy camper and love being outside! A “cold” April here (say 5 BN) would be highs averaging ~73 and lows averaging 50. How much more pleasant can it be than that? Everything is relative. My main dislike is high dewpoints. Even 80s with sub 50 dewpoints are pleasant.

i actually went to college in savannah (scad) and no one has experienced hell until you walk through downtown savannah at 2pm on a july day. like walking through sludge. beautiful town though, lived right on gaston st for the last 2 years i lived there. i miss it sometimes... until i remember the humidity

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I want BN temps 365 days of the year. But keep in mind that I’m in a place that’s heavily dominated by heat and humidity and where “cold” is very tolerable and quite enjoyable. Anytime I can get an export of dry Canadian air I’m a happy camper and love being outside! A “cold” April here (say 5 BN) would be highs averaging ~73 and lows averaging 50. How much more pleasant can it be than that? Everything is relative. My main dislike is high dewpoints. Even 80s with sub 50 dewpoints are pleasant.

Im the same lol, I want BN temps all year. Your area is undoubtedly beautiful...in fact...my mom and I always talk about a trip to Savannah but the heat is what turns us off....but you sound like you belong in the north haha. You would have absolutely froze up here in 2023-24. Like you said, everything is relative.