LakePaste25 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The Nina is still there. But this indo-pacific warm pool analysis is intriguing to me. Compared to this time in 2023, the warm pool is expanded much further east. Not quite Feb 2015 levels, but it’s close. If we do regress back to a -PNA, I could see the cold dumping into the mountain west or the high plains. I don’t think it’ll be as far west as 2023. If you factor in the blocking that keeps showing up, it might make things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 35 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: The Nina is still there. But this indo-pacific warm pool analysis is intriguing to me. Compared to this time in 2023, the warm pool is expanded much further east. Not quite Feb 2015 levels, but it’s close. If we do regress back to a -PNA, I could see the cold dumping into the mountain west or the high plains. I don’t think it’ll be as far west as 2023. If you factor in the blocking that keeps showing up, it might make things interesting. It's still a bit west of 2015 IMHO...it does look like we may finally be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, but not enough for this season IMHO. Next year could be great. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's still a bit west of 2015 IMHO...it does look like we may finally be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, but not enough for this season IMHO. Next year could be great. Yeah that’s why I’m thinking we still regress to a -PNA, but not as severe as 2023. The blocking will also help if it persists. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said: Yeah that’s why I’m thinking we still regress to a -PNA, but not as severe as 2023. The blocking will also help if it persists. -PNA for February is non-negotiable IMHO....always has been. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: -PNA for February is non-negotiable IMHO....always has been. The deep cold and persistent snowpack has been nice, but I also wouldn’t mind getting back in on the action here on the I-90 great lakes corridor. We’ll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Pretty incredible PV split the GFS is trying to show: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted 41 minutes ago Share Posted 41 minutes ago Interesting on some guidance, like last nights ECMWF, how quickly the mid level heights across higher latitudes increase after the PV split. Could be coincidence but I hope we can get this going in February rather than waiting till March to see impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 36 minutes ago Author Share Posted 36 minutes ago On 1/3/2026 at 6:38 AM, snowman19 said: Looks like Ray @40/70 Benchmark was right about the SPV strengthening in January…… On 1/8/2026 at 10:21 AM, snowman19 said: @40/70 Benchmark I’m assuming you disagree with Eric’s take that there’s going to be a big SPV strengthening then coupling with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO late winter into spring? On 1/8/2026 at 11:35 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. But it's probably a binary outcome...meaning one or the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 31 minutes ago Author Share Posted 31 minutes ago Tough season for Mr. Webb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted 30 minutes ago Share Posted 30 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't pay much attention to the OP. That's fair, but other ensemble guidance is mostly headed that way too. Will it verify? That is another story but in my mind you usually see hints showing up before it happens, so I am at least glad to see it starting to show up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 28 minutes ago Author Share Posted 28 minutes ago 2 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said: That's fair, but other ensemble guidance is mostly headed that way too. Will it verify? That is another story but in my mind you usually see hints showing up before it happens, so I am at least glad to see it starting to show up. Oh...I misunderstood your post...I thought you were saying heights in the mid latitudes. Yes, since we are already in deep -NAO/-AO, there should be much of a lag. I mentioned that in my update on Wednesday. My bad...agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 25 minutes ago Author Share Posted 25 minutes ago Last fall, I assumed that the strong PV accompanying the +TNH would be more coupled with the troposphere, so I thought we would have +NAO, that is why I originally forecast the blocking to redevelop for early March. I missed the late January -NAO accompanying the +TNH, which is why it was colder than even I had thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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