2025-2026 ENSO

[Krs4Lfe]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 After the +PNA leaning week of 1/12-18, which gives the SE NN/coldest anomalies of E US, today’s Euro Weeklies continue with the idea of a stronger than avg gradient N to S. The -PNA returns ~1/17 and the week of 1/19-25 has the SE with NN in NC to slightly AN GA and it has moderately BN in New England. The subsequent 3 weeks all warm due to a continued -PNA and warm to NN NE and modestly AN SE though one can see the CADdies in the SE are helped on certain days thus keeping them only barely AN in the means.

 The Weeklies now go through Feb 15th. So far, they’re showing no sign of a cold Feb anywhere. But hopefully that will drastically change!

 I sure hope it’s prog of a -PNA 1/17-2/15 is going to be dead wrong!

While some change to the weeklies is likely, La Nina’s are rarely cold in February. La Nina’s are very front loaded and usually torch the east by February. A SSW could bring some cold after February (regardless of the ENSO state) but Februarys in La Nina’s are notoriously warm. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

You love the weeklies.  It hasn't been accurate at all .

1. I just present what I see, whether something I want or not on whatever I’m presenting.

2. It’s the best we have for long range guidance. Nothing in the long range does great because that’s beyond the models’ abilities.

3. EW is a tool and nothing near a crystal ball. But it often gives a halfway decent idea of what’s to come. Look at what it showed last year on this day, which all verified pretty well:

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We just need the PNA to be in our favor which it looks like it might . 

 Per WxBell’s version of the GEFS’ mean PNA, the trend of the last few days for both the length and strength of the midmonth +PNA has been a sharp increase: watch as the midmonth green line above 0 on each of these images gets longer and peaks higher:

- 0Z 1/2 run: <1 day >0 (Jan 12th); max amp +0.1 (Jan 12th)

 

- 0Z 1/3 run: 3 days>0 (Jan 11th-13th); max amp +0.5 (Jan 12th)

 

- 0Z 1/4 run: 4.5 days>0 (Jan 10th-14th); max amp +0.7 (Jan 11th)

 

-0Z 1/5 run: 6 days>0 (Jan 9th-15th); max amp +1.2 (Jan 13th)

 

-18Z 1/5 run: 8 days>0 (Jan 9th-17th); max amp +1.7 (Jan 14th)

 

Here are those 5 images in a GIF:

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

While some change to the weeklies is likely, La Nina’s are rarely cold in February. La Nina’s are very front loaded and usually torch the east by February. A SSW could bring some cold after February (regardless of the ENSO state) but Februarys in La Nina’s are notoriously warm. 

February in a nina can have some good winter storms here. I know it's warmer in the east but idk about "torch". Does anyone have a temp composite of all nina Februarys?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Not really a torch in the mean

2 months after a -NAO December weights it a little cooler

NAO has been -0.65 or lower 4 straight months

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anywho....here was my progression for January from last fall....doesn't look half bad.

                                                     

               January 10-13                      January 13-16                        January 18-21                                                                        

Ridge Over CONUS & Southern Canada Retrogrades Towards Alaska

 

                January 23-26                       January 28-31            Early February

 

               

 

 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

While some change to the weeklies is likely, La Nina’s are rarely cold in February. La Nina’s are very front loaded and usually torch the east by February. A SSW could bring some cold after February (regardless of the ENSO state) but Februarys in La Nina’s are notoriously warm. 

La Nina is basically dead. I have no clue why you and snowman19 keeps bringing up the idea that its running this pattern.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

La Nina is basically dead. I have no clue why you and snowman19 keeps bringing up the idea that its running this pattern.

La nina being basically dead does not mean it's not going to torch. In fact, the last time a la nina dissipated (in 2023), January and February absolutely torched in the East.

Remember, the East has been in a cool pattern since August. We are due for a well above average temperature departure month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

La nina being basically dead does not mean it's not going to torch. In fact, the last time a la nina dissipated (in 2023), January and February absolutely torched in the East.

Remember, the East has been in a cool pattern since August. We are due for a well above average temperature departure month.

Define "well above average"....if you mean like +5F, I don't think you're getting that anytime soon.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

While some change to the weeklies is likely, La Nina’s are rarely cold in February. La Nina’s are very front loaded and usually torch the east by February. A SSW could bring some cold after February (regardless of the ENSO state) but Februarys in La Nina’s are notoriously warm. 

