2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

 The Euro Weeklies (extended EPS) have been trending away from the mid-Feb 10 mb wind reversal:

 Run from just 4 days ago (1/31/26) was strongly predicting it with most members reversing sometime within 2/12-18 with lowest mean ~0:

 

Today (2/4/26): Only 5 of 100 members reversing during 2/12-18 with lowest mean during then down only to ~+11:

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The Euro Weeklies (extended EPS) have been trending away from the mid-Feb 10 mb wind reversal:

 Run from just 4 days ago (1/31/26) was strongly predicting it with most members reversing sometime within 2/12-18 with lowest mean ~0:

 

Today (2/4/26): Only 5 of 100 members reversing during 2/12-18 with lowest mean during then down only to ~+11:

The wind reversal prospects are dropping off quickly. I’m starting to think there actually may not end up not being a major SSWE and an SPV split like @so_whats_happening has been musing….

[LakePaste25]

I do think an ENSO Feb mismatch in the NE is plausible when it comes to the surface temps vs. H5. Nina-like aloft at 500mb, but Nino-like below normal surface temps. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The wind reversal prospects are dropping off quickly. I’m starting to think there actually may not end up not being a major SSWE and an SPV split like @so_whats_happening has been musing….

Could also be a case where it's a bit later, too.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Feb Nina -PNA is serviceable here. Averages around 50% of normal (10”). Would say that weak-warm +ENSO Feb performs the best here, however. Such as in 2020, 2019, 2015, 2007. 

I'd replace 2020 with 2005. 2020 was an outlier, snowless year, which will drag down the composite.

[LakePaste25]

35 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'd replace 2020 with 2005. 2020 was an outlier, snowless year, which will drag down the composite.

Feb 2020 had above average snowfall here (24.9”, Feb average is 20”). The worst Feb here was 2024 (strong nino), which featured a paltry 0.8”

[donsutherland1]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If anything, the legacy EPS and the EPS-AI have gotten even stronger with the -PNA since yesterday

 

 

There's no question that the PNA+ regime is ending.

The ECMWF weeklies keep the PNA negative through the duration of their forecast period.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

NDJ 25-26 RONI: -1.0

January 2026 PDO: -1.19 (73rd straight negative month)

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

NDJ 25-26 RONI: -1.0

January 2026 PDO: -1.19 (73rd straight negative month)

Nice. I had -1 to -1.2 as the forecast peak RONI range.

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's no question that the PNA+ regime is ending.

The ECMWF weeklies keep the PNA negative through the duration of their forecast period.

If I were to break Feb roughly into thirds, this is how I would lay it out:

First third (1-10th): Very cold/well below normal

Second third: (11-20th): Milder risks, but not well above normal. -PNA

Third (21-28th): Potentially return to colder than normal with established -WPO + blocking (this period more TBD). Not nearly as cold as the first third. Still -PNA

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's no question that the PNA+ regime is ending.

The ECMWF weeklies keep the PNA negative through the duration of their forecast period.

Is the RNA preferable for snow chances after mid month, or just less detrimental?

[EastonSN+]

Hopefully one more pass through 8 before the end of March. Although looking at this progression does not look promising.

[EastonSN+]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The Euro Weeklies (extended EPS) have been trending away from the mid-Feb 10 mb wind reversal:

 Run from just 4 days ago (1/31/26) was strongly predicting it with most members reversing sometime within 2/12-18 with lowest mean ~0:

 

Today (2/4/26): Only 5 of 100 members reversing during 2/12-18 with lowest mean during then down only to ~+11:

Not liking this delay. Really want to avoid a cold April.

[bluewave]

This was our 2nd winter in a row with the highest ranking CONUS snowfall occurring in the South.

The common denominator between both winters has been overpowering 500 mb ridges in the Western U.S. and Canada. So the ridge-trough axis with this recent event was too far east. Last winter the ridge was located more in Canada.

The difference this winter has been while we still have a dominant Northern Stream like last winter, we had a 7 day period where the Southern Stream was able to become more active as the forcing shifted east of the Dateline like January 2022.  

This allowed the one classic benchmark storm track for the first NESIS KU type event with widespread 10”+ for the Northeast since January 2022.

The hope for next winter is the potential El Niño development will give us more than a one week window of opportunity for benchmark  10”+ snowstorms. 
 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEW BERN - COASTAL CAROLINA REGIONAL AIRPORT, NC
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	15.5	1965-01-31	0
2	13.0	2026-02-01	1
-	13.0	2026-01-31	0
-	13.0	1973-02-10	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for New Orleans Area, LA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	8.0	2025-01-22	0
-	8.0	2025-01-21	1
2	2.7	1964-01-01	0
-	2.7	1963-12-31	0
3	2.0	1958-02-13	0
-	2.0	1958-02-12	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Mobile Area, AL (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	7.5	2025-01-22	0
-	7.5	2025-01-21	0
2	6.0	1895-02-15	0
3	5.0	1881-01-25	0
-	5.0	1881-01-24	0

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Is the RNA preferable for snow chances after mid month, or just less detrimental?

More serviceable after mid month due to it flipping from a -WPO induced -PNA rather than a +WPO jet extension induced -PNA. Restores true cold into Canada. It won’t be like December where the -WPO alone will be enough due to shorter wavelengths, but if other factors align such as better angle of -PNA troughing and atlantic/arctic blocking, then it’s absolutely a decent pattern to work with for the northern tier. It’s why i put the last third of Feb as colder risks, but more TBD.

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Is the RNA preferable for snow chances after mid month, or just less detrimental?

With shortening wave lengths, it actually becomes better for snowfall in the East than a PNA+.

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

If I were to break Feb roughly into thirds, this is how I would lay it out:

First third (1-10th): Very cold/well below normal

Second third: (11-20th): Milder risks, but not well above normal. -PNA

Third (21-28th): Potentially return to colder than normal with established -WPO + blocking (this period more TBD). Not nearly as cold as the first third. Still -PNA

I'd like to see the EPO go negative toward the end of February. At that point, due to shortening wave lengths, there would be a stronger shot at a return to cold. Overall, that seems to be a reasonable idea, but there could be other variables that shape the outcome that can't be well-forecast at this point in time.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not liking this delay. Really want to avoid a cold April.

I feel like the cold is on borrowed time. I see a 2015-type progression (just shift one month forward). I'm going with near normal mid-February, warm March, and torch April.

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I feel like the cold is on borrowed time. I see a 2015-type progression (just shift one month forward). I'm going with near normal mid-February, warm March, and torch April.

 

Haven’t you been calling for a mild E US starting in January with your 2017 and 2023 analogs? Not that what you’re saying can’t or won’t happen. But why should we believe you now?

 Mid Feb is looking NN or warmer for many areas. But then you skip all of the way to March and even April based on what exactly?