2025-2026 ENSO

[LakePaste25]

The Nina is still there. But this indo-pacific warm pool analysis is intriguing to me. Compared to this time in 2023, the warm pool is expanded much further east. Not quite Feb 2015 levels, but it’s close. If we do regress back to a -PNA, I could see the cold dumping into the mountain west or the high plains. I don’t think it’ll be as far west as 2023. If you factor in the blocking that keeps showing up, it might make things interesting. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The Nina is still there. But this indo-pacific warm pool analysis is intriguing to me. Compared to this time in 2023, the warm pool is expanded much further east. Not quite Feb 2015 levels, but it’s close. If we do regress back to a -PNA, I could see the cold dumping into the mountain west or the high plains. I don’t think it’ll be as far west as 2023. If you factor in the blocking that keeps showing up, it might make things interesting. 

 

It's still a bit west of 2015 IMHO...it does look like we may finally be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, but not enough for this season IMHO. Next year could be great.

[LakePaste25]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's still a bit west of 2015 IMHO...it does look like we may finally be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, but not enough for this season IMHO. Next year could be great.

Yeah that’s why I’m thinking we still regress to a -PNA, but not as severe as 2023. The blocking will also help if it persists.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

Yeah that’s why I’m thinking we still regress to a -PNA, but not as severe as 2023. The blocking will also help if it persists.

-PNA for February is non-negotiable IMHO....always has been.

[LakePaste25]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-PNA for February is non-negotiable IMHO....always has been.

The deep cold and persistent snowpack has been nice, but I also wouldn’t mind getting back in on the action here on the I-90 great lakes corridor. We’ll see how it goes.

[schoeppeya]

Pretty incredible PV split the GFS is trying to show:

 

[BlizzardWx]

Interesting on some guidance, like last nights ECMWF, how quickly the mid level heights across higher latitudes increase after the PV split. Could be coincidence but I hope we can get this going in February rather than waiting till March to see impacts. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/3/2026 at 6:38 AM, snowman19 said:

Looks like Ray @40/70 Benchmark was right about the SPV strengthening in January……
 

 

On 1/8/2026 at 10:21 AM, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark I’m assuming you disagree with Eric’s take that there’s going to be a big SPV strengthening then coupling with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO late winter into spring?
 

 

 

 

 

 

On 1/8/2026 at 11:35 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes. But it's probably a binary outcome...meaning one or the other.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Tough season for Mr. Webb.

[BlizzardWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't pay much attention to the OP.

That's fair, but other ensemble guidance is mostly headed that way too. Will it verify? That is another story but in my mind you usually see hints showing up before it happens, so I am at least glad to see it starting to show up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

That's fair, but other ensemble guidance is mostly headed that way too. Will it verify? That is another story but in my mind you usually see hints showing up before it happens, so I am at least glad to see it starting to show up. 

Oh...I misunderstood your post...I thought you were saying heights in the mid latitudes. Yes, since we are already in deep -NAO/-AO, there should be much of a lag. I mentioned that in my update on Wednesday.

My bad...agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Last fall, I assumed that the strong PV accompanying the +TNH would be more coupled with the troposphere, so I thought we would have +NAO, that is why I originally forecast the blocking to redevelop for early March.

I missed the late January -NAO accompanying the +TNH, which is why it was colder than even I had thought.

[SnowGoose69]

Indications the QBO may be more E next winter, if that happens and the El Nino is over 1.5 may not be as good as we had been hoping.  Might be glad in the future we did well this winter.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-PNA for February is non-negotiable IMHO....always has been.

Yea seems like a coast to coast type of pattern. Which is not terrible for this time of year makes me happy to see a potential moist pattern finally trying to set up regardless of snow or rain. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Indications the QBO may be more E next winter, if that happens and the El Nino is over 1.5 may not be as good as we had been hoping.  Might be glad in the future we did well this winter.

That would be surprising.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea seems like a coast to coast type of pattern. Which is not terrible for this time of year makes me happy to see a potential moist pattern finally trying to set up regardless of snow or rain. 

My co-worker and I call that the pre AGW pattern.  Would see that type of pattern all the time pre 2000s...especially pre 1990.  Its become quite rare now.  It always seems some sector of country is a torch and some sector is very cold when we are not wall to wall warm in winter.

[so_whats_happening]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

My co-worker and I call that the pre AGW pattern.  Would see that type of pattern all the time pre 2000s...especially pre 1990.  Its become quite rare now.  It always seems some sector of country is a torch and some sector is very cold when we are not wall to wall warm in winter.

Fair point it really has been awhile for that type of pattern. There is a large amount of cold air this year which I have been told ad infinitum that this will not be a thing going forward. The longevity is something else this year.

[so_whats_happening]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That would be surprising.

We are officially in a WQBO descending phase so we should be right near that transition come next winter so may be a little interesting to start off. Not sure about the transition to full on Nino but plenty of time to discuss.

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

We are officially in a WQBO descending phase so we should be right near that transition come next winter so may be a little interesting to start off. Not sure about the transition to full on Nino but plenty of time to discuss.

The Euro is probably overdone on magnitude, but I could see a 1.6 or 1.7 peak still which is a tad too much for the East...you ideally want around 0.8-1.2 for the best winters in El Ninos.

[jm1220]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

NYC now up to 22” season to date vs 15” avg and the most as of this point since 2015-6! It’s been one heck of a season so far, based mainly on 3 significant snows.

 If they get avg the rest of the way, they’d have a total of 35”. Fwiw, my prediction for the season total, which was made after the 1st storm last month and is my only prediction made for this, is 40”.

And NYC should be a few inches higher, the 2 Dec storms were pretty blatant under measurements at Central Park. But I agree, disappointment tomorrow aside it’s been a great winter so far. 

[brooklynwx99]

thanks for the kind words, snowman. always appreciated

hopefully we see a continuation of this cold and wintry pattern… the beating the SPV is going to take likely helps us there 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Indications the QBO may be more E next winter, if that happens and the El Nino is over 1.5 may not be as good as we had been hoping.  Might be glad in the future we did well this winter.

Do you mean the QBO will be west (+)?

For the sub -20 December QBOs at 30 mb (i.e., very strong E QBO), what was the following Dec’s QBO?

1965: -21; 1966: +13

1974: -23; 1975: +11

2005: -25; 2006: +6

2014: -25; 2015: +11

2021: -22; 2022: +12

2023: -23; 2024: +13

2025: -27; 2026: ?

 
 So, for all 7 Decembers with a sub -20 QBO, all of the subsequent Decembers were +6 to +13, which is intuitive based on the normal cycle length. Thus, I see almost no way next winter will have anything near an east QBO.

 But, again, did you mean west (+) QBO? If you really meant E (-), on what are you basing that? Are you aware of the history that I’m posting here?

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

[George001]

3 hours ago, schoeppeya said:

That's exactly the response I expected from somebody who results to insults and name-calling every time somebody disagrees with them. For the sake of not derailing anything I will leave you alone, but after you've been horrifically wrong on every "forecast" you've had for this winter, I would suggest a little situational awareness and a little more humility in your approach, for those of us just trying to learn from the "smart" people it makes the thread really hard to read.

Having civil disagreements is fine, but insulting and verbally abusing meteorologists like that should be ban worthy. The expertise of those who do this for a living and work in the field is incredibly valuable, it’s important to keep in mind the mets here are providing us with information they paid tens of thousands of dollars to learn for free. Yes, they bust sometimes, that’s the nature of the field. Forming a hypothesis, testing it, rejecting it when incorrect, and updating it as you get new information is not a moral failing, it’s literally a core part of the scientific method.

@brooklynwx99 has been on this board for years. Despite a lot of the material he and the other mets here post being over my head, I have noticed his predictions have gotten more accurate over the years. From the perspective of an outsider, it looks like he made incorrect predictions, learned from them, and adapted his process over time. I view him as a story of a younger meteorologist (he mentioned he’s a younger guy on another server I was in) successfully applying the scientific method and becoming better and better at his job because of it. That’s a success story, its exactly what smart and analytically minded people do. 

In the interest of optimizing the pursuit of knowledge, it’s in all of our best interests to not drive the mets here off this board, and to stop moralizing the scientific process. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro is probably overdone on magnitude, but I could see a 1.6 or 1.7 peak still which is a tad too much for the East...you ideally want around 0.8-1.2 for the best winters in El Ninos.

Depends on orientation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Do you mean the QBO will be west (+)?

For the sub -20 December QBOs at 30 mb (i.e., very strong E QBO), what was the following Dec’s QBO?

1965: -21; 1966: +13

1974: -23; 1975: +11

2005: -25; 2006: +6

2014: -25; 2015: +11

2021: -22; 2022: +12

2023: -23; 2024: +13

2025: -27; 2026: ?

 
 So, for all 7 Decembers with a sub -20 QBO, all of the subsequent Decembers were +6 to +13, which is intuitive based on the normal cycle length. Thus, I see almost no way next winter will have anything near an east QBO.

 But, again, did you mean west (+) QBO? If you really meant E (-), on what are you basing that? Are you aware of the history that I’m posting here?

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

That is my inclination.