I don't think that will necessarily be the case this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

La Nina is basically dead. I have no clue why you and snowman19 keeps bringing up the idea that its running this pattern.

It's dead when the atmosphere says it is.....you don't suffer from the symptoms of many viruses until they are essentially "dead", but you probably don't consider yourself "healthy".

[chubbs]

33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

La nina being basically dead does not mean it's not going to torch. In fact, the last time a la nina dissipated (in 2023), January and February absolutely torched in the East.

Remember, the East has been in a cool pattern since August. We are due for a well above average temperature departure month.

The subsurface temperature distribution in the Pacific is similar to 2023, but the surface is different. Relative warmth is more west-based this year. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Define "well above average"....if you mean like +5F, I don't think you're getting that anytime soon.

+5F above average or a Top 10 warmest month. Since 2015-16, that has happened at least once in the November-March period, except for 2018-19:

15-16 - November, December, March

16-17 - January, February

17-18 - February

18-19 - None

19-20 - January, February, March

20-21 - November

21-22 - December

22-23 - January, February

23-24 - December, March

24-25 - November, March

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

+5F above average or a Top 10 warmest month. Since 2015-16, that has happened at least once in the November-March period, except for 2018-19:

15-16 - November, December, March

16-17 - January, February

17-18 - February

18-19 - None

19-20 - January, February, March

20-21 - November

21-22 - December

22-23 - January, February

23-24 - December, March

24-25 - November, March

Not happening DJF in the east this season.

Take that to the bank.

Only shot is March if the SSW doesn't materialize for some reason, but it should.

 

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark @Bluewave @DonSutherland1

I’m wondering if this accounts for part of the lack of KU events? It’s been occurring since 2022. Look at how far off shore and south it forces the baroclinic zone
 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark @Bluewave @DonSutherland1

I’m wondering if this accounts for part of the lack of KU events? It’s been occurring since 2022. Look at how far off shore it forces the baroclinic zone
 

The Gulf Stream has an impact on storms/storm tracks. if the warmth is farther south, than all things being equal, storm tracks should be farther south. Another likely factor is how quiet the subtropical jet has been. That further reduces Miller A-type opportunities.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Gulf Stream has an impact on storms/storm tracks. if the warmth is farther south, than all things being equal, storm tracks should be farther south. Another likely factor is how quiet the subtropical jet has been. That further reduces Miller A-type opportunities.

100%. The STJ has been virtually non existent so far. Definitely one (top) factor, the other being the very southward displaced Gulf Stream and very cold waters off shore along the northeast and mid-Atlantic coast from all the arctic cold and very strong NWerly wind events we’ve been seeing. In response, the baroclinic zone is way south and east along the anomalously displaced Gulf Stream 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Gulf Stream has an impact on storms/storm tracks. if the warmth is farther south, than all things being equal, storm tracks should be farther south. Another likely factor is how quiet the subtropical jet has been. That further reduces Miller A-type opportunities.

Yea, it doesn't help, but more to it.

[GaWx]

From Eric Webb this morning:

The is one of the most impressive mid-winter collapses of La Nina I’ve ever seen. 

If you’re still in a Nina, you are definitely not supposed to see westerly wind bursts drive this deep into the Pacific, with or without an MJO event

[snowman19]

From Eric Webb this morning:
The is one of the most impressive mid-winter collapses of La Nina I’ve ever seen. 

If you’re still in a Nina, you are definitely not supposed to see westerly wind bursts drive this deep into the Pacific, with or without an MJO event

No one in their right mind is going to argue that this Niña isn’t collapsing or that we aren’t going to see a substantial El Niño develop this spring, granted. My issue is this fantasy going around twitter (NOT saying Webb is saying this) that a full blown El Niño pattern is going to take over by February. That wishcast is going to go down in flames and it’s completely preposterous. It takes months for the atmosphere to flip from one completely different ENSO state to another. There is always a lag of months, no matter what. And it’s not going to reach the El Niño threshold (+0.5C) in region 3.4 until probably late spring, if not early summer 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

December 2025 PDO: -1.01

Record 72nd straight month (and completes 6 straight years) of negative PDO values:

2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.52 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.98
2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.14 -2.75 -2.71
2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.23 -1.31 -2.63 -2.38 -2.28 -1.81 -2.40 -2.21
2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.08 -2.41 -2.55 -2.54 -2.48 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66
2024 -1.57 -1.34 -1.54 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.01 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03
2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.67 -2.64 -4.21 -3.23 -2.32 -2.37 -1.54 -1.01

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No one in their right mind is going to argue that this Niña isn’t collapsing or that we aren’t going to see a substantial El Niño develop this spring, granted. My issue is this fantasy going around twitter (NOT saying Webb is saying this) that a full blown El Niño pattern is going to take over by February. That wishcast is going to go down in flames and it’s completely preposterous. It takes months for the atmosphere to flip from one completely different ENSO state to another. There is always a lag, no matter what

Thanks, snowman.
 Yeah, Eric Webb of course knows this and thus isn’t at all saying that a full blown Nino pattern will set in by Feb. But he is as I already posted excited about E US potential in Feb as he’s been saying in recent days that a 2014 type of Feb is becoming increasingly possible. We’ll see but at least he’s laying this out and not being shy.

 Any guess yet as to the strength of the upcoming El Niño assuming it actually does occur?

[roardog]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, snowman.
 Yeah, Eric Webb of course knows this and thus isn’t at all saying that a full blown Nino pattern will set in by Feb. But he is as I already posted excited about E US potential in Feb as he’s been saying in recent days that a 2014 type of Feb is becoming increasingly possible. We’ll see it but at least he’s laying this out and not being shy.

 Any guess yet as to the strength of the upcoming El Niño assuming it actually does occur!

I can’t believe we would see another strong Nino after just having a very strong one so recently. 

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, snowman.
 Yeah, Eric Webb of course knows this and thus isn’t at all saying that a full blown Nino pattern will set in by Feb. But he is as I already posted excited about E US potential in Feb as he’s been saying in recent days that a 2014 type of Feb is becoming increasingly possible. We’ll see it but at least he’s laying this out and not being shy.

 Any guess yet as to the strength of the upcoming El Niño assuming it actually does occur!

Not a clue yet. Wayyyy too early

[LakePaste25]

35 minutes ago, roardog said:

I can’t believe we would see another strong Nino after just having a very strong one so recently. 

it’s possible but we need to wait and see. 2014-2015 was headed that way until it fizzled out in the fall. Ultimately, we did go strong/super the following year (15-16). 23-24 was pretty much inevitable that it would be strong due to all of the warmth held up in the west pac after 3 nina’s. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, roardog said:

I can’t believe we would see another strong Nino after just having a very strong one so recently. 

I would agree, but we still seem to be mired in the "what can go wrong, will go wrong"-101-ways-to-not-snow regime. I think we are transition out of that here in the 2nd half of the decade given the cold, but obviously still a ways to go given the lack of snow and residence time of the MJO in phase 8.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

59 minutes ago, roardog said:

I can’t believe we would see another strong Nino after just having a very strong one so recently. 

It has happened before. That decade between 1982-92 had 3 back-to-back-to-back: the super el nino in the early 80s (82-83), a double-season strong el nino in 86-88 (which peaked in summer 87), and another strong el nino in the early 90s (91-92), though its warming effects were muted due to Pinatubo.

However, that was during a +PDO strangehold.

[roardog]

58 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

it’s possible but we need to wait and see. 2014-2015 was headed that way until it fizzled out in the fall. Ultimately, we did go strong/super the following year (15-16). 23-24 was pretty much inevitable that it would be strong due to all of the warmth held up in the west pac after 3 nina’s. 

Maybe this will do something similar. Flip the PDO this year then get a stronger Nino next year. I could see something like that playing out.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Just now, roardog said:

Maybe this will do something similar. Flip the PDO this year then get a stronger Nino next year. I could see something like that playing out.

I just hope the flip +PDO will last long term, and not fizzle out quickly like it did following the dissipation of the strong el nino in 2016.

[michsnowfreak]

47 minutes ago, roardog said:

Maybe this will do something similar. Flip the PDO this year then get a stronger Nino next year. I could see something like that playing out.

The last thing I want to think about when we aren't even to mid winter is a strong nino next winter.