2025-2026 ENSO

[roardog]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The magnitude of the temperature swings are greater now than in the old days.

 

I’m having a hard time believing that. 

[michsnowfreak]

48 minutes ago, roardog said:

You make it sound like every winter used to have extended coast to coast cold as if we’ve never had a warm west/cold east winter before. Large temperature swings in winter certainly aren’t anything new either. 

Exactly. Didn't we hear that we need a volcano to get a cold winter? I don't really care how warm it is in the west or elsewhere, the bottom line this is a harsh winter where a lot of us live, and i dont need to hear about other areas anymore than i hear about them when we have mild amd they have cold. 

Its been very common to have a warm west/cold east or vice versa pattern since records began. Obviously there are extreme winters that are exceptions, but if every winter used to be "cold everywhere" its completely disregarding the basic ridge trough alignment that is a huge factor in weather pattern.

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

I’m having a hard time believing that. 

I brought up multiple times in the past how when we have a cold winter we will be seeing tons of posts about elsewhere on the globe that is warm rather than a honing in on the same local climate data from when its a warm winter. Sure enough, im hearing about the mean temp in Kitsissorsuit before im hearing about the mean temp in NYC.

[roardog]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The magnitude of the temperature swings are greater now than in the old days.

In order for the CONUS to have a top 5 to top 10 coldest winter there needs to be extensive cold across a large portion of the CONUS which hasn’t happened since the 1970s. 

These days we can’t get significant Arctic outbreaks without some extreme Arctic warmth like we have been experiencing this winter. No spots in the CONUS this January will see as extreme a departure for the entire month as portions of the Arctic have.

 

 

So how much warmer was Greenland this month compared to a month with -NAO blocking in let’s say the late ‘70s? I honestly have no idea. If I remember correctly the winter of ‘76-‘77 was one of or the warmest winter in Alaska which makes sense because it was so cold down here.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, roardog said:

I’m having a hard time believing that. 

2019 was the warmest January at Rockford, IL to feature a -25° or colder reading with the big temperature swings that month and a high over 50°.

Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 2019
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	788	333	-	-	1449	0	2.27	24.9	-
Average	25.4	10.7	18.1	-3.7	-	-	-	-	5.9
Normal	29.1	14.5	21.8	-
2019-01-01	32	23	27.5	4.2	37	0	T	T	0
2019-01-02	28	22	25.0	1.9	40	0	T	T	0
2019-01-03	39	20	29.5	6.5	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-04	46	26	36.0	13.2	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-05	50	26	38.0	15.3	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-06	40	26	33.0	10.5	32	0	T	0.0	0
2019-01-07	51	37	44.0	21.6	21	0	0.53	0.0	0
2019-01-08	44	21	32.5	10.3	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-09	23	16	19.5	-2.6	45	0	T	T	0
2019-01-10	27	14	20.5	-1.5	44	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-11	29	17	23.0	1.2	42	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-12	31	29	30.0	8.3	35	0	0.28	3.8	0
2019-01-13	32	26	29.0	7.4	36	0	0.01	0.2	4
2019-01-14	26	23	24.5	3.0	40	0	0.00	0.0	4
2019-01-15	33	24	28.5	7.0	36	0	T	T	4
2019-01-16	34	26	30.0	8.6	35	0	T	0.0	3
2019-01-17	33	27	30.0	8.7	35	0	T	T	3
2019-01-18	30	23	26.5	5.2	38	0	0.17	2.3	2
2019-01-19	24	6	15.0	-6.2	50	0	0.13	4.0	8
2019-01-20	10	-2	4.0	-17.2	61	0	0.00	0.0	8
2019-01-21	14	-7	3.5	-17.7	61	0	0.00	0.0	8
2019-01-22	31	13	22.0	0.8	43	0	0.24	1.5	7
2019-01-23	29	9	19.0	-2.2	46	0	0.23	4.2	11
2019-01-24	22	-2	10.0	-11.2	55	0	T	0.2	13
2019-01-25	1	-11	-5.0	-26.3	70	0	0.05	0.6	12
2019-01-26	5	-21	-8.0	-29.3	73	0	0.07	1.5	14
2019-01-27	8	-15	-3.5	-24.9	68	0	0.10	1.3	14
2019-01-28	21	9	15.0	-6.5	50	0	0.38	4.0	17
2019-01-29	10	-16	-3.0	-24.6	68	0	T	0.2	17
2019-01-30	-13	-25	-19.0	-40.7	84	0	0.00	0.0	17
2019-01-31	-2	-31	-16.5	-38.3	81	0	0.08	1.1	16

 

Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 1982
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	594	-47	-	-	1735	0	1.58	14.8	-
Average	19.2	-1.5	8.8	-13.0	-	-	-	-	6.0
Normal	29.1	14.5	21.8	-
1982-01-01	18	3	10.5	-12.8	54	0	0.00	0.0	3
1982-01-02	34	15	24.5	1.4	40	0	0.28	1.9	3
1982-01-03	34	20	27.0	4.0	38	0	0.18	0.3	4
1982-01-04	33	9	21.0	-1.8	44	0	0.16	1.3	4
1982-01-05	31	6	18.5	-4.2	46	0	0.00	0.0	4
1982-01-06	23	5	14.0	-8.5	51	0	0.08	1.1	4
1982-01-07	5	-10	-2.5	-24.9	67	0	0.00	0.0	5
1982-01-08	15	-10	2.5	-19.7	62	0	0.02	0.3	5
1982-01-09	5	-21	-8.0	-30.1	73	0	0.04	0.4	5
1982-01-10	-5	-27	-16.0	-38.0	81	0	0.00	0.0	5
1982-01-11	3	-6	-1.5	-23.3	66	0	0.00	0.0	5
1982-01-12	10	-8	1.0	-20.7	64	0	0.11	1.1	5
1982-01-13	16	-3	6.5	-15.1	58	0	0.07	0.9	6
1982-01-14	7	-15	-4.0	-25.5	69	0	0.00	0.1	6
1982-01-15	12	-18	-3.0	-24.5	68	0	0.04	0.6	6
1982-01-16	6	-24	-9.0	-30.4	74	0	0.00	0.0	6
1982-01-17	2	-25	-11.5	-32.8	76	0	0.11	2.1	6
1982-01-18	22	0	11.0	-10.3	54	0	0.00	0.0	8
1982-01-19	27	5	16.0	-5.2	49	0	0.00	0.0	7
1982-01-20	28	7	17.5	-3.7	47	0	0.09	0.7	7
1982-01-21	27	23	25.0	3.8	40	0	0.00	0.0	8
1982-01-22	37	18	27.5	6.3	37	0	0.16	0.3	7
1982-01-23	37	-1	18.0	-3.2	47	0	0.00	0.0	7
1982-01-24	-1	-9	-5.0	-26.2	70	0	0.02	0.3	7
1982-01-25	7	-9	-1.0	-22.3	66	0	0.08	2.1	9
1982-01-26	9	-18	-4.5	-25.8	69	0	0.00	0.0	9
1982-01-27	35	8	21.5	0.1	43	0	0.00	0.0	9
1982-01-28	34	6	20.0	-1.5	45	0	0.00	0.0	7
1982-01-29	32	6	19.0	-2.6	46	0	0.13	1.1	6
1982-01-30	31	18	24.5	2.8	40	0	0.00	0.0	7
1982-01-31	20	8	14.0	-7.8	51	0	0.01	0.2	6

 

Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 1985
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	712	87	-	-	1607	0	1.00	13.4	-
Average	23.0	2.8	12.9	-8.9	-	-	-	-	8.6
Normal	29.1	14.5	21.8	-
1985-01-01	31	2	16.5	-6.8	48	0	0.34	3.9	9
1985-01-02	10	-8	1.0	-22.1	64	0	0.00	0.0	9
1985-01-03	19	-14	2.5	-20.5	62	0	0.00	0.0	9
1985-01-04	32	-8	12.0	-10.8	53	0	0.00	0.0	9
1985-01-05	39	24	31.5	8.8	33	0	0.00	0.0	8
1985-01-06	37	24	30.5	8.0	34	0	0.00	0.0	7
1985-01-07	37	28	32.5	10.1	32	0	T	T	7
1985-01-08	28	8	18.0	-4.2	47	0	T	T	7
1985-01-09	22	8	15.0	-7.1	50	0	0.01	0.1	7
1985-01-10	24	15	19.5	-2.5	45	0	0.11	1.7	8
1985-01-11	20	4	12.0	-9.8	53	0	T	T	8
1985-01-12	14	0	7.0	-14.7	58	0	0.00	0.0	8
1985-01-13	28	9	18.5	-3.1	46	0	0.00	0.0	8
1985-01-14	35	4	19.5	-2.0	45	0	0.01	0.3	8
1985-01-15	15	-8	3.5	-18.0	61	0	0.00	0.0	8
1985-01-16	22	11	16.5	-4.9	48	0	0.15	2.2	8
1985-01-17	22	11	16.5	-4.8	48	0	0.14	1.9	10
1985-01-18	25	6	15.5	-5.8	49	0	0.02	0.4	11
1985-01-19	6	-24	-9.0	-30.2	74	0	T	T	11
1985-01-20	-5	-26	-15.5	-36.7	80	0	T	T	11
1985-01-21	17	-6	5.5	-15.7	59	0	T	T	11
1985-01-22	22	12	17.0	-4.2	48	0	T	T	10
1985-01-23	27	15	21.0	-0.2	44	0	T	T	8
1985-01-24	30	21	25.5	4.3	39	0	0.06	0.9	8
1985-01-25	29	-5	12.0	-9.3	53	0	0.01	0.2	9
1985-01-26	22	-10	6.0	-15.3	59	0	0.00	0.0	9
1985-01-27	30	8	19.0	-2.4	46	0	0.00	0.0	8
1985-01-28	15	-5	5.0	-16.5	60	0	0.00	0.0	8
1985-01-29	22	-6	8.0	-13.6	57	0	0.01	0.2	8
1985-01-30	28	9	18.5	-3.2	46	0	0.14	1.5	7
1985-01-31	9	-12	-1.5	-23.3	66	0	T	0.1	9

 

Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 2009
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	695	160	-	-	1580	0	0.81	12.6	-
Average	22.4	5.2	13.8	-8.0	-	-	-	-	5.1
Normal	29.1	14.5	21.8	-
2009-01-01	31	16	23.5	0.2	41	0	0.00	0.0	1
2009-01-02	30	14	22.0	-1.1	43	0	0.00	0.0	T
2009-01-03	37	16	26.5	3.5	38	0	T	0.0	T
2009-01-04	37	14	25.5	2.7	39	0	0.26	0.0	T
2009-01-05	29	9	19.0	-3.7	46	0	0.00	0.0	T
2009-01-06	31	17	24.0	1.5	41	0	0.06	0.8	T
2009-01-07	28	12	20.0	-2.4	45	0	T	0.2	1
2009-01-08	23	9	16.0	-6.2	49	0	T	T	1
2009-01-09	30	12	21.0	-1.1	44	0	0.24	2.7	3
2009-01-10	28	18	23.0	1.0	42	0	0.04	3.8	6
2009-01-11	19	8	13.5	-8.3	51	0	T	T	7
2009-01-12	27	7	17.0	-4.7	48	0	0.05	1.7	7
2009-01-13	22	-5	8.5	-13.1	56	0	0.01	0.4	7
2009-01-14	9	-6	1.5	-20.0	63	0	0.12	1.9	8
2009-01-15	-6	-17	-11.5	-33.0	76	0	0.00	0.0	9
2009-01-16	0	-25	-12.5	-33.9	77	0	0.00	0.0	9
2009-01-17	27	0	13.5	-7.8	51	0	T	T	8
2009-01-18	17	9	13.0	-8.3	52	0	T	0.1	8
2009-01-19	20	6	13.0	-8.2	52	0	0.02	0.4	8
2009-01-20	19	6	12.5	-8.7	52	0	0.00	0.0	7
2009-01-21	25	10	17.5	-3.7	47	0	0.00	0.0	7
2009-01-22	31	5	18.0	-3.2	47	0	0.00	0.0	7
2009-01-23	27	12	19.5	-1.7	45	0	0.00	0.0	6
2009-01-24	12	-5	3.5	-17.7	61	0	0.00	0.0	6
2009-01-25	11	-5	3.0	-18.3	62	0	0.00	0.0	6
2009-01-26	14	-4	5.0	-16.3	60	0	T	T	6
2009-01-27	15	4	9.5	-11.9	55	0	0.01	0.2	6
2009-01-28	16	1	8.5	-13.0	56	0	T	0.3	6
2009-01-29	29	15	22.0	0.4	43	0	T	0.1	6
2009-01-30	16	0	8.0	-13.7	57	0	T	T	6
2009-01-31	41	7	24.0	2.2	41	0	0.00	0.0	6

 

Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 1924
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	792	90	-	-	1566	0	1.27	9.5	-
Average	25.5	2.9	14.2	-7.6	-	-	-	-	3.8
Normal	29.1	14.5	21.8	-
1924-01-01	19	-13	3.0	-20.3	62	0	0.00	0.0	5
1924-01-02	24	-4	10.0	-13.1	55	0	T	T	5
1924-01-03	21	-6	7.5	-15.5	57	0	0.00	0.0	5
1924-01-04	12	-11	0.5	-22.3	64	0	T	T	5
1924-01-05	-11	-25	-18.0	-40.7	83	0	0.00	0.0	5
1924-01-06	23	-19	2.0	-20.5	63	0	0.00	0.0	5
1924-01-07	32	7	19.5	-2.9	45	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-08	44	13	28.5	6.3	36	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-09	41	35	38.0	15.9	27	0	0.16	0.0	M
1924-01-10	38	23	30.5	8.5	34	0	0.41	0.0	M
1924-01-11	24	17	20.5	-1.3	44	0	T	T	M
1924-01-12	21	7	14.0	-7.7	51	0	T	T	M
1924-01-13	18	-10	4.0	-17.6	61	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-14	25	9	17.0	-4.5	48	0	T	T	M
1924-01-15	35	20	27.5	6.0	37	0	0.00	0.0	T
1924-01-16	32	1	16.5	-4.9	48	0	0.68	9.5	M
1924-01-17	12	-15	-1.5	-22.8	66	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-18	20	-8	6.0	-15.3	59	0	T	T	M
1924-01-19	20	0	10.0	-11.2	55	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-20	6	-12	-3.0	-24.2	68	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-21	2	-21	-9.5	-30.7	74	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-22	36	-7	14.5	-6.7	50	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-23	33	16	24.5	3.3	40	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-24	36	11	23.5	2.3	41	0	0.02	T	M
1924-01-25	35	-8	13.5	-7.8	51	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-26	8	-8	0.0	-21.3	65	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-27	25	-6	9.5	-11.9	55	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-28	40	19	29.5	8.0	35	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-29	39	33	36.0	14.4	29	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-30	43	27	35.0	13.3	30	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-31	39	25	32.0	10.2	33	0	T	0.0	T

 

[roardog]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I brought up multiple times in the past how when we have a cold winter we will be seeing tons of posts about elsewhere on the globe that is warm rather than a honing in on the same local climate data from when its a warm winter. Sure enough, im hearing about the mean temp in Kitsissorsuit before im hearing about the mean temp in NYC.

After all the years of reading this board I feel like there’s three categories that the warmth cheering crowd falls into. 
1. Someone who genuinely likes warm weather. They’re always hoping for the warmest it can be. 
2. someone who knows the majority of the board likes cold and snow and hopes for warmth to see the misery of the cold lovers possibly because they are unhappy with their own life. 
3. Someone who cheers on warmth because they want the cold lovers to be upset with humans for putting CO2 into the atmosphere. Political motivation is not out of the question with this type of person. 

[MJO812]

Timber

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Suppression ? I thought you liked February . Too early to write off the whole month .

I'm not saying it will be awful....I just don't expect a blockbuster month.

[roardog]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2019 was the warmest January at Rockford, IL to feature a -25° or colder reading with the big temperature swings that month and a high over 50°.

Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 2019
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	788	333	-	-	1449	0	2.27	24.9	-
Average	25.4	10.7	18.1	-3.7	-	-	-	-	5.9
Normal	29.1	14.5	21.8	-
2019-01-01	32	23	27.5	4.2	37	0	T	T	0
2019-01-02	28	22	25.0	1.9	40	0	T	T	0
2019-01-03	39	20	29.5	6.5	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-04	46	26	36.0	13.2	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-05	50	26	38.0	15.3	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-06	40	26	33.0	10.5	32	0	T	0.0	0
2019-01-07	51	37	44.0	21.6	21	0	0.53	0.0	0
2019-01-08	44	21	32.5	10.3	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-09	23	16	19.5	-2.6	45	0	T	T	0
2019-01-10	27	14	20.5	-1.5	44	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-11	29	17	23.0	1.2	42	0	0.00	0.0	0
2019-01-12	31	29	30.0	8.3	35	0	0.28	3.8	0
2019-01-13	32	26	29.0	7.4	36	0	0.01	0.2	4
2019-01-14	26	23	24.5	3.0	40	0	0.00	0.0	4
2019-01-15	33	24	28.5	7.0	36	0	T	T	4
2019-01-16	34	26	30.0	8.6	35	0	T	0.0	3
2019-01-17	33	27	30.0	8.7	35	0	T	T	3
2019-01-18	30	23	26.5	5.2	38	0	0.17	2.3	2
2019-01-19	24	6	15.0	-6.2	50	0	0.13	4.0	8
2019-01-20	10	-2	4.0	-17.2	61	0	0.00	0.0	8
2019-01-21	14	-7	3.5	-17.7	61	0	0.00	0.0	8
2019-01-22	31	13	22.0	0.8	43	0	0.24	1.5	7
2019-01-23	29	9	19.0	-2.2	46	0	0.23	4.2	11
2019-01-24	22	-2	10.0	-11.2	55	0	T	0.2	13
2019-01-25	1	-11	-5.0	-26.3	70	0	0.05	0.6	12
2019-01-26	5	-21	-8.0	-29.3	73	0	0.07	1.5	14
2019-01-27	8	-15	-3.5	-24.9	68	0	0.10	1.3	14
2019-01-28	21	9	15.0	-6.5	50	0	0.38	4.0	17
2019-01-29	10	-16	-3.0	-24.6	68	0	T	0.2	17
2019-01-30	-13	-25	-19.0	-40.7	84	0	0.00	0.0	17
2019-01-31	-2	-31	-16.5	-38.3	81	0	0.08	1.1	16

 

Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 1982
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	594	-47	-	-	1735	0	1.58	14.8	-
Average	19.2	-1.5	8.8	-13.0	-	-	-	-	6.0
Normal	29.1	14.5	21.8	-
1982-01-01	18	3	10.5	-12.8	54	0	0.00	0.0	3
1982-01-02	34	15	24.5	1.4	40	0	0.28	1.9	3
1982-01-03	34	20	27.0	4.0	38	0	0.18	0.3	4
1982-01-04	33	9	21.0	-1.8	44	0	0.16	1.3	4
1982-01-05	31	6	18.5	-4.2	46	0	0.00	0.0	4
1982-01-06	23	5	14.0	-8.5	51	0	0.08	1.1	4
1982-01-07	5	-10	-2.5	-24.9	67	0	0.00	0.0	5
1982-01-08	15	-10	2.5	-19.7	62	0	0.02	0.3	5
1982-01-09	5	-21	-8.0	-30.1	73	0	0.04	0.4	5
1982-01-10	-5	-27	-16.0	-38.0	81	0	0.00	0.0	5
1982-01-11	3	-6	-1.5	-23.3	66	0	0.00	0.0	5
1982-01-12	10	-8	1.0	-20.7	64	0	0.11	1.1	5
1982-01-13	16	-3	6.5	-15.1	58	0	0.07	0.9	6
1982-01-14	7	-15	-4.0	-25.5	69	0	0.00	0.1	6
1982-01-15	12	-18	-3.0	-24.5	68	0	0.04	0.6	6
1982-01-16	6	-24	-9.0	-30.4	74	0	0.00	0.0	6
1982-01-17	2	-25	-11.5	-32.8	76	0	0.11	2.1	6
1982-01-18	22	0	11.0	-10.3	54	0	0.00	0.0	8
1982-01-19	27	5	16.0	-5.2	49	0	0.00	0.0	7
1982-01-20	28	7	17.5	-3.7	47	0	0.09	0.7	7
1982-01-21	27	23	25.0	3.8	40	0	0.00	0.0	8
1982-01-22	37	18	27.5	6.3	37	0	0.16	0.3	7
1982-01-23	37	-1	18.0	-3.2	47	0	0.00	0.0	7
1982-01-24	-1	-9	-5.0	-26.2	70	0	0.02	0.3	7
1982-01-25	7	-9	-1.0	-22.3	66	0	0.08	2.1	9
1982-01-26	9	-18	-4.5	-25.8	69	0	0.00	0.0	9
1982-01-27	35	8	21.5	0.1	43	0	0.00	0.0	9
1982-01-28	34	6	20.0	-1.5	45	0	0.00	0.0	7
1982-01-29	32	6	19.0	-2.6	46	0	0.13	1.1	6
1982-01-30	31	18	24.5	2.8	40	0	0.00	0.0	7
1982-01-31	20	8	14.0	-7.8	51	0	0.01	0.2	6

 

Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 1985
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	712	87	-	-	1607	0	1.00	13.4	-
Average	23.0	2.8	12.9	-8.9	-	-	-	-	8.6
Normal	29.1	14.5	21.8	-
1985-01-01	31	2	16.5	-6.8	48	0	0.34	3.9	9
1985-01-02	10	-8	1.0	-22.1	64	0	0.00	0.0	9
1985-01-03	19	-14	2.5	-20.5	62	0	0.00	0.0	9
1985-01-04	32	-8	12.0	-10.8	53	0	0.00	0.0	9
1985-01-05	39	24	31.5	8.8	33	0	0.00	0.0	8
1985-01-06	37	24	30.5	8.0	34	0	0.00	0.0	7
1985-01-07	37	28	32.5	10.1	32	0	T	T	7
1985-01-08	28	8	18.0	-4.2	47	0	T	T	7
1985-01-09	22	8	15.0	-7.1	50	0	0.01	0.1	7
1985-01-10	24	15	19.5	-2.5	45	0	0.11	1.7	8
1985-01-11	20	4	12.0	-9.8	53	0	T	T	8
1985-01-12	14	0	7.0	-14.7	58	0	0.00	0.0	8
1985-01-13	28	9	18.5	-3.1	46	0	0.00	0.0	8
1985-01-14	35	4	19.5	-2.0	45	0	0.01	0.3	8
1985-01-15	15	-8	3.5	-18.0	61	0	0.00	0.0	8
1985-01-16	22	11	16.5	-4.9	48	0	0.15	2.2	8
1985-01-17	22	11	16.5	-4.8	48	0	0.14	1.9	10
1985-01-18	25	6	15.5	-5.8	49	0	0.02	0.4	11
1985-01-19	6	-24	-9.0	-30.2	74	0	T	T	11
1985-01-20	-5	-26	-15.5	-36.7	80	0	T	T	11
1985-01-21	17	-6	5.5	-15.7	59	0	T	T	11
1985-01-22	22	12	17.0	-4.2	48	0	T	T	10
1985-01-23	27	15	21.0	-0.2	44	0	T	T	8
1985-01-24	30	21	25.5	4.3	39	0	0.06	0.9	8
1985-01-25	29	-5	12.0	-9.3	53	0	0.01	0.2	9
1985-01-26	22	-10	6.0	-15.3	59	0	0.00	0.0	9
1985-01-27	30	8	19.0	-2.4	46	0	0.00	0.0	8
1985-01-28	15	-5	5.0	-16.5	60	0	0.00	0.0	8
1985-01-29	22	-6	8.0	-13.6	57	0	0.01	0.2	8
1985-01-30	28	9	18.5	-3.2	46	0	0.14	1.5	7
1985-01-31	9	-12	-1.5	-23.3	66	0	T	0.1	9

 

Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 2009
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	695	160	-	-	1580	0	0.81	12.6	-
Average	22.4	5.2	13.8	-8.0	-	-	-	-	5.1
Normal	29.1	14.5	21.8	-
2009-01-01	31	16	23.5	0.2	41	0	0.00	0.0	1
2009-01-02	30	14	22.0	-1.1	43	0	0.00	0.0	T
2009-01-03	37	16	26.5	3.5	38	0	T	0.0	T
2009-01-04	37	14	25.5	2.7	39	0	0.26	0.0	T
2009-01-05	29	9	19.0	-3.7	46	0	0.00	0.0	T
2009-01-06	31	17	24.0	1.5	41	0	0.06	0.8	T
2009-01-07	28	12	20.0	-2.4	45	0	T	0.2	1
2009-01-08	23	9	16.0	-6.2	49	0	T	T	1
2009-01-09	30	12	21.0	-1.1	44	0	0.24	2.7	3
2009-01-10	28	18	23.0	1.0	42	0	0.04	3.8	6
2009-01-11	19	8	13.5	-8.3	51	0	T	T	7
2009-01-12	27	7	17.0	-4.7	48	0	0.05	1.7	7
2009-01-13	22	-5	8.5	-13.1	56	0	0.01	0.4	7
2009-01-14	9	-6	1.5	-20.0	63	0	0.12	1.9	8
2009-01-15	-6	-17	-11.5	-33.0	76	0	0.00	0.0	9
2009-01-16	0	-25	-12.5	-33.9	77	0	0.00	0.0	9
2009-01-17	27	0	13.5	-7.8	51	0	T	T	8
2009-01-18	17	9	13.0	-8.3	52	0	T	0.1	8
2009-01-19	20	6	13.0	-8.2	52	0	0.02	0.4	8
2009-01-20	19	6	12.5	-8.7	52	0	0.00	0.0	7
2009-01-21	25	10	17.5	-3.7	47	0	0.00	0.0	7
2009-01-22	31	5	18.0	-3.2	47	0	0.00	0.0	7
2009-01-23	27	12	19.5	-1.7	45	0	0.00	0.0	6
2009-01-24	12	-5	3.5	-17.7	61	0	0.00	0.0	6
2009-01-25	11	-5	3.0	-18.3	62	0	0.00	0.0	6
2009-01-26	14	-4	5.0	-16.3	60	0	T	T	6
2009-01-27	15	4	9.5	-11.9	55	0	0.01	0.2	6
2009-01-28	16	1	8.5	-13.0	56	0	T	0.3	6
2009-01-29	29	15	22.0	0.4	43	0	T	0.1	6
2009-01-30	16	0	8.0	-13.7	57	0	T	T	6
2009-01-31	41	7	24.0	2.2	41	0	0.00	0.0	6

 

Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 1924
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	792	90	-	-	1566	0	1.27	9.5	-
Average	25.5	2.9	14.2	-7.6	-	-	-	-	3.8
Normal	29.1	14.5	21.8	-
1924-01-01	19	-13	3.0	-20.3	62	0	0.00	0.0	5
1924-01-02	24	-4	10.0	-13.1	55	0	T	T	5
1924-01-03	21	-6	7.5	-15.5	57	0	0.00	0.0	5
1924-01-04	12	-11	0.5	-22.3	64	0	T	T	5
1924-01-05	-11	-25	-18.0	-40.7	83	0	0.00	0.0	5
1924-01-06	23	-19	2.0	-20.5	63	0	0.00	0.0	5
1924-01-07	32	7	19.5	-2.9	45	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-08	44	13	28.5	6.3	36	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-09	41	35	38.0	15.9	27	0	0.16	0.0	M
1924-01-10	38	23	30.5	8.5	34	0	0.41	0.0	M
1924-01-11	24	17	20.5	-1.3	44	0	T	T	M
1924-01-12	21	7	14.0	-7.7	51	0	T	T	M
1924-01-13	18	-10	4.0	-17.6	61	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-14	25	9	17.0	-4.5	48	0	T	T	M
1924-01-15	35	20	27.5	6.0	37	0	0.00	0.0	T
1924-01-16	32	1	16.5	-4.9	48	0	0.68	9.5	M
1924-01-17	12	-15	-1.5	-22.8	66	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-18	20	-8	6.0	-15.3	59	0	T	T	M
1924-01-19	20	0	10.0	-11.2	55	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-20	6	-12	-3.0	-24.2	68	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-21	2	-21	-9.5	-30.7	74	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-22	36	-7	14.5	-6.7	50	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-23	33	16	24.5	3.3	40	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-24	36	11	23.5	2.3	41	0	0.02	T	M
1924-01-25	35	-8	13.5	-7.8	51	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-26	8	-8	0.0	-21.3	65	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-27	25	-6	9.5	-11.9	55	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-28	40	19	29.5	8.0	35	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-29	39	33	36.0	14.4	29	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-30	43	27	35.0	13.3	30	0	0.00	0.0	M
1924-01-31	39	25	32.0	10.2	33	0	T	0.0	T

 

I’m not sure using one month from one city seven years ago really proves much. 

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, roardog said:

So how much warmer was Greenland this month compared to a month with -NAO blocking in let’s say the late ‘70s? I honestly have no idea. If I remember correctly the winter of ‘76-‘77 was one of or the warmest winter in Alaska which makes sense because it was so cold down here.

This January was much warmer in the Arctic and the CONUS than 1977.

 

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Suppression ? I thought you liked February . Too early to write off the whole month .

Right I thought 2015 was coming through the door. Now it's cold and dry? Wth

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, roardog said:

I’m not sure using one month from one city seven years ago really proves much. 

That is just one example. The total amount across many locations and timeframes is too vast for me to list in one thread. But I have plenty of more examples for other individual locations and time periods. 

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This January was much warmer in the Arctic and the CONUS than 1977.

 

I was wondering if there’s a way to get Greenland’s average temp over a monthly period and compare to this January. There probably isn’t. This January in the US will be much warmer than 1977 because the planet is warmer and the pattern wasn’t even cold for the first half or so of the month. Look at Alaska. It was very warm in 1977 and actually will be below normal in much of the state this year. 

[e pluribus unum]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This January was much warmer in the Arctic and the CONUS than 1977.

 

 

Salt Lake City is at 0.1" of snow this winter with no subfreezing highs this season thus far. Both are literally unprecedented through this point of the season there.

To your point, this season does fit pretty well with the concept of a warming world. Cold anomalies will obviously still exist to some extent, but there's a good chance that there will still be a yet more extreme standard deviation in the warm direction in some adjacent region. 

[MJO812]

Another cold month 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Right I thought 2015 was coming through the door. Now it's cold and dry? Wth

You saw my forecast snow totals for the season, right? Just bc a particular analog has some value doesn't mean it's going to be a replica season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, roardog said:

After all the years of reading this board I feel like there’s three categories that the warmth cheering crowd falls into. 
1. Someone who genuinely likes warm weather. They’re always hoping for the warmest it can be. 
2. someone who knows the majority of the board likes cold and snow and hopes for warmth to see the misery of the cold lovers possibly because they are unhappy with their own life. 
3. Someone who cheers on warmth because they want the cold lovers to be upset with humans for putting CO2 into the atmosphere. Political motivation is not out of the question with this type of person. 

4. The resident contrarian..which on this board is anti-cold and snow.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, e pluribus unum said:

 

Salt Lake City is at 0.1" of snow this winter with no subfreezing highs this season thus far. Both are literally unprecedented through this point of the season there.

To your point, this season does fit pretty well with the concept of a warming world. Cold anomalies will obviously still exist to some extent, but there's a good chance that there will still be a yet more extreme standard deviation in the warm direction in some adjacent region. 

The SLC snowlessness is crazy. But again. It doesn't take away from the persistent and widespread cold the east is having. Or the equally unprecedented powder snowstorms hitting the deep south. As someone who has read these boards for nearly 25 years, its incredible how during winters when the eastern US is cold, we suddenly get a massive influx of data recited from random areas never before discussed on here. Data that, of course, is anamously warm for said random areas.

[NyWxGuy]

4 hours ago, e pluribus unum said:

 

Salt Lake City is at 0.1" of snow this winter with no subfreezing highs this season thus far. Both are literally unprecedented through this point of the season there.

To your point, this season does fit pretty well with the concept of a warming world. Cold anomalies will obviously still exist to some extent, but there's a good chance that there will still be a yet more extreme standard deviation in the warm direction in some adjacent region. 

The record warmth is almost always the story over the record cold because recess warmth happens more often these days than record cold. The record warmth and dry winter in the western US (and even parts of Central US) should be an even bigger story because of how unprecedented it is. This cold blast pales in comparison 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, roardog said:

So how much warmer was Greenland this month compared to a month with -NAO blocking in let’s say the late ‘70s? I honestly have no idea. If I remember correctly the winter of ‘76-‘77 was one of or the warmest winter in Alaska which makes sense because it was so cold down here.

I never knew that....and I certainly never heard that on here. But I looked it up and you are correct. The winter of 1976-77 was by far the warmest on record in Alaska. Oh, another thing that's never, ever brought up. The deep cold alaska was in during March 2012. I just can't figure out why we were never discussing those things The many, many times 2012 or 1977 have been brought up 

[jaxjagman]

36 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

The record warmth is almost always the story over the record cold because recess warmth happens more often these days than record cold. The record warmth and dry winter in the western US (and even parts of Central US) should be an even bigger story because of how unprecedented it is. This cold blast pales in comparison 

Dont agree with this.This is more or less some hybrid weather pattern this winter,plus while it can happen the atmospheric river into the west is more Nino than NINA,you cant possibly say the west has been dry this winter,California is over 300% in some parts of abnormal QPFS

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I never knew that....and I certainly never heard that on here. But I looked it up and you are correct. The winter of 1976-77 was by far the warmest on record in Alaska. Oh, another thing that's never, ever brought up. The deep cold alaska was in during March 2012. I just can't figure out why we were never discussing those things The many, many times 2012 or 1977 have been brought up 

The odd thing about 2012 and 1977 is that both ended up producing record warm springs in most of the eastern half to two-thirds of the US.

[snowfan789]

Significant portions of the West are record warm and snowless to date for this winter season. It is not unreasonable to describe that as a bigger weather and perhaps climate story than a somewhat cold and somewhat snowy winter in some parts of the approximately eastern third of the country only that is for the most part not record breaking. If you only care about the weather in your own backyard, cool. But if you’re genuinely interested in the weather and climate, then the superlative status of the winter in much of the West presumably would be something you’d deem worthy of attention. It is a major weather-related issue at the present with real and lasting repercussions for the environment and economy in a large portion of the country.

[e pluribus unum]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The SLC snowlessness is crazy. But again. It doesn't take away from the persistent and widespread cold the east is having. Or the equally unprecedented powder snowstorms hitting the deep south. As someone who has read these boards for nearly 25 years, its incredible how during winters when the eastern US is cold, we suddenly get a massive influx of data recited from random areas never before discussed on here. Data that, of course, is anamously warm for said random areas.

That's because some of the warmth in the West this season is all time record level and objectively more statistically significant. The cold in the Eastern U.S. this season really isn't even close to unprecedented. That's the idea, that the warm anomalies in a warming world are simply going to outweigh the downstream/upstream cold anomalies. 

The West has also had some decent cold winter stretches in the last decade (2016-17, February 2019, 2022-23) but nothing as historically impressive as the warmth that's happened this season thus far out here. And in those stretches the East was generally seeing historic levels of winter warmth that outweighed it. 

[bluewave]

Here is another example of how in the past we often had coast to coast cold at durations lasting a month to occasionally the entire DJF winter season.

December 2025 was the 39th coldest in the Northeast and the same average temperature of 24.2° as 2017 was. But this is the first time an average Northeast December temperature in this range occurred with all-time warmth in the West near +15° above the long term averages.

Back in 2017 we did have some warmth in the Southwest but nothing as extreme as this December was.

The other years with that were within about 0.6°which the Northeast was this December had the cold extending to the West Coast. 

So we can see the warmth expanding out of the Southwest over time and increasing in coverage and magnitude. 
 

 

[GaWx]

1. I estimate that the January 2026 PNA will calculate to +0.5.

2. Jan NAO calculated to be negative. This combined with the Dec -NAO and the progged first half of Feb’s -NAO means the first sub -0.25 DJF NAO is just about assured for a winter without it being weak sunspotwise since 1978-9!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, e pluribus unum said:

That's because some of the warmth in the West this season is all time record level and objectively more statistically significant. The cold in the Eastern U.S. this season really isn't even close to unprecedented. That's the idea, that the warm anomalies in a warming world are simply going to outweigh the downstream/upstream cold anomalies. 

The West has also had some decent cold winter stretches in the last decade (2016-17, February 2019, 2022-23) but nothing as historically impressive as the warmth that's happened this season thus far out here. And in those stretches the East was generally seeing historic levels of winter warmth that outweighed it. 

Yeah, the last time we had record warmth in the West, at least the East had some historical cold.

As cold as this winter has been in the East, it doesn't hold a candle to 13-14 and 14-15.

[MJO812]

I dont think alot of people forecasted a very cold winter in the east.  I think the big disruption to the PV in late November changed the whole winter pattern .

[GaWx]

 In the Arctic (>80N), 1/2026 comes in very slightly colder than 1/1977:

 

2026:

 

1977:

 

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

8 hours ago, e pluribus unum said:

That's because some of the warmth in the West this season is all time record level and objectively more statistically significant. The cold in the Eastern U.S. this season really isn't even close to unprecedented. That's the idea, that the warm anomalies in a warming world are simply going to outweigh the downstream/upstream cold anomalies. 

The West has also had some decent cold winter stretches in the last decade (2016-17, February 2019, 2022-23) but nothing as historically impressive as the warmth that's happened this season thus far out here. And in those stretches the East was generally seeing historic levels of winter warmth that outweighed it. 

This times a million. It takes a miracle, extremely early season SSW just to get a classically cold/snowy winter in the east now, it's pretty sad honestly